April 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Derecho]

23 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

You were saying? Please see the stats for April

 

As you can see April was poor for more southern areas 

Why have you only posted the 1991-2020 maximum temperature anomaly? Compare it to the the mean which is close to average and above the 1961-1990 average (see below). The maps you posted have S England maxima around -0.5C below average not several degrees below average as you claimed.

 

This was your original post which was completely wrong. I didn't make any inferences about sunshine or rainfall and indeed with the exception of rainfall in the SE or perhaps sunshine in the SW, the figures for the month really weren't anything unusual at all.

If anything the warm, dry and sunny weather in the NW UK was more anomalous.

On 22/04/2023 at 14:54, TwisterGirl81 said:

I would be shocked if the CET in April for southern England wasn't at least a few degrees celcius below average, it is has been a cool spring!

Compared to Springs in previous decades this is nothing and we are milder then the 1961-1990 average up to this point albeit with a poor March weatherwise.

Edited May 3, 2023 by Quicksilver1989

[Sunny76]

6 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Why have you only posted the 1991-2020 maximum temperature anomaly? Compare it to the the mean which is close to average and above the 1961-1990 average (see below). The maps you posted have S England maxima around -0.5C below average not several degrees below average as you claimed.

 

This was your original post which was completely wrong. I didn't make any inferences about sunshine or rainfall and indeed with the exception of rainfall in the SE or perhaps sunshine in the SW, the figures for the month really weren't anything unusual at all.

If anything the warm, dry and sunny weather in the NW UK was more anomalous.

Compared to Springs in previous decades this is nothing and we are milder then the 1961-1990 average up to this point albeit with a poor March weatherwise.

This still doesn’t get away from the r fact it’s been a poor spring, and a cold one.

Stats can say whatever as far as I’m concerned.

[summer blizzard]

A cooler mean maximum is why it feels subdued but this is far from the worst spring to grace our shores. 

[Sunny76]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

A cooler mean maximum is why it feels subdued but this is far from the worst spring to grace our shores. 

Never said it was the worst, but it’s been a poor one in recent times.

[snowray]

Night temps have been pretty high while daytime max temps very average or below, plus it’s been windy and cloudy a lot of the time so it gives the impression of below average. No warm settled spells either of course, but I suspect that northwestern areas did better overall.

[Dancerwithwings]

Just wondering will J10 be posting/showing the updated tables any time soon ?

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Just wondering will J10 be posting/showing the updated tables any time soon ?

No idea but as you may have noticed I posted a summary of April CET results and here is how the top ten from March annual report fared, normally if you are near the top previously, and score in the top ten or so, you will hold your rank, if you are middle of table you might lose a couple and if you are in bottom quarter for month you will likely slide down 5-10 spots at this stage. I don't have 11th-20th readily available from March but if you are in that zone, apply similar logic to get an estimate of where you may be after this month.

 

Rank __ Forecaster _____ April CET rank

01 ___ leo97t __________ 4

02 ___ davehsug _______10 

03 ___ PIT ______________18

04 ___ Typhoon John __ 53

05 ___ DR(S)NO ________14

06 ___ feb1991blizzard _60

07 ___ Summer Sun _____ 2

08 ___ Reef ______________ 5

09 ___ Earthshine _______54 

10 ___ rwtwm ___________ 7

Edited May 3, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

ExcelApr 2023 CET.xlsx

PDFAPR 2023 Summary.pdf

Monthly

2 players got it spot on.

virtualsphere and Summer Sun

Seasonal

A new 1-2-3 with

 Leo97t , davehsug and rwtwm 

Overall

No changes in the overall 1-2-3 with

Leo97t, davehsug and The PIT

[Relativistic]

On 02/05/2023 at 11:08, Scorcher said:

We've probably been accustomed to the leaves coming earlier over the last few years because there have been so many warm Aprils. I recall 2008 being very late. Most trees were pretty bare a few days into May and then when the warm spell started they were almost fully in leaf within 2 days.

Can't remember 2008, but we were well into May during chilly 2013 before things leafed out down in Essex. Want to say the oaks struggled into June.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Relativistic

[Relativistic]

10 hours ago, snowray said:

Night temps have been pretty high while daytime max temps very average or below, plus it’s been windy and cloudy a lot of the time so it gives the impression of below average. No warm settled spells either of course, but I suspect that northwestern areas did better overall.

Indeed. Mean wind chill might be a good way to measure how cold we perceived April to be, since a number of people have mentioned it. Anyone got any statistics for mean wind speeds and/or wind chill?

Edited May 4, 2023 by Relativistic

[Scorcher]

6 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Can't remember 2008, but we were well into May during chilly 2013 before things leafed out down in Essex. Want to say the oaks struggled into June.

2012 was an odd one as well- many trees came into leaf remarkably early (horse-chestnuts were in full leaf here before March was out) due to the exceptional March but then progress ground to a halt through that cold April, meaning some of the larger hardwoods had very few leaves well into May if I recall rightly.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP ends at 76.9 mm -- scoring tables will be adjusted. Would say look in tomorrow, I will be busy off-line most of today.  

Scoring is adjusted now (as of Saturday), will edit my work on Monday back at base (currently away for a few days). My excel files are not accessible on mobile devices. Once adjustments are confirmed, will post updated version after current post. 

Edited May 6, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Updated EWP final scoring report, with spring seasonal ranks added ... 

 

RANKS _ FORECASTER ___ POINTS ___ AVG ERROR (rank) __ April result ______________ Spring total score (rank)
            

 1. (1) February1978 _______ 35.85 ____ 27.80 (7) ______ 36th (56 mm) __________________ 11.74 (19)    

 2. (4) Leo97t _______________35.69 ____ 25.20 (2) _____ 21st (65 mm 2nd entry) _________ 16.10 (4)  

 3. (7) bobd29 ______________ 35.64 ____ 27.06 (4) ______10th (69 mm) ___________________ 11.67 (20)                

 4. (t11) Jeff C _______________35.24 ____ 29.88 (12) _____ 3rd (75 mm) ____________________ 16.78 (2)

 5. (2) Mulzy ________________ 33.93 ____ 27.88 (8) ______42nd^ (45 mm) __________________ 10.25 (27)           

 6. (9) Stationary Front _____ 33.28 ____ 27.64 (6) ______16th (86 mm) ____________________  17.11 (1)

 7. (6) snowray _____________ 33.09 ____ 28.70 (9) _____ 25th (63.5 mm) ___________________ 14.92 (7)                                   

 8. (15) Dr(S)No _____________32.79 ____ 30.52 (14) ____ 14th (85 mm 2nd ent) ____________ 12.03 (16) 

 9. (17) Reef ________________ 32.36 ____ 29.48 (11) ____ 11th (69 mm 2nd ent) ____________ 15.62 (5)         

10. (3) _prolongedSnowLover __ 32.23 ____ 26.86 (3) _____ 43rd*  (46 mm, 1d late) __________ 12.24 (15)

11. (14) Midlands Ice Age ___ 32.19 ____ 32.64 (19) _____17th (67.2 mm) __________________ 13.69 (13) 

12. (22) freeze ______________ 31.95 ____ 31.92 (16) _____ 2nd (78 mm 2nd ent) ____________ 16.39 (3)

13. (13) virtualsphere ______ 30.96 ____ 33.64 (23) _____ 27th (92 mm) _____________________ 13.99 (10)              

14. (19) DiagonalRedLine ___30.90 ____ 33.52 (22) ____ 13th (85 mm) ______________________ 11.33 (22)                

15. (5) Emmett Garland ____ 30.29 ____ 33.48 (21) ____ 44th (43 mm) _______________________8.34 (38)

16. (t11) Feb1991Blizzard __ 29.96 ____ 32.48 (17) ____ 33rd (59 mm) _______________________9.43 (30)              

17. (23) seaside60 __________29.68 ____ 37.32 (34) ____ 15th (85 mm 3rd ent) _______________9.08 (32)

18. (10) jonboy _____________ 29.43 ____ 34.64 (25) ____ 37th (98 mm) ______________________ 10.67 (24)                

19. (18) Norrance __________ 28.98 ____ 33.04 (20) ____ 28th (92 mm 2nd ent) _______________ 8.03 (40)

20. (27) Weather Observer_ 28.58 ____ 35.40 (28) _____12th (69 mm, 3rd ent) ______________ 10.14 (28)

21. (31) summer8906 (4/5) _27.18 ____ 20.05 ( 1) _____ 9th (70 mm) __________________________ 8.56 (37) (1 of 2)     

22. (21) Don ________________26.77 ____ 31.68 (15) ____ 32nd (60 mm 2nd ent) _______________ 13.98 (11)        

23. (36) Mapantz ___________26.34 ____ 37.48 (t35) ____ 4th (73 mm) _________________________ 13.86 (12)

24. (8) cymro _______________26.11 ____ 36.88 (31) ____ no fcst _ _ _ _ _ _________________________1.77 (56) (1 of 2)

25. (16) Polar Gael _________ 25.03 ____ 39.68 (t38) ___ 53rd (27.2 mm) _______________________ 8.82 (34)

26. (25) J 10 ________________ 24.96 ____ 34.68 (26) ____ 38th (55 mm) _________________________ 9.00 (33)                             

27. (41) Summer Shower (4/5)_ 24.78____ 36.40 (29) ____ 1st (78 mm) __________________________ 14.97 (6)

28. (40) davehsug __________ 24.63 ____ 36.68 (30) ____ 7th (72 mm) __________________________ 12.02 (17)   

29. (26) Roger J Smith ______24.47 ____ 35.00 (27) ____ 35th (58.7 mm) _________________________ 5.42 (46)

30. (20) Godber1 ___________ 24.36 ____ 37.48 (t35) ____ 46th (42 mm) _________________________10.60 (25)               

31. (35) Methuselah ________24.17 ____ 40.08 (40) ____ 20th (65 mm) ___________________________8.73 (36)

32. (37) summer18 _________23.98 ____ 37.08 (32) ____18th (66 mm) ___________________________11.62 (21)               

33. (34) I Rem Atl 252 (4/5) _ 23.90 ____ 30.23 (13) ____ 23rd (65 mm, 4th ent) _________________ 14.00 (9) 

34. (44) dancerwithwings __ 23.35 ____ 41.04 (42) ____ 5th (81 mm) ____________________________ 10.38 (26)             

35. (24) daniel* ____________ 23.23 ____ 40.20 (41) ____ 47th (40 mm) ____________________________ 8.31 (39)

36. (33) Wold Topper _______22.91 ____ 38.80 (37) ____ 29th (61 mm) ___________________________ 10.76 (23)         

37. (29) syed2878 __________ 22.73 ____ 43.04 (44) ____ 34th (95 mm) ___________________________ 13.11 (14)

38. (28) noname_weather __22.48 ____ 39.68 (t38) ____39th (52 mm) ____________________________ 6.79 (41)                         

39. (47) Weather26 (4/5) ____22.31 ____ 29.15 (10) _____ 8th (71 mm) ____________________________ 8.74 (35) (1 of 2)

40. (53) stewfox (4/5) _______ 20.27 ____ 33.68 (24) _____ 6th* (77 mm, 3d late) _________________ 12.01 (18)

41. (42) Mr Maunder ________19.62 ____ 42.08 (43) ____ 30th (61 mm, 2nd ent) ___________________9.89 (29)   

42. (38) rwtwm ______________18.93 ____ 45.08 (47) ____ 45th (43 mm, 2nd ent) ___________________9.09 (31)

43. (30) BlastFromThePast (4)__18.63 ____ 44.13 (46) ____ no fcst _ _ _ _ _ ___________________________ 5.02 (49) (1 of 2)

44. (32) SteveB ______________17.98 ____ 45.52 (48) ____ 55th (136 mm)  __________________________ 2.63 (53)

45. (43) SLEETY _____________ 17.21 ____ 43.20 (45) ____ 40th (50 mm) ____________________________ 5.16 (47)                       

46. (52) Frigid _______________17.14 ____ 48.52 (50) ____ 24th (90 mm) ____________________________ 14.15 (8)                             

47. (39) Thundery Wintry Shwr (4)_17.04 __ 32.58 (18) ____52nd (27.8 mm) ___________________________ 0.54 (59) (1 of 2)

48. (54) The PIT _____________ 15.63 ____ 48.40 (49) ____ 31st (60 mm) _____________________________5.04 (48)             

49. (58) Moorlander ________ 15.01 ____ 50.48 (52) ____ 22nd (65 mm, 3rd ent) ___________________ 6.54 (43)

50. (46) summer blizzard ___ 14.70 ____ 49.20 (51) ____ 51st (29 mm) _____________________________ 4.93 (50)

51. (50) shillitocettwo _______ 14.45 ____ 55.54 (56) ____ 41st (104 mm) ____________________________2.70 (52)    

52. (45) Let It Snow! (3/5) ___ 14.06 ____ 51.47 (54) ____ no fcst _ _ _ _ _ ____________________________ 3.89 (51) (1 of 2)

53. (49) Earthshine (4/5) _____13.31 ____ 37.31 (33) ____ 49th (35 mm) _____________________________2.26 (54)

54. (48) Kirkcaldy Weather (3/5) _12.94 ___ 58.30 (57) ____ no fcst _ _ _ _ _ ____________________________ 6.01 (45) (1 of 2)

55. (51) john 88b (2/5) _______ 11.56 ____ 27.10 ( 5) ____ no fcst _ _ _ _ _ ____________________________ (no entries)

57t. (79) chilly milly ___________7.60 ____ 66.94 (59) ____ 26th (62 mm) ______________________________ 6.29 (44)

57t. (81) Neil N (4/5) __________7.60 ____ 51.35 (53) ____ 19th (88 mm) ______________________________ 6.76 (42) (1 of 2)       

68. (66) catbrainz (2/5) _______ 5.12 ____ 59.10 (58) ____ no fcst _____________________________________0.32 (60) (1 of 2)

74. (76) Metwatch (4/5) ______ 3.57 ____ 69.30 (60) ____ 50th (33 mm) ______________________________1.90 (55)

76. (73) sunny_vale (2/5) _____ 3.14 ____ 53.45 (55) ____ 54th (22 mm) ______________________________ 0.14 (61) (1 of 2)

80. (80) Pegg24 (2/5) _________ 2.16 ____ 81.40 (61) ____ no fcst _ _ _ _ _ _____________________________ (no entries)

82. (---) Plymsunshine (1/5) __ 1.34 ____ 40.90 (--) _____ 48th (36 mm) _______________________________ 1.34 (57)

____________________________________________

 5.3 (5.6) 1981-2010 average _33.73 ___ 27.36 ( 5.4) ___ rank 23.1, 64.8 mm _________________________12.94

14.7 (16.7) consensus _______ 30.87 ___ 34.18 (24.5) ___ rank 19.0, 65.0 mm _________________________11.83

16.2 (16.8) 1991-2020 average__29.89 ___ 29.24 (10.1) ___ rank 25.4, 63.2 mm _________________________10.02

20.3 (15.2) 1993-2022 average _ 28.17 ___ 30.92 (14.4) ___ rank 32.2, 59.8 mm _________________________ 8.14

=================================

* stewfox scored from 1st level, 0.9 points late penalty. ... this moves next five scores (1st-5th) ahead from scoring levels 2nd-6th.

* prolongedSnowLover scored from 42nd level, drops one rank to 43rd due to one day late penalty of 0.3 points.

^ Mulzy scored from 43rd level, ranked 42nd due to above.