Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[BLS]

1 hour ago, Stuie said:

Good effort from the Arpege. Also well done GFS with wet bulb levels yesterday.

Did well and as most thought the DP and Wet Bulb levels were enough for a good amount of snow at low levels! Lots of reports across Kent Surrey and London of 1-5cms of settled snow  

[nick sussex]

Just now, MJB said:

I have to say this snow needs a boost of adrenalin if MBY is going to get anywhere near 10cm 

 

Some further North are going to do very well IMO 

Be grateful you’ve got snow !  you’ll have something to moan about if you lived on the south coast ! Yes certainly the north could do very well , some major drama is likely up there . 

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Stuie said:

Look where the centre of the low is Midnight Thurs.

Mate looks like the precipitation only gets as north as north mids and then heads away!!its even further south than ecm!!!!fax is a bullseye for myself!

[Wingman Blue]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

I have to say this snow needs a boost of adrenalin if MBY is going to get anywhere near 10cm 

 

Some further North are going to do very well IMO 

Be careful what you wish for! With FI currently at 24h does anybody know whether it’s washout or whiteout?

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, Stuie said:

Look where the centre of the low is Midnight Thurs.

They obviously think a shift south is coming in the models. That would put the snow line almost to the M4 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Mate looks like the precipitation only gets as north as north mids and then heads away!!its even further south than ecm!!!!fax is a bullseye for myself!

It’s further south than every model. A fascinating spell of weather to watch how things develop.

[keithlucky]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So GFS 00z is interestingly now showing the 10-15 day cold spell.  Let’s see if this firms up.  Plenty of snow in Redhill currently.

 

BFTP

Late spring Strat warming still having effect. 5inc of snow in Swansea still snowing and another batch of snow on it's way.

Edited March 8, 2023 by keithlucky

[MJB]

Just now, Wingman Blue said:

Be careful what you wish for! With FI currently at 24h does anybody know whether it’s washout or whiteout?

I'm just saying  and yes it's nice to see but it will have to pep up to produce the amounts I have seen forecast - of  course I will be thrilled to be proved wrong as the LP gets corrected South

[DAVE_ALLEN]

We need to keep an eye on this feature, developing out in the, Atlantic, its quite a nasty little feature  

AIf the track of this feature takes it through the English Channel, if the colder remains in place in the south to bring very large falls of snow. 
 

One to keep an eye on?

Edited March 8, 2023 by DAVE_ALLEN

[nick sussex]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Mate looks like the precipitation only gets as north as north mids and then heads away!!its even further south than ecm!!!!fax is a bullseye for myself!

There should be a decent amount of precip extending north from the occlusion . As to where the low finally ends up still a few more runs to nail that down.

[MattStoke]

Given that the fax charts were further north than every model just 12 hours ago, I wouldn’t count on the model output shifting southward to a line with it.

[Paul]

Locking this in 5 minutes - new snow watch and model discussion threads on the way...

[MJB]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

They obviously think a shift south is coming in the models. That would put the snow line almost to the M4 

Even with the 528 so far North ? Or are you thinking there is enough cold air embedded 

[mhielte]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

They obviously think a shift south is coming in the models. That would put the snow line almost to the M4 

Isn't the low already on its way back south by then anyway? It does pivot back overnight into Friday. If we could see the Thursday 18z FAX it would likely be a little north, no?

[Paul]

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