When will the next warm, dry sunny month be?

[Summer8906]

Following on from a discussion on the Spring Moans chat, I've found the poll option now. So when will it be?

(Try not to be over-cynical but be as honest as you can...)

[Sunny76]

June 2023, with some warm sunny days. Turning hot in the second half with storms.

Early July will be cooler and more cloudy, with more unsettled wet days in the mix. Feeling humid, and it will also be cool at times. 
 

August will have a warm spell in the early part of the month, cool middle, and turning hot towards the end with storms. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Get a feeling June will be one of the better months as well. But I admit, some of this is based on hope. With the way Spring has gone, bar some brighter days, a drier June would make a refreshing change. 

[Sunny76]

5 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Get a feeling June will be one of the better months as well. But I admit, some of this is based on hope. With the way Spring has gone, bar some brighter days, a drier June would make a refreshing change. 

June I feel will be the peak of the summer. It will have some lovely long sunny periods, so we can enjoy those long evenings.

July will be the stinker of the summer months, with August still providing some nice sunny warmth.

A poor summer compared to 2022, but maybe not as bad as 2021. That’s how I think things will pan out.

 

[Summer8906]

14 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

June I feel will be the peak of the summer. It will have some lovely long sunny periods, so we can enjoy those long evenings.

July will be the stinker of the summer months, with August still providing some nice sunny warmth.

A poor summer compared to 2022, but maybe not as bad as 2021. That’s how I think things will pan out.

 

Quite an unusual combination. A July "rain sandwich" is rare; if July is bad one of the other two months normally is too. That said it did happen to varying degrees in 2009 and 1993.

[Sunny76]

4 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Quite an unusual combination. A July "rain sandwich" is rare; if July is bad one of the other two months normally is too. That said it did happen to varying degrees in 2009 and 1993.

I see this being a summer similar to 2009, but August wasn’t perfect that year either. The best month was June and the back end of May. 
 

Summer 23 will be average, and I don’t think we will see a daytime max above 33c.

[B87]

Summer 2009 wasn't that bad, I'd take it at the moment if August is slightly sunnier.

[Sunny76]

1 minute ago, B87 said:

Summer 2009 wasn't that bad, I'd take it at the moment if August is slightly sunnier.

Yeah. It was the best of the bad bunch of 2007-12, and I still prefer summer 2009 over 2019, 20 and 21. 

[Summer8906]

42 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah. It was the best of the bad bunch of 2007-12, and I still prefer summer 2009 over 2019, 20 and 21. 

I think that's probably true, despite the "barbecue summer" jibes.  June 2009 was definitely good. August 2009 was dry and frequently quite sunny here, though was let down by being distinctly cool on the cloudier days with a nagging breeze. I think there were very low SSTs at the time meaning that temperatures were lower than what they ought to have been.

Scoring the summers JJA, on a scale from +2 (good) to -2 (poor) for each month, with a half-weighting for June, due to July and August being the main holiday period:

2009, +2, -2*, 0 = -1

2019: -2*, 0*, -1 = -2

2020: -1, -1, -1 = -2.5

2021: -1, -1, -1 = -2.5

(* out of country for some or all of month, so partly based on second-hand information).

 

Edited May 6, 2023 by Summer8906

[Sunny76]

2 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I think that's probably true, despite the "barbecue summer" jibes.  June 2009 was definitely good. August 2009 was dry and frequently quite sunny here, though was let down by being distinctly cool on the cloudier days with a nagging breeze. I think there were very low SSTs at the time meaning that temperatures were lower than what they ought to have been.

The colder winters either side of this probably kept temps down.

It would be interesting to see if we will ever witness a period like that again, or have we now entered a much warmer period.

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

June I feel will be the peak of the summer. It will have some lovely long sunny periods, so we can enjoy those long evenings.

July will be the stinker of the summer months, with August still providing some nice sunny warmth.

A poor summer compared to 2022, but maybe not as bad as 2021. That’s how I think things will pan out.

 

I pray July will be reasonable, but that would be an adequate Summer. Perhaps with a few more stormy periods, which would have only have been the thing that let Summer 2022 down, aside from the fact it did get a smidge too hot at times. 

[Methuselah]

Well, given we've not had a single 'summer month' yet this year, June, July or August is my best guess! 

[Sunny76]

9 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

I pray July will be reasonable, but that would be an adequate Summer. Perhaps with a few more stormy periods, which would have only have been the thing that let Summer 2022 down, aside from the fact it did get a smidge too hot at times. 

London had a number of storms towards the end of August, but I think they were localised. I remember thunderstorms on a few evenings or overnight, although very brief.

Definitely have a feeling this summer will give us a widespread storm event.

[Summer8906]

Interesting that no-one has gone for July yet, but someone has gone for March!

In better news June seems to be clearly leading the way.

A bit early for a consensus, but the pattern so far is "June is likely to be good, but if it isn't, July won't be either".

Edited May 7, 2023 by Summer8906

[B87]

Why isn't August an option? Surely we will get over the crap August blips we have had since 2006. 2013, 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2022 were all decent Augusts. 

I think summer will start to arrive in mid June this year, with the first half being chilly, wet and cloudy like the last 3 months. July will be near normal and then August/September will finally be dry, sunny and warm.

Edited May 7, 2023 by B87

[Don]

18 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

It would be interesting to see if we will ever witness a period like that again, or have we now entered a much warmer period.

If we get another cluster of colder winters I see no reason why not.  Hopefully we are not yet passed the stage of getting a genuinely cold winter now, but time is probably running out considering the ongoing warming of the world?

[B87]

My new and updated predictions for the rest of 2023 at Heathrow...

May: 17c/10c, 70mm, 150 sun hrs

Jun: 19c/13c, 80mm, 130 sun hrs

Jul: 21/15c, 65mm, 170 sun hrs

Aug: 24c/13c, 10mm, 260 sun hrs

Sep: 22c/12c, 30mm, 180 sun hrs

Oct: 16c/10c, 70mm, 110 sun hrs

Nov: 12c/6c, 90mm, 70 sun hrs

Dec: 9c/3c, 40mm, 60 sun hrs

Edited May 7, 2023 by B87

[Summer8906]

On 07/05/2023 at 15:40, B87 said:

Why isn't August an option? Surely we will get over the crap August blips we have had since 2006. 2013, 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2022 were all decent Augusts. 

Partly to avoid there being too many options, and partly because August is so rarely decent that I think it's very unlikely (of those, I would replace 2018 and 2019 with 2007 and 2009 in the list of acceptable Augusts since 2006 - but even those were pretty average).

Edited May 13, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 07/05/2023 at 18:47, B87 said:

My new and updated predictions for the rest of 2023 at Heathrow...

May: 17c/10c, 70mm, 150 sun hrs

With the prospect of better weather this week hopefully the sun total will be somewhat higher than that, at least.

On 07/05/2023 at 18:47, B87 said:

Jun: 19c/13c, 80mm, 130 sun hrs

Jul: 21/15c, 65mm, 170 sun hrs

Grim, 1980 part two? 21C mean max for Heathrow sounds very low nowadays, 2-3 deg below average? While here in south Hampshire we've struggled with midsummer maxima in many recent years, the London area has always come out better, normally making around 22C (IIRC) in July even in poor summers. 21C in Heathrow would probably equate to 19C as a mean maximum in southern England away from the London area, one of the coolest Julys for a long time, even on recent poor form. Dull as well and slightly on the wet side. If that's the case I'm glad I probably won't be here!

On 07/05/2023 at 18:47, B87 said:

Aug: 24c/13c, 10mm, 260 sun hrs

Nice but unrealistic I fear.

On 07/05/2023 at 18:47, B87 said:

Sep: 22c/12c, 30mm, 180 sun hrs

Nice, and more plausible given that Sep is often decent.

On 07/05/2023 at 18:47, B87 said:

Oct: 16c/10c, 70mm, 110 sun hrs

Nov: 12c/6c, 90mm, 70 sun hrs

Dec: 9c/3c, 40mm, 60 sun hrs

A typically mild, dull and mostly damp end to the year I guess. Not what i'd want but pretty realistic. I am hoping for an end to the run of wet Octobers this year though!

Edited May 13, 2023 by Summer8906

[B87]

4 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Partly to avoid there being too many options, and partly because August is so rarely decent that I think it's very unlikely (of those, I would replace 2018 and 2019 with 2007 and 2009 in the list of acceptable Augusts since 2006 - but even those were pretty average).

Augusts 2009, 2012, 2013 were average.

Augusts 2016, 2019, 2022 were warm or hot and sunny.

August 2020 was warm and cloudy.

The rest were cool and/or cloudy.

I think that decade blip might be coming to an end though. August should be as warm and sunny as July on average.

[dryfie]

Pity that this month isn't given as a possible option.  As far as the west of Scotland it's shaping up nicely at the moment.

[Greyhound81]

On 06/05/2023 at 20:25, Summer8906 said:

I think that's probably true, despite the "barbecue summer" jibes.  June 2009 was definitely good. August 2009 was dry and frequently quite sunny here, though was let down by being distinctly cool on the cloudier days with a nagging breeze. I think there were very low SSTs at the time meaning that temperatures were lower than what they ought to have been.

Scoring the summers JJA, on a scale from +2 (good) to -2 (poor) for each month, with a half-weighting for June, due to July and August being the main holiday period:

2009, +2, -2*, 0 = -1

2019: -2*, 0*, -1 = -2

2020: -1, -1, -1 = -2.5

2021: -1, -1, -1 = -2.5

(* out of country for some or all of month, so partly based on second-hand information).

 

I am not sure why you gave August 2019 and 2020 the same rating as August 2021?  August 2021 was awful.  This is how I would rate 2019-2021.  Can't remember enough about 2009 to give it a rating. 

2019: -1, +1, 0 = 0.5
2020: 0, -1, +1 = 0??
2021:  +1, 0, -2 = -1.5

If  you give June a zero with a half-weighting is it still zero when you add the months together?

 

[Summer8906]

On 17/05/2023 at 01:02, Greyhound81 said:

I am not sure why you gave August 2019 and 2020 the same rating as August 2021?  August 2021 was awful.  This is how I would rate 2019-2021.  Can't remember enough about 2009 to give it a rating. 

2019: -1, +1, 0 = 0.5
2020: 0, -1, +1 = 0??
2021:  +1, 0, -2 = -1.5

If  you give June a zero with a half-weighting is it still zero when you add the months together?

 

Sorry, only just seen this; haven't been on here for a while.

To my mind all three Augusts were predominantly unsettled but with short spells of fine, sunny weather - the latter enough to save any of them from getting a -2.

2019 had around a week, finishing on the Bank Holiday weekend. 2020 had that intensely humid week just before mid month. 2021 was in fact bone-dry (IIRC) and sometimes sunny from the fourth Sunday (22nd) onwards. So all three, to my mind, were much of a muchness.

If you give June a zero with a half weighting, then it is still zero, yes. 0*0.5 - 1 + 1 = 0.

I certainly wouldn't give August 2020 a +1 here. True, it had that hot, humid week but the two-week spell following it was utterly horrendous, one of the worst spells of weather in August I can remember.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

... but in answer to the original question, it appears the correct answer was actually May.

I think the extremely sunny second half of the month caught many of us out by surprise!

From May 13th until yesterday - almost four weeks - we only had one predominantly cloudy day here: the 19th. Due to being split across two months no records will be broken by this spell, but this must surely have been one of the sunniest four-week periods on record in this part of the country.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Summer8906

[kold weather]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

... but in answer to the original question, it appears the correct answer was actually May.

I think the extremely sunny second half of the month caught many of us out by surprise!

From May 13th until yesterday - almost four weeks - we only had one predominantly cloudy day here: the 19th. Due to being split across two months no records will be broken by this spell, but this must surely have been one of the sunniest four-week periods on record in this part of the country.

Just to test your theory I've run the numbers for the last month (9th May-9th June) and it is indeed a very sunny period for SOME, though with very marked differences. For example if you lived in the E.Midlands its been distinctly average, meanwhile parts of the far south and west have done very well indeed.

Whilst it has been sunny locally, May 2020 still fairly comfortably beats it out (as does May 89 in Hampshire) even when taking the 9th May-9th June period, and whilst this spell has been sunny for sure, it actually isn't quite as drastically above average as you think it is (262hrs of sunshine vs an average of 212). My guess is there has been quite a few days where we've had low cloud till about 10am-12pm and then it rolls back around 6-8pm, so whilst the main chunk of the day is nice, the rest is cloudy. Certainly thats my recollection upto maybe the last week of May when it did turn legitimately sunny.

 

Edited June 9, 2023 by kold weather