Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

By Thursday morning the snow starts again down south 

If this happens it’s a shutdown day for schools etc Thursday in many areas 

1 minute ago, goosey007 said:

 

Including rain yeah Tim ?!

Nope, snow and grupal - see under date and time stamp. You can select all precip if you like 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

If this happens it’s a shutdown day for schools etc Thursday in many areas 

I think that’s already guaranteed , lots of them !! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I tell you what if the 18z comes off parts of the North and the Midlands through Wales could be pasted moving into Thursday and Friday..This snow also starts to push back SE bringing others into the game..and the more we get in the game the happier and saner this place will be.

Just a quick heads up to all of those who have put in a remarkable shift over the last few days and worked tirelessly bringing us the latest! Well done chaps

And what a gr8 time to have a snow watch thread...Big heads up from me

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Rain All Night]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Harmonie vs the latest radar and again the short range models are struggling with the NE extent of the ppn.

this for 10pm.

a lot could have surprise snow fall on there dorstep in the morning.

Meteociel strikes again... the times it shows in the top left are in French time, 1 hour ahead of us, so that chart is for 9pm 

[MattStoke]

No move south or north from the Arpege for Thursday, people will be glad to hear

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, RainAllNight said:

Meteociel strikes again... the times it shows in the top left are in French time, 1 hour ahead of us, so that chart is for 9pm 

So all time stamps on Meteociel are for French time so an hour out? Never knew that!? 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Meteociel strikes again... the times it shows in the top left are in French time, 1 hour ahead of us, so that chart is for 9pm 

Thanks

still behind the curve even at 9pm

[Andypvfc]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

No move south or north from the Arpege for Thursday, people will be glad to hear

Except us Cabbies who have got a Birmingham Airport pick up tomoz night, and 4 Manchester Airport jobs Thurs

[Ali1977]

Arpege is outrageous by Friday morning now as the snow comes south 

[Rain All Night]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

So all time stamps on Meteociel are for French time so an hour out? Never knew that!? 

The blue ones are yeah. You can tell by looking at the run time in the top right which is in UTC/GMT, and adding the number of hours that is shown in brackets e.g. (+3h)

[goosey007]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

If this happens it’s a shutdown day for schools etc Thursday in many areas 

Nope, snow and grupal - see under date and time stamp. You can select all precip if you like 

So that says 40cm for my location cannot be correct there would Amber warning out by now surely ……odd

[gaia rules]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Arpege is outrageous by Friday morning now as the snow comes south 

Has France closed its borders to snow?

[Garthvader]

52 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Heads up, I think we may trial a snow watch thread tomorrow - this will free this thread up somewhat from posts speculating on amounts of snow, what the models are showing for their backyard for snow. It has been an exceptionally trying day for moderators in here in this respect. Tomorrow may see this thread return to some nearer normality..

Please do

[Hotspur62]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

No move south or north from the Arpege for Thursday, people will be glad to hear

If there is one person on this thread  who deserves snowmageddon it is you Mattwolves3.I love your posts that have me in stitches but at the same time are keeping it realSure I am speaking for everyone on this great thread when I say that.Apologies mods not strictly on subject but felt it needed saying so thank you once again.

Back on to the weather it’s the most exciting weather period this winter and it’s spring!The strength of the high in Greenland has I feel been a small factor in causing this weather modelling chaos and I hope all parts see snow in the next 72hours.Also chances are another cold push next week as well but think we need to get to Saturday first and then things may become clearer on that front.

enjoy the snow those that get it.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

So that says 40cm for my location cannot be correct there would Amber warning out by now surely ……odd

I’m pretty sure it’ll happen before the heavier stuff tomorrow afternoon , Ian Ferguson mentioned it in his forecast that they could go Amber if certain areas look like getting hit harder 

[geordiekev]

Not liking this 18z longer term. The sysyems barell through quicker from Thursday out West & mobility returns with the trop PV largely returning to normal play. 12z had it slightly disorganised towards the end of the run, not sure where this will go.

Can we eek out a Scandi High before months end? Enjoy the radars & the white stuff this week those lucky enough to see it

[Justin1705]

Well.... the 18z arome is very good for tonight, tommorow and actually Thursday/Friday for my location. 
 

I've kept quiet recently and waited for the cold and snow to be upon us before posting.

there is a 50 mile correction north on most models tonight. The met office is giving a good 18 hours of snow for central England over the next 24.

it goes without saying that Thursday/Friday is not out of the question and will come down to the track of the 2 inbound low pressure before it can be pinpointed further and track forecast improved

as expected lots of chops and changes down to the last hour, so take it as it comes and watch that lamppost.

most importantly enjoy  

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Justin1705

[DJ Fart]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Arpege is outrageous by Friday morning now as the snow comes south 

I'm on that tiny white bit in East Anglia.

[Justin1705]

7 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

So that says 40cm for my location cannot be correct there would Amber warning out by now surely ……odd

It all comes down to certainty, right now it's still along way out in forecast terms. Check back tommorow and if charts stay the the same or improve( for snow) then expect amber maybe even red warnings of over a foot over snow is modelled from 3 Atlantic weather systems in 3 days.... wouldn't be suprised

[near northampton]

3 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Not liking this 18z longer term. The sysyems barell through quicker from Thursday out West & mobility returns with the trop PV largely returning to normal play. 12z had it slightly disorganised towards the end of the run, not sure where this will go.

Can we eek out a Scandi High before months end? Enjoy the radars & the white stuff this week those lucky enough to see it

Scandinavian Highs are as rare as Rocking horse poo, yet they are seemingly mentioned wished for hopecasted several times daily in this thread, do you know the last time there was such a feature? I don't suspect several years ago

[Allseasons-Si]

Up here looks good for keeping the cold weather going out to the weekend but even the south look to be back in the cold weather by the weekend.

 

[Dancerwithwings]

18z UKMO HD for tomorrow evening 

[Mapantz]

ARPEGE snow chart:  Warning: does not represent the final layer on the ground, does not take into account settlement, melting.

[geordiekev]

9 minutes ago, near northampton said:

Scandinavian Highs are as rare as Rocking horse poo, yet they are seemingly mentioned wished for hopecasted several times daily in this thread, do you know the last time there was such a feature? I don't suspect several years ago

Not sure, prob only the 3rd time I've mentioned in my time here, as often don't verify or aid us. Seems the model ahead of the chart I posted wants to agree though & is poss next point of interest 

Edited March 7, 2023 by geordiekev

[PsychedelicTony]

Probably not for the model thread but judging by todays posts its a temporary free for all:

Forgetting the North / South extent of any precipitation what you really don't want in this spell is daytime clearing skies.

Some snow cover this morning in Wrexham - quickly melted. Sun felt strong, warm even at 11am.

An off-topic post, but something to consider next few days.