Ireland’s climate likely to cool

[Penguin16]

Very interesting report released yesterday by the Irish met office and various institutions, colleges within Ireland regarding the future climate of Ireland. 

While they anticipate the globe overall will continue to warm they found Ireland will likely cool due to the weakening of the Gulf Stream with an increase in storminess and a decrease in precipitation especially in the summer. 
 

Dr Gerard McCarthy from the Icarus research facility at Maynooth University “Some climate change is locked in and will happen but we will have a much less extreme experience if we hit those climate targets."

Dr McCarthy said one of the "surprising" aspects of the report is that there is an "element of cooling" in the North Atlantic.

"So this is really remarkable that an area of the world is cooling when the whole other part of the world is warming up. We think this is a slowdown in the Gulf Stream system," he said.

Dr McCarthy said the Gulf Stream is critical for Ireland's climate as a small island on the edge of a large ocean and explained how Ireland relies on that heat delivered by the ocean.

He said: "Without the Gulf Stream system the climate of Ireland would be much more like the climate of Iceland.

"We have evidence from observations and from climate models that the Gulf Stream system is expected to weaken with climate change going into the future.

"What that means for Ireland is that we could be looking at a relatively cooler, and now that depends on whatever else is happening and how much the Gulf Stream weakens.

"But a relative cooling and increase in storminess and a decrease in precipitation, particularly in the summer time."

Goes against any predictions I have seen thus far from the met office.

[LetItSnow!]

I would presume this would take into account the UK as well. I find this interesting. Perhaps I could see this occuring as weakened westerlies could lead to more general easterly weather than general westerly weather. This could maybe lead to stronger cold pools as well as I think many times Europe gets its cold pooling incinerated by blowtorch southwesterly winds. Without much of that we could still see quite notably cold pools (I've typed cold pool/pooling too much!). We do still see extreme cold from time to time. We haven't really seen any sign of this becoming the new norm so far though.

By cooler though I assume that means anually and that means they expect the cold winters to outweight potentially hot summers. If high pressure became a semi-permanent feature in the area then in summer that would probably lead to very dry and arid summers with occasional thunderstorms. Not including snow, that could lead to much drier winters that create drier ground and much more potential for baking hot weather. Perhaps after long, cold, cloudy and fairly snowy winters would be very dry summers with spells of 35-45C weather but cooler nights. In the summer of 1976 when the wind would turn more northerly then the temperatures would plummit to allow ground frost. Imagine a heatweave with a 40C max but lows in the mid teens.

I also imagine if high pressure became a semi permanent fixture over N Europe then summers could perhaps frequently alternate between very hot and very poor with less "typical" mixed summers. Perhaps in certain years the highs would retrogress allowing cooler northerly flows and lows to generate to our south. Summers like 2012 and 1988 could crop up against very hot summers.

Back to winter for the last time in this post, but perhaps we would see somewhat of a reversal of the norm. Like how blocking and cold weather is seen as quite rare, perhaps mild weather with "Bartlett" highs would be unusual and then there would be occasional times when it would flip to very mild conditions, but with increased global temperatures those mild spells would be perhaps even warm spells.

This sounds very much like a climate like Canada/North America with its wild variability.

It's all very interesting to think about, but we'll see. I don't think we've seen hints of this but this may be the kind of weather patterns we might see towards the mid and late part of this century.

I just imagined a doomsday type scenario where a cloud spraying experiment coincided with a blocking year over N Europe and having a year be like 4C below average 

[Summer8906]

Cooler, stormier and drier is an odd combination.

Wouldn't a weakening of the Gulf Stream mean less warm oceanic air, and therefore less vigorous depressions?

Or is the idea that there would be stormy and still wet winters, with dry summers?

Edited May 6, 2023 by Summer8906

[Don]

On 05/05/2023 at 18:25, Penguin16 said:

Goes against any predictions I have seen thus far from the met office.

Yes, I understand that whilst the Met Office do expect the Gulf Stream to shut down eventually, by then any cooling will be more than offset by climate change?

[Methuselah]

11 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, I understand that whilst the Met Office do expect the Gulf Stream to shut down eventually, by then any cooling will be more than offset by climate change?

I'm nae sure about that, Don: as long as planet Earth keeps rotating, and the equatorial Atlantic stays warmer than the Arctic, the Gulf Stream will never shut down. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Methuselah said:

I'm nae sure about that, Don: as long as planet Earth keeps rotating, and the equatorial Atlantic stays warmer than the Arctic, the Gulf Stream will never shut down. 

Ok, well weaken at least?

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Ok, well weaken at least?

Sorry, I was wearing my Chess Club hat! 

[Greyhound81]

I lot of climate science (and weather in general) goes over my head, but I thought that only a compete shutdown of the gulfstream would cause any cooling in Northern Europe, and any slowdown of the gulfstream would just reduce any warming, compared to other parts of the world? 

The gulfstream has has slowed a lot over the last 100 years.  If a slower gulfstream causes cooling, then why is the UK and Ireland still warming?  The cooling should have already started by now, if that was the case.

Is it the AMOC rather than the gulfstream itself that is slowing?  What does the Irish Met Office know that other climate scientists don't?

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Greyhound81

[Don]

44 minutes ago, Greyhound81 said:

Is it the AMOC rather than the gulfstream itself that is slowing?  What does the Irish Met Office know that other climate scientists don't?

Perhaps their take on what climate change could potentially mean for north west Europe?

Edited May 8, 2023 by Don

[Cheshire Freeze]

Isn’t the NAD shutting down one of the theories as to why ice ages trigger in the northern hemisphere?

I believe it’s to do with triggering a feedback. European winters become colder, ice advances and year on year it becomes cumulatively colder and ice takes longer to melt in the warm season.

 

[Dark Horse]

Interesting and we're usually a bit colder than Ireland in winter, not summer though that switches around.

Could be wrong but I'm pretty sure I heard sea ice this winter in the northern hemisphere was at it's highest level for some years.

[ANYWEATHER]

In other simplistic terms and words. ....nobody has a clue......

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, Dark Horse said:

Interesting and we're usually a bit colder than Ireland in winter, not summer though that switches around.

Could be wrong but I'm pretty sure I heard sea ice this winter in the northern hemisphere was at it's highest level for some years.

Not true... but this spring is having a very slow ice melt which is delaying the ice melt, leading to very high levels currently for the sea ice extent within the Arctic basin..

Is it caused by the Atlantic shutting down aa far as getting up into the Arctic?

MIA  

[ANYWEATHER]

42 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Not true... but this spring is having a very slow ice melt which is delaying the ice melt, leading to very high levels currently for the sea ice extent within the Arctic basin..

Is it caused by the Atlantic shutting down aa far as getting up into the Arctic?

MIA  

Surely the Artic had near or record breaking ice cover this Year of course Satillite era? Also I wonder with the displacement of cold air much further south this Spring why the Artic is having a very cold spring....

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

Surely the Artic had near or record breaking ice cover this Year of course Satillite era? Also I wonder with the displacement of cold air much further south this Spring why the Artic is having a very cold spring....

Not record breaking over the winter but a good to  average one .... however it has gone to relatively high levels in the last week or so. (see Climate change Arctic ice  for my latest up to date report)

Also the displacement of colder air to the south normally is caused by 'warmer' air pushing it out from the Arctic. This results (usually) in a relatively warmer temperature in the Arctic. This hasn't really happened this year until this spring.

MIA

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Surely the Artic had near or record breaking ice cover this Year of course Satillite era? Also I wonder with the displacement of cold air much further south this Spring why the Artic is having a very cold spring....

What's the 'Artic' -- lumpy stuff you put on your living-room ceiling? 

[Optimus Prime]

15 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Surely the Artic had near or record breaking ice cover this Year of course Satillite era? Also I wonder with the displacement of cold air much further south this Spring why the Artic is having a very cold spring....

Both points are incorrect. It has been a warmer than average spring and sea ice has been well below the 81-2010 mean.