Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[lassie23]

Maybe this is a little taster and the full effects of the SSW will be felt further into March.

[Battleground Snow]

Spot the odd one out. All for Friday morning apart from arome which doesn't go that far out on wxcharts

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM in agreement with GFS. Heavy snow N Wales- N Midlands- N England conurbations early Friday.

[geordiekev]

So another flip to extended cold on latest GFS, Impossible to have any faith beyond this coming weekend

Edited March 8, 2023 by geordiekev

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Spot the odd one out. All for Friday morning apart from arome which doesn't go that far out on wxcharts

Ecm keeps it as snow for central mids north and also 850s stay below zero just north of brummy throughout!!!it waay better than gfs!!

[Stuie]

11 hours ago, Stuie said:

Arpege 12z ensembles (only posting as many have faith in it`s precipitation accuracy)

Weds 8am                                                    Weds 10PM                                            Thurs 6pm

   

First 2 agree with, third in the air.

Good effort from the Arpege. Also well done GFS with wet bulb levels yesterday.

[Ali1977]

I still think Amber warnings are possible, and maybe another yellow on Friday as the area of precip heads south.  

Something like this maybe, with UKV charts !! 
The Southern Pennines look like a good shout for over a foot. 

[Stuie]

Real time charts from the GFS/NCEP:

 

The 2 LP`s to our West are drawing air straight from the arctic. 

 

EdIt: And this shows a Greenland high, not Griceland.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Stuie

[nick sussex]

A pretty poor ECM run after the fun and games of the next 48 hrs .

Removes another chance of frontal snow for northern areas and doesn’t even have that cold shot from the nw .

The UKMO and GFS are more interesting but in the UK always bank on the worst solution for coldies as that’s normally what verifies ! 

Anyway let’s see what delights await us from the Grinches ensemble suite when it comes out soon!

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A pretty poor ECM run after the fun and games of the next 48 hrs .

Removes another chance of frontal snow for northern areas and doesn’t even have that cold shot from the nw .

The UKMO and GFS are more interesting but in the UK always bank on the worst solution for coldies as that’s normally what verifies ! 

Anyway let’s see what delights await us from the Grinches ensemble suite when it comes out soon!

I mentioned the same thing yesterday!!it looks better over the next few days but then after that not as good where as  ukmo and gfs look not as good with everything further north but then looks good for next week!!gota laugh sometimes!!

[nick sussex]

For northern areas tonight we are back to the model drama because of relatively small differences in track and make up of the low .

Ironically the UKMO fax charts have finally dropped the low tracking the furthest north and the GFS is now on the naughty chair .

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

For northern areas tonight we are back to the model drama because of relatively small differences in track and make up of the low .

Ironically the UKMO fax charts have finally dropped the low tracking the furthest north and the GFS is now on the naughty chair .

Just seen Nick, the FAX is now following yesterdays OP run. For fax sake...

[MattStoke]

Just now, nick sussex said:

For northern areas tonight we are back to the model drama because of relatively small differences in track and make up of the low .

Ironically the UKMO fax charts have finally dropped the low tracking the furthest north and the GFS is now on the naughty chair .

The boundary between mild and cold air looks to be right on my doorstep. Models also show an annoying wedge of less cold air just to my west. Right on a knife edge tomorrow night. Be interesting to see what happens.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

For northern areas tonight we are back to the model drama because of relatively small differences in track and make up of the low .

Ironically the UKMO fax charts have finally dropped the low tracking the furthest north and the GFS is now on the naughty chair .

I reckon gfs 06z will correct south next run!!!this new gfs is pretty atrocious even at just 2 or 3 days out!!!

[DAVE_ALLEN]

The current time fax chart 

shows a stationary gently waving front across southern England. The fax called a very similar  position a Few day ago and  I concur with @nick sussex that normally  in the reliable fax charts perform best. 
the snow line is bringing large falls across southern England currently away from the immediate coast. 
the fax shows small occlusion waves coming into the SW now. Expect these to pep up the snow even more keeping the snow falling in similar locations all day. 

Edited March 8, 2023 by DAVE_ALLEN

[sheikhy]

Wth latest fax gets the front only as far as south/central mids for thursday friday!!gfs are you gona be put to sleep once again!!

[DAVE_ALLEN]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Wth latest fax gets the front only as far as south/central mids for thursday friday!!gfs are you gona be put to sleep once again!!

I’d say it won’t get that far. Fax chart versus radar.  The precip is heading due east. Very little north or south corrections. The fax takes the snow south today before another Perturbation brings more snow east later this evening.  The best guide for later will be the next 0z fax issued later on today. 

[nick sussex]

There could certainly be some fireworks in the north with the sweet spot getting some very large snow totals .

I certainly think an amber warning will be issued if that fax chart verifies .

[DAVE_ALLEN]

Just now, nick sussex said:

There could certainly be some fireworks in the north with the sweet spot getting some very large snow totals .

I certainly think an amber warning will be issued if that fax chart verifies .

North downs certainly seem to be the sweet spot currently.  What time is the next fax out @nick sussex? 

[Updated_Weather]

Based on current output, would you say south of the M4 is now looking more sleet/rain and more snow towards north of M4 and East Anglia & home counties?

[Stuie]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Wth latest fax gets the front only as far as south/central mids for thursday friday!!gfs are you gona be put to sleep once again!!

Look where the centre of the low is Midnight Thurs.

[Craigers]

Been watching these corrections in detail for last 3 days. To me it seems like the ECM is the middle ground solution with north Midlands and South Yorkshire Pennines being the sweet spot.

Also north Wales could do very well too!

[DAVE_ALLEN]

Just now, Stuie said:

Look where the centre of the low is Midnight Thurs.

That’s corrected south massively in just 24 hours expect that trend to continue.  
the current wave in southern counties has set up a boundary outflow in the tropopause and these features can draw low centres towards them impacting the incoming low’s trajectory 

[MJB]

I have to say this snow needs a boost of adrenalin if MBY is going to get anywhere near 10cm 

 

Some further North are going to do very well IMO 

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

North downs certainly seem to be the sweet spot currently.  What time is the next fax out @nick sussex? 

I think around 10.30 ish which should give the T24 hrs to 6 am tomorrow.