The Heat Haters Club 2023

[The PIT]

UKMO is a horror show mid 30's if that comes off.

[The PIT]

Looking at the UKMO high res run this brings the 20 degree 850's across up so add 16C to 18C to that and you're looking at 36C to 38C in places. Normally I'd allow less but adding extra for the warm seas and the hot air being in place for a few days before hand. Luckily it looks like a short spell of nasty weather.

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, SollyOlly said:

I wasn't cold today, it was ok! Depends on location, I guess. Lovely fresh, crisp morning! Temperature dipped when a shower came through, though.

I was hopeful that this thread could be wrapped up until 2024, but there may be a little sting in the tail coming up...hopefully not serious heat, but the humidity could be annoying though. Still, with the last day of meteorological summer tomorrow, what a relief to have avoided anything too heavy other than a couple of weeks in June. 

I'm glad we didn't tap into that 40 plus heat

[legion_quest]

55 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Looking at the UKMO high res run this brings the 20 degree 850's across up so add 16C to 18C to that and you're looking at 36C to 38C in places. Normally I'd allow less but adding extra for the warm seas and the hot air being in place for a few days before hand. Luckily it looks like a short spell of nasty weather.

I suspect it will downgrade from those highs once the systems get more of a hand of what the tropical storm front in America does after it's moves back into the Atlantic, but yeah, we're getting some sort of plume early next week and the heat will mainly be from humidity.

[Cheshire Freeze]

It’s not going to reach mid 30s outside of the SE in September.

As Nick L said, it’d take something spectacular to feel unpleasant now at this stage of the year, the sun just isn’t strong enough (akin to early/mid April) in a week or so time.

I personally stopped worrying about excessive heat 2 weeks ago now.

In 35 years I can’t remember one September where I felt the weather was oppressively hot.

Edited August 30, 2023 by CreweCold

[Don]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

It’s not going to reach mid 30s outside of the SE in September.

As Nick L said, it’d take something spectacular to feel unpleasant now at this stage of the year, the sun just isn’t strong enough (akin to early/mid April) in a week or so time.

I personally stopped worrying about excessive heat 2 weeks ago now.

In 35 years I can’t remember one September where I felt the weather was oppressively hot.

The closest I remember to being uncomfortably hot in September was 2016, which was in the SE.  However, the current charts do not look great for September, if you catch my drift?!  Just hope they tone it down like they did in July and have done in August!

[Frostillicus]

Last of the summer whine?

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

It’s not going to reach mid 30s outside of the SE in September.

As Nick L said, it’d take something spectacular to feel unpleasant now at this stage of the year, the sun just isn’t strong enough (akin to early/mid April) in a week or so time.

I personally stopped worrying about excessive heat 2 weeks ago now.

In 35 years I can’t remember one September where I felt the weather was oppressively hot.

I think it's going to be more of a humidity story. When we get the back end of hurricanes etc, the air is always stupidly humid

[Don]

10 hours ago, Pewkzii said:

I hope not fingers crossed  

Unfortunately, it looks even hotter for next week now....

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Don said:

The closest I remember to being uncomfortably hot in September was 2016, which was in the SE.  However, the current charts do not look great for September, if you catch my drift?!  Just hope they tone it down like they did in July and have done in August!

I’m seriously not even raising an eyebrow.

Im unlikely to be out walking around at the hottest part of the day (which will be a reduced period anyway compared to, say, July) and houses are unlikely to warm up too much due to the longer nights.

[Don]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I’m seriously not even raising an eyebrow.

Im unlikely to be out walking around at the hottest part of the day (which will be a reduced period anyway compared to, say, July) and houses are unlikely to warm up too much due to the longer nights.

I'm raising an eyebrow for the following season, but perhaps I'm getting a little too obsessed?!  

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I'm raising an eyebrow for the following season, but perhaps I'm getting a little too obsessed?!  

The thing is, the weather can easily flip cool very quickly after the initial heat burst. Even just to cut off the plume would see night temperatures drop quickly with any sort of undercut.

Edited August 30, 2023 by CreweCold

[Wold Topper]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I’m seriously not even raising an eyebrow.

Im unlikely to be out walking around at the hottest part of the day (which will be a reduced period anyway compared to, say, July) and houses are unlikely to warm up too much due to the longer nights.

Agreed CC, the hottest part of the day is greatly reduced in September, cools down quickly in the evening, no probs sleeping, 10am before you feel any warmth during the day,

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Wold Topper said:

Agreed CC, the hottest part of the day is greatly reduced in September, cools down quickly in the evening, no probs sleeping, 10am before you feel any warmth during the day,

Yes. September warmth is the best kind IMO. Not overly harsh at all.

[cheeky_monkey]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes. September warmth is the best kind IMO. Not overly harsh at all.

early May warmth and late Sept warmth are the DBs here due to the lovely cool/cold crisp mornings 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Both the 12z ECM and the 18z GFS have the Atlantic coming back in by the 9th…so maybe a short event anyway.

[legion_quest]

I think the problem we'll see with the plumey and settled weather is that it's coming with hot, stagnant air from the South.

So the heat wont be coming from the sun as much as from the hot air and humid conditions.

That's ALOT worse than just some late season sun because the evenings coming in sooner doesnt help with hot, wet air.

[The PIT]

UKMO and ECMWF both continue to float the idea still GFS shows a less hot outlook.

Our Record is 28.8C for September and uppers were lower then so 30C outside the SE is clearly obtainable so don't be so quick to dismiss mid thirties away from the south east. We also reached 27.7C in October.

Cloud amounts and rainfall will also be a factor on how high the temps could go. Hopefully the models will change but I no longer dismiss charts so easily.

 

[SollyOlly]

Looks like a late season (or early season, if it's autumn!) scare coming up. High humidity is just the worst, but we'll see how it goes. My two consolations are that at least we didn't get this type of filth in high summer, when it would have been even more impactful, and secondly my house is nice and cool after a reasonable summer. Last year it felt as there was no relief, pulse after pulse of heat, so the house never really cooled down. Whilst I would rather we didn't have a heat threat, at least it isn't coming on top of months of the same this time.

Let's hope for something brief that quickly goes 'bang'! Some stormy potential given the models, I hope. 

[simshady]

Glad that summer is over, good as it was. Looking forward to a nice autumn that gradually gets cooler leading into a (hopefully) cold winter.

[The PIT]

2 hours ago, SollyOlly said:

Looks like a late season (or early season, if it's autumn!) scare coming up. High humidity is just the worst, but we'll see how it goes. My two consolations are that at least we didn't get this type of filth in high summer, when it would have been even more impactful, and secondly my house is nice and cool after a reasonable summer. Last year it felt as there was no relief, pulse after pulse of heat, so the house never really cooled down. Whilst I would rather we didn't have a heat threat, at least it isn't coming on top of months of the same this time.

Let's hope for something brief that quickly goes 'bang'! Some stormy potential given the models, I hope. 

After the daft temperatures last year the house walls were warm to touch inside. If these those temperatures come the norm we will need to make sure the outside walls are all white.

[mike57]

Sunday temperatures here have downgraded by 1c, hopefully that trend will continue, now at Mike57 happiness zone +3

[SollyOlly]

Let's hope so, Mike! To be fair, we've had a pretty good run of horror models that then moderate over time...I am embarrassed to admit to a hint of panic on one occasion especially! Our luck can't hold out for ever obviously, but as other learned posters have pointed out September heat is/ should be different to July/ August heat. 

[The PIT]

Looking at the ECM charts for the 6th they have the 18c to 20C upper temperatures over us and the local forecast has 23C as a high. That doesn't correlate very well so adding just 12C to the upper temp gives us 30C. Todays is 6C to 8C so adding 12C to that gives us 18C to 20C. Local forecast is 17C however it's clouding over.  So 23C seems far to low. Perhaps winds of the sea will do us a favour.

[The PIT]

I think today proves my point Temperture hit 20C would have likely gone a bit higher if there was less cloud around. I've noticed the local forecast has added a degree on for Wednesday. Lets see what todays run say hopefully all shifted away eastward and we are in for perfect 23C temperaures.

[Frostillicus]

Is it actually possible for the models to pick up high pressure and not turn it into a humid sweat fest?