April 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Summer Sun]

8.0c to the 15th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

A very average April so far relative the mean, the suggestion of something warmer in the third week enough to raise the CET significantly, now looks more muted, we will probably see a climb in the days ahead but not by much, meaning we could be looking on a nearer average finish than was looking the likelihood a few days ago, still 2 weeks to go and a change to something more substantively warmer to end of the month could still verify, but the trend is going the other way..

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update is now a good deal wetter, 48 to 49 mm has now fallen, and GFS maps show a grid average of at least 35 mm to 30th, giving an outcome of 83-84 mm. The CET projection is also quite cool, and after a few milder days it could begin to fall at times, so would not rule out high 7s to low 8s as the finish. 

[Frigid]

I know this is far-fetched but could we see another sub 7C April? If the models continue with its cold path then we could come quite close. Still, there's two weeks so changes will occur. My hunch is something close to the April 2016 figure of 7.5C.. the first time I've come under in a while. We shall see. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back up to 7.7C -0.1C below normal. Rainfall up to 44.4mm 79.1% of the monthly average.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like finishing below average now! Might have gone too high this time

[Summer Sun]

8.1c to the 16th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[LetItSnow!]

Watched Gavin's forecast and indeed it looks like a colder scenario is more likely to play out which probably means the C.E.T. will start to take a tumble.

I imagine after today it'll plateau then start to fall with perhaps a slow and steady decline.

I'd feel quite confident about a finish in the mid 7s to low 8s at this point. I think because we're already halfway through the month and its a warming time of year it is unlikely to go under 7 now because you'd need some quite extreme cold ala 1981/1908 and while there is some persistently cold/chilly weather on the way I don't think it's quite record level. I'm thinking of April 2016 which was similarly running close to normal and ended cold and ended up at 7.5C so maybe something like that. What's interesting to note is that if we do end up quite cool then that's two chilly Aprils in the past couple of years. Not much to note in older times but since we've seen so few cold Aprils since 1992 it's notable the shift.

Rainfall wise it's looking wet to me for the rest of April regardless of if it's cool or genuinely cold. Looking like a very wet March/April combo now. Good news as far as I'm concerned going into the summer!

[Weather26]

12 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Watched Gavin's forecast and indeed it looks like a colder scenario is more likely to play out which probably means the C.E.T. will start to take a tumble.

I imagine after today it'll plateau then start to fall with perhaps a slow and steady decline.

I'd feel quite confident about a finish in the mid 7s to low 8s at this point. I think because we're already halfway through the month and its a warming time of year it is unlikely to go under 7 now because you'd need some quite extreme cold ala 1981/1908 and while there is some persistently cold/chilly weather on the way I don't think it's quite record level. I'm thinking of April 2016 which was similarly running close to normal and ended cold and ended up at 7.5C so maybe something like that. What's interesting to note is that if we do end up quite cool then that's two chilly Aprils in the past couple of years. Not much to note in older times but since we've seen so few cold Aprils since 1992 it's notable the shift.

Rainfall wise it's looking wet to me for the rest of April regardless of if it's cool or genuinely cold. Looking like a very wet March/April combo now. Good news as far as I'm concerned going into the summer!

And if i was reading Gavin's video right it looks both May Day and the weekend of the Coronation could both be grim weather wise-still 2-3 weeks away on both so we shall see.

[Derecho]

Can imagine we'll see a drop early next week with a brief northerly before pressure builds back over us again. I'd probably say a finish in the early 8s is reasonable at this point if that scenario plays out.

It could stay colder for longer if we don't get a ridge of high pressure falling us after early next week as that would keep us in a cold air mass for longer. We could get something in the mid 7s if that is the case but as Letitsnow says, it would have to be an extreme prolonged cold plunge for us to go in the 6s. 

[Summer Sun]

8.3c to the 17th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

After a milder night than forecast an unexpected rise.

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.9C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP forecast from GFS fell a bit, current total is 47.8 mm, GFS now saying 20-25 mm grid average to end near 70 mm. A few days ago it was closer to 85 mm. CET looking like it will end up around 8 C. 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP forecast from GFS fell a bit, current total is 47.8 mm, GFS now saying 20-25 mm grid average to end near 70 mm. A few days ago it was closer to 85 mm. CET looking like it will end up around 8 C. 

An 8 finish would put is very close to the 61-90 average, just 0.1 degree over, can't recall the last time the CET was within 0.1 degree of the CET value, bang on average CET months seem very rare nowadays. It would also result in a very homogenous running mean for the month, never deviating too far from the average mean, again we don't tend to see such months anymore, much more swing in the CET values, or just sustained well abover average.

So far this April has felt exceptionally average on all fronts.

[Don]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

So far this April has felt exceptionally average on all fronts.

100% agree.

[Sunny76]

It’s been a chilly April as far as I’m concerned. We’ve had some nice sunny days, but there’s been a number of cool and cloudy ones that outnumber the pleasant ones.

The plus side, is the pollution levels are probably quite low due to the cold air and windy periods. 
 

Hard to believe it’s going to be May in less than 2 weeks. 
 

6-8weeks until the halfway point of 2023, then we start the slow decline back to the darker time of the year. The passage of time waits for now man lol.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 8C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

A slow rise up until this weekend then a pause / slight drop depending on how long the cooler spell of weather lasts. Looks like it will finish close to 91 - 2020 average for us at the moment.

Edited April 19, 2023 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

8.4c to the 18th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 8.2C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall still at 44.4mm  79.1% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.5c to the 19th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 8.3C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall 47.4mm 84.5% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.5c to the 20th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Below average month nailed in now!

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update, around 50 mm now, will finish around 65 mm on current guidance. CET will probably fall to near 7.8 C after several cold days, then may rise back towards low-mid 8 range with later warmup. 

[Don]

4 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Below average month nailed in now!

Compared to the most recent average yes and my CET guess very likely to be too high!