April 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 7.5C  +0.4C above average.  Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

7.9c to the 8th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update _ 11.0 mm to 8th and GFS projects about 35 mm as grid average to 12z 25th. At 45 mm the projected map situation on 25th is slowly retrograding high pressure, a dry signal, so that 45 mm could persist to near end of month. 

The CET predictions from GFS would be cool for about a week, CET likely staying in high 7 range, then rather warm for second week of outlook, CET looks likely to make a steady rise towards 9,0 by 25th, the aforementioned retrograde would probably check any further rise around 25th if correct. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.7C +0.5C above average. Rainfall 11.7mm 20.9% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.1c to the 9th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Expect the CET may flatline or drop over the coming days, cooler uppers and lack of sunshine reason why, minima whilst not especially cold will be quite supressed as well, could be quite cold again by Friday and Saturday. By the end of the weekend a rise on the cards thanks to much higher maxima and minima don't look particularly cool as we pull in warmer uppers.

Still 3 weeks to go and hard to know where we will end up but odds increasing of another above average month, whether close to the average or something much milder remains to be seen. The last few months have been notable for their marked warm ups in the last third of the month, more so Dec, Jan and March, whereas Feb was just very mild throughout. 

[Don]

12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Still 3 weeks to go and hard to know where we will end up but odds increasing of another above average month

Increasingly more difficult to bet against now!! 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Increasingly more difficult to bet against now!! 

Yes odds of below average much lower than above it seems, always safer to go above than below, but they can pop out on occasion i.e. December. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.9C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall 18.5mm 33% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.4c to the 10th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.9C +0.5C above normal. Rainfall 28.4mm 50.6% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.4c to the 11th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

Latest EWP estimate is 30 mm with a similar amount to come by the 28th, a total of 60 mm which is just below both normal and our forecast consensus. 

GFS guidance suggests CET will be steady for a few days now, and will rise gradually to near 9.0 C by end of next week. From there, it appears likely to stall or rise a bit. Would say low 9s looking best at this point. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.8C +0.3C above normal. Rainfall 34.2mm 61% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.2c to the 12th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

May see another slight drop today, maxima was quite surpressed and a cold night in the offing, then a slow rise.

[Don]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

May see another slight drop today, maxima was quite surpressed and a cold night in the offing, then a slow rise.

My 9.0C guess could be close this month but probably a little too low still?!

[Metwatch]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

My 9.0C guess could be close this month but probably a little too low still?!

I did a final last minute change from 9.8 to 9.1 end of last month, so hoping it was worth it. It seems possible I could get quite close if nothing overly warm next 2 weeks. 

[Summer Sun]

8.1c to the 13th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.7C +0.2C above average. Rainfall 34.4mm 61.3% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP around 40-42 mm, looks to add just 15 mm more to end the month 55-57 mm. 

CET projections are back to being rather warm after some colder runs overnight. Not sure which trend may win out. 00z run would be 7.5, current run 9.5. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.5C  -0.1C below normal. Rainfall 43.4mm 77.4% of the monthly average.

[Sunny76]

On 10/04/2023 at 20:39, damianslaw said:

Expect the CET may flatline or drop over the coming days, cooler uppers and lack of sunshine reason why, minima whilst not especially cold will be quite supressed as well, could be quite cold again by Friday and Saturday. By the end of the weekend a rise on the cards thanks to much higher maxima and minima don't look particularly cool as we pull in warmer uppers.

Still 3 weeks to go and hard to know where we will end up but odds increasing of another above average month, whether close to the average or something much milder remains to be seen. The last few months have been notable for their marked warm ups in the last third of the month, more so Dec, Jan and March, whereas Feb was just very mild throughout. 

Regardless of that, we still had cold weather. A mild month doesn’t mean it didn’t feel cold.

[Summer Sun]

8.0c to the 14th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.5C -0.2C below average. Rainfall 43.4mm 77.4% of the monthly average.