April 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Sunny76]

25 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Not even a cold spring fairly close to average to just above and that's using the 1991 to 2020 average for here.. although Scotland could be below average. In general Joe public memories don't much further back from a days. So if get a few chilly mornings they'll say the last week was cold.

Well in my book it has been cold. 10-12c in late doesn’t feel warm. The average means nothing. 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Don said:

The cold 'snap' we have just had perhaps not had as much impact on the CET as expected?

Had expected something slightly colder, but the snap is looking a 3-4 day affair at best and the sunshine has kept maxima higher than anticipated. Suspect will be on 8.3 tomorrow, with a slight rise to see month out. a finish around 8.5 or 8.6 degrees likely. One of those months that ends up a little above average but very little warmth, not had many uniform months temp wise for a long while. Theme has tended to be anomalous warmth with bursts of short lived cold. 

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, Don said:

The cold 'snap' we have just had perhaps not had as much impact on the CET as expected?

Hasn't been far below average at all- 13C this afternoon which is very average. Not really a cold spell at all.

[Don]

37 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Hasn't been far below average at all- 13C this afternoon which is very average. Not really a cold spell at all.

Agreed, have not really noticed a cold snap at all the last few days, in fact apart from the Easter weekend, this week has been the driest and sunniest of the month!

Edited April 26, 2023 by Don

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back down to 8.2C -0.3C below average. Rainfall still at 57.9mm 103.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.3c to the 26th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

8.3c to the 26th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

A gradual increase from today until the end of the month.

[snowray]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

8.3c to the 26th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

Bank!!!

Had high hopes for the recent cold/cool snap, alas it was barely a one day event.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Don said:

A gradual increase from today until the end of the month.

Yes 3 more days, suspect a finish of 8.5 or 8.6 degrees, slightly above the average. Nothing special. 

[Roger J Smith]

By the numbers it has been quite cool the past three days, CET means of 7.1, 5.0 and 7.1. That 5.0 on the 25th is colder than all 25th of Aprils since 1772 except these: 

1799 (4.8), 1808 (3.2), 1827 (4.4), 1829 (3.5), 1848 (4.9), 1853 (4.1), 1873 (3.2), 1908 (1.8 - record), 1929 (4.9), 1950 (3.2), 1981 (3.3), 1989 (3.6) and 2017 (4.6)

(1813 and 1826 were 5.2) (1833 with the very warm May was only 5.4)

1884 and 1903 were not quite as cool but had notable cool spells overlapping. 

So on the whole it looks like about a once a decade or perhaps once every two decades kind of cool setting for late April (in CET). I noticed that especially by 20th and 21st century standards the number of milder days (10 or higher) was quite low this April compared to most, I am sure we will add a few now but so far only four of those, only the really cold Aprils of the distant past (and 2021) did worse than that. Various really cold Aprils (1782, 1837, 1917, 1941, 2021) had a slightly higher mean on the 25th. 

So it was 14th coldest in 252 tries. 

[Roger J Smith]

Also worth noting that the 1991-2020 average is 9.0 and 1993-2022 is 8.9, so when you say somewhat above normal that is only relative to 1981-2010 at 8.5. 

Our consensus was 9.0 and looks fairly sound. The current EWP by the way is 65 mm, which was our consensus but the end point there now looks fairly close to 80 mm. 

[Frigid]

On 20/03/2023 at 11:59, Frigid said:

8.4C and 90mm. Thanks 

cmon you can do it!!

[richie3846]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

By the numbers it has been quite cool the past three days, CET means of 7.1, 5.0 and 7.1. That 5.0 on the 25th is colder than all 25th of Aprils since 1772 except these: 

1799 (4.8), 1808 (3.2), 1827 (4.4), 1829 (3.5), 1848 (4.9), 1853 (4.1), 1873 (3.2), 1908 (1.8 - record), 1929 (4.9), 1950 (3.2), 1981 (3.3), 1989 (3.6) and 2017 (4.6)

(1813 and 1826 were 5.2) (1833 with the very warm May was only 5.4)

1884 and 1903 were not quite as cool but had notable cool spells overlapping. 

So on the whole it looks like about a once a decade or perhaps once every two decades kind of cool setting for late April (in CET). I noticed that especially by 20th and 21st century standards the number of milder days (10 or higher) was quite low this April compared to most, I am sure we will add a few now but so far only four of those, only the really cold Aprils of the distant past (and 2021) did worse than that. Various really cold Aprils (1782, 1837, 1917, 1941, 2021) had a slightly higher mean on the 25th. 

So it was 14th coldest in 252 tries. 

That's really quite interesting, given that the last 3 days cold wasn't caused by particular potent Arctic air. Yes we had some arctic feed but it was relatively weak and indirect, and brief.  Maybe genuine Arctic air could have given more sun and lifted day temperatures higher. The semi Arctic air mixed with other air masses seemed to really scupper the sunshine the last couple days, and helped to make the mixed air colder than it might have otherwise been in brighter conditions. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.2C, -0.4C below average. Rainfall up 69.4mm 123.7% of the monthly average.

Local forecast suggests an 8.5C to 8.7C finish here so average really for us.

[LetItSnow!]

An interesting month perhaps in a climatological sense as coming in around 8.6C is +0.7C above average for old times yet around -0.4C below average for the christmas pudding. So while we’re all talking about how rather cool it feels this may have felt rather mild forty years ago.

Interesting how perceptions have probably changed about what our weather should be like, considering that since 1988 almost every year has featured what would have once been considered exceptionally warm/mild at times. I was born in 2001 so for me it genuinely feels rather on the cool side. 

[Summer Sun]

8.3c to the 27th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like staying in the 8’s now.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks like staying in the 8’s now.

Yep and looking like the coldest month so far of 2023, compared to average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 8.3C -0.4C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

Looking like we will finish at 8.5C  -0.3C below the 1991 - 2020 average

[Summer Sun]

8.4c to the 28th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Probable finish either 8.5 or 8.6 degrees. Above the 61 to 90 average but less than a degree so, not many months recently have managed a lower deviation. Only a smidge above the 81-10 average. I'd describe it as near average, only slightly above if taking 81-10 mean which I do feel now is a more relevant benchmark than 61-90 which is skewed by a number of cold years in the 60s, year round and cold years outside winter in the 70s until the end, and a number of cold years in the 80s largely.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Maybe 8.7c with the warmer end ?

[Don]

2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Maybe 8.7c with the warmer end ?

Probably the upper limit for the CET this month?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 8.4C -0.4C below average. Rainfall 76.4mm 136.2% of the monthly total.

[damianslaw]

13 hours ago, Don said:

Probably the upper limit for the CET this month?

Suspect a 8.6 finish. Will see.