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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

Cheshire Freeze

By Cheshire Freeze
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the Spring chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Just a quick question!!if the ukv is a high resolution model why is it playin catch up with the ecm?!!you would think being a higher reso model that it would perform better inside 2 or 3 days?!!

It's not playing catch-up, it's just a different solution and one doesn't influence the other. The ECM isn't necessarily correct and isn't the holy grail of models either. It's been just as chaotic as the rest of the comparable models in recent days. 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
28 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I was shocked at the ECM ensembles . I thought the op would be effectively the furthest south and the fact there’s a cluster even further south was a surprise . I’m not expecting anything from the low Thursday so don’t have any skin in the game . I think on the whole I’m objective as I can be when posting . Anyway I’m sure there will be more changes to come ! I can understand many coldies nerves are shredded by the recent goings on !

Had a look myself, I agree, it looks pretty clear ECM ensembles see the danger zone for Thursday/Friday as between M4 and Pennines (including Wales), could change of course.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
4 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

It's not playing catch-up, it's just a different solution and one doesn't influence the other. The ECM isn't necessarily correct and isn't the holy grail of models either. It's been just as chaotic as the rest of the comparable models in recent days. 

The ECM/GFS certainly have been better with the frontal system in the south tonight, the UKMO/UKV frankly have been dog turd tier bad with it.

However past performance does not mean the UKMO will be wrong, nor does it mean the ECM will be right in the future.

18z ICON throwing out a much stronger low into Wednesday afternoon which makes the zone considerably further NW. It feels a little overdone now to me however.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

6pm icon ..

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Outdoors, Nature, Plant, Rainforest, Tree, Vegetation

This is definitely trending north, looked at one point S of M4 event, now north of M4

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

That was on the south coast 12 hours ago.

I'm not surprised though, ICON was almost as terrible as the UKMO/UKV with how far south it had the frist front.

Not surprising that once the model latched onto where the front will *really* be tonight, that it would also shift the second feature northwards al;ong with it.

With that being said that feels a little overdone to me, purely due to have a much stronger LP (982 vs 985mbs)

For the southern half of the south (if you know what I mean!) tonight ALWAYS was going to be the main event, it was the UKMO/ICON combo that fooled people into thinking that the afternoon would be the main event, particular the 12z suite of those two. 

Edited by kold weather
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

This is where the 18z ICON is for 06z tomorrow:

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Outdoors

Just for balance for all those laughing at the south due to tomorrow afternoon moving northwards. For us the 2nd was always the bonus, sadly we've lost it but we've still got a rather tasty little number tomorrow AM.

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john mac1 Enthusiast

john mac1

Posted
  • Location: waltham abbey, essex 142ft a.s.l
  • Location: waltham abbey, essex 142ft a.s.l
Posted
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

This is where the 18z ICON is for 06z tomorrow:

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Outdoors

Just for balance for all those laughing at the south due to tomorrow afternoon moving northwards. For us the 2nd was always the bonus, sadly we've lost it but we've still got a rather tasty little number tomorrow AM.

Have we? 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Don’t forget there’s still 2 events tomorrow. Morning in the south and evening in central areas. Almost all areas from Southampton to Leeds seeing snow from one or the other 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Nature, Outdoors, Plant, Rainforest, Tree, Vegetation, Atlas

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Plant, Vegetation, Outdoors

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Popular Post
Posted

I wouldn’t write off snow tomorrow evening in the far south just because one run of a cannon fodder model shows it.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

This is where the 18z ICON is for 06z tomorrow:

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Outdoors

Just for balance for all those laughing at the south due to tomorrow afternoon moving northwards. For us the 2nd was always the bonus, sadly we've lost it but we've still got a rather tasty little 

Just now, MattStoke said:

I wouldn’t write off snow tomorrow evening in the far south just because one run of a cannon fodder model shows it.

Agreed 

 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
5 minutes ago, john mac1 said:

Have we? 

Given every model bar maybe the UKV has got at least some snow for most of the south I'd say yes its still obviously on. If anything agreement has strengthened for it this evening.

I'd say your area probably is on the NE extent of the possible snow area, and getting precip later means any snow that does settle will probably be less compared with further W/SW.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

C'mon guys we are all adults on here,... i think and this tug of war between the nation N/S/E and west is getting tiresome

the latest ICON gives most of us a good snow event starting in the south then working up the country as the week progesses...

animbso8.thumb.gif.4bbddc340031a008fa6ce2b2c4811eaf.gif

i'd be happy just to see some good snow falling,...with settling a bonus but i think there will be some more surprises in the not too distant future,...chill and enjoy and please be nice

as for me,...if i don't see any snow,..i would still be as exited as others that will get the snow

good luck all and take care of the vulnerable at such times if the snow becomes disruptive

have a good evening😉

 

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

6pm icon ..

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Outdoors, Nature, Plant, Rainforest, Tree, Vegetation

Thats the first system Tim right?

 

So no real change

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Thats the first system Tim right?

 

So no real change

2nd system that one

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

2nd system that one

Yes meant that creeps up country not skirts off

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Tomorrow evening icon moves to ecm with snow widely across central england!!

But then moves Thursday’s much further north. The ICON not going with the first low north, second low south mantra.

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Tomorrow evening icon moves to ecm with snow widely across central england!!

The one that was originally forecast south and is now in danger of hitting northern England?

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