Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Guest]

The low slips east on this run, a little snow for the south but pretty much a non event.  Better synoptics if you want the cold to last but looking cold and dry (away from windward coasts) for many out to the end of next week if this ECMWF run were to verify.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

where would the snow line be at 144?

It’s slower coming in so not as cold as we’d like, but it’s better than being way north!! Let’s see if the pub run sticks to its guns!!

All for fun at this stage, I’m well aware it can all go wrong !! 

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Quite a snowy ecm, very different to ukmo

Game back on!!

For the majority it’s very dry ?! Where is the snow apart from far north and eastern coastal areas? 

[supernova]

1 minute ago, DecSeventeen said:

This will likely be ignored as I've never posted on here before, however I've been a regular winter lurker since 2018, so really it's about time I got on with it and actually did a post.

This whole situation, the question of whether the low will move through too far N, too far S, give snow to the N, to the S, bring in mild air too quickly and so on and so on is one that isn't going to be resolved for several days yet, this is something that's been said many times already yes I know, just thought I'd restate that.

One thing that I think is important to note though is that opinions on any individual run/model is going to vary greatly dependent on the location of the poster - anyone in southern England will say a run that shows rain for them a poor run, even if that same run has a major snow event for northern England. And I'm not in any way suggesting that this is a bad thing, because yes of course everyone wants the snow in their location, so everyone will post their opinions based on that, but just want to highlight the way that that can make following the situation pretty confusing for everyone since so many different opinions are getting thrown around, based on location.

For my location, something like the GFS 12z today would be the absolute sweet spot, I wouldn't want things ending up much further N or S of that scenario however we all know that in the intervening 6 days, it's pretty likely to end up somewhere else. Wherever things end up, the only certain thing is that there's going to be a whole lot of changes and swings in the next few days, and I think the best thing to hope for at this stage is just that the low ends up tracking in a position which will give snow to somewhere in the country. We all hope that somewhere will be our respective locations, but ultimately it's just nice to have such exciting model output to watch despite being pretty late in the season.

Don’t be timid….all opinions welcome especially when they are more model centric than IMBY type stuff. As you say, great to have something to talk about.

[Guest]

168hrs, here come the south-westerlies:

 

Disappointing 12z runs for the cold/snow hunters with the cold/snow potential being narrowed down by the run.  Iberian heights increasing by the end of next week look odds on favourite.

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s slower coming in so not as cold as we’d like, but it’s better than being way north!! Let’s see if the pub run sticks to its guns!!

All for fun at this stage, I’m well aware it can all go wrong !! 

Hardly gives a dusting though I’m afraid 

[Ali1977]

Cold still holding on till the weekend (no 15c here) It’s another option of many but not a snowy one really!! 

[January Snowstorm]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

For the majority it’s very dry ?! Where is the snow apart from far north and eastern coastal areas? 

Cork!!

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hardly gives a dusting though I’m afraid 

 

[NewEra21]

Rather meh ECM in terms of snow, convective showers window is very short and the low doesn't really deliver. So we lose out both ways in snow terms.

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Cork!!

Ahh ok,  best placed in the regional thread then as referring to a “snowy ecm” in this thread will be taken the wrong way 

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, supernova said:

 

Although can’t help but feel this has trended more snap than spell overall. Fine margins as ever.

yes - still too far North, i can see even places like Lincs, Hull, & Newcastle only getting a days worth of showers - 2 inches at best

[DecSeventeen]

2 minutes ago, supernova said:

Don’t be timid….all opinions welcome especially when they are more model centric than IMBY type stuff. As you say, great to have something to talk about.

Thanks, don't plan on being a super regular poster like a lot of you guys on here (all doing a brilliant job), but I'll try to from time to time

[Cloud 10]

ECM 12z 168hrs Atlantic having another try after 1st fail.

 

[Guest]

Don't worry, the next system brings snow...what could possibly go wrong!!

[Tim Bland]

At least we get a snowy breakdown at the end of the week I suppose 

[January Snowstorm]

So while the longterm is looking fragile this evening, it is important to recognise that the uppers for Monday to Wednesday are very very good with minus 8s across a swathe of the country. Anything that falls in this window is likely to be of snow!! Plenty of surprises can pop up within 24 hours. The main thing is to get the deep cold in!

[nick sussex]

The Azores high trying to move ne , some residual heights to the north and the PV chunk trying to edge south.

A lot going on. I wouldn’t be writing the obituaries for next week just yet .

[Aiden2012]

Just another possible outcome, nothing is decided yet. But atm things are looking kinda alright in the next couple of days.

[Guest]

192hrs, the cold tries to fight back but look at those Iberian heights again:

[Winter Hill]

26 minutes ago, Kieran1960 said:

-8 ain’t enough at this time of the year to produce anything worthy 

 

-8 upper can produce snow.  I’ve had snow in April with -6 uppers

 

Edited March 3, 2023 by Paul
No need for the antagonism

[NewEra21]

3 minutes ago, Kieran1960 said:

-8 ain’t enough at this time of the year to produce anything worthy 

The real deep cold is just to the north of Scotland, shame we couldn't keep the northerly going long enough to tap into that.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Kieran1960 said:

-8 ain’t enough at this time of the year to produce anything worthy 

I know your not anywhere near old enough to remember but late April 81 with -6c uppers gave an almighty blizzard over the spine of the country.

[nick sussex]

Depending on how long that slack flow can last there’s a chance the March minimum record could go for the UK . 

The ECM keeps sufficient cold uppers in northern Scotland , snow cover , clear skies , in valleys we could see some frigid conditions.

PS day 9 ECM , not bad !

[mulzy]

It can snow with 850s close to zero at any time of the year.  850s are not the be all and end all for snow - so many other parameters in play.

Edit:  the 12z ECM is close to being a great run.

Edited March 3, 2023 by mulzy

[nick sussex]

All aboard the ne bus !

The ECM doesn’t quite get there this time . We needed more energy heading se but overall not a bad run .

We are living in on our nerves though with small margins making a big difference to our weather.