Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[lottiekent]

After expecting nothing last night, ended up with an impressive light show and some near overhead thunder

[matty40s]

Just been out to mow the lawn and it's like a sauna out there, humidity is stifling, and I can see a small cell starting to grow North of Chester.

Got to drive South to Northants later, could be interesting!!

[Guest]

Interesting thoughts regarding the potential earlier arrival of the thundery mass towards the SE coast. Would be a shame further south if that cirrus field scuppered temperatures significantly enough to reduce convection. Further north up here it is very sultry indeed with hazy sunshine and hopefully we can get things initiated over the Midlands later without too much trouble from the aforementioned cloud. It's already approaching 20C here with stifling humidity in the 70s 

Hopefully, given it's cirrus, the sun can still get some decent heating in further south to get a wider spread of initiation later. I know the SE contingent gets excited over imports from France but it ain't half a pain with all the crud that comes with it! Just makes the already-tricky forecasting side more fraught with difficulty 

[Harry]

I got some thunder and lightning last night and a short spell of convective rain, which was enjoyable. Then had to go to bed around 2:30 just because I was tired, so missed some further outbreaks which is a bit annoying.

The sun is currently out here in N Kent and it is stiflingly warm.

I don’t feel I can call what might pan out. As @staplehurst says the storms over N France could dampen down the risk for some areas, or increase the risk for others (for elevated action). 

Definitely the most humid feeling day of the year. If the sun can stay out too that will only help boost chances.

Good luck all

[CoventryWeather]

Had a small storm about half 2 in Cov this morning. Some nice CGs and intracloud lightning - and some strange loud rumbles. 

Hopefully for another couple today - been a very convective year so far here in Coventry. 

[Newben76]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Interesting thoughts regarding the potential earlier arrival of the thundery mass towards the SE coast. Would be a shame further south if that cirrus field scuppered temperatures significantly enough to reduce convection. Further north up here it is very sultry indeed with hazy sunshine and hopefully we can get things initiated over the Midlands later without too much trouble from the aforementioned cloud. It's already approaching 20C here with stifling humidity in the 70s 

Hopefully, given it's cirrus, the sun can still get some decent heating in further south to get a wider spread of initiation later. I know the SE contingent gets excited over imports from France but it ain't half a pain with all the crud that comes with it! Just makes the already-tricky forecasting side more fraught with difficulty 

Luckily it's sunny and very warm/humid here to the south of London,. I was expecting clouds after last night's storm. Can see the clouds to the south but definitely looking positive for later.

[viking_smb]

Hopefully I wont get anything as plan to snowfoam and jet wash the cars today esp mine as Its covered in bird.... and tree sap, I dont use the halfords autoglym rubbish, I use the trade only autosmart stuff which is brill 

[Aiden2012]

It looks so unstable outside and I love it hopefully a good storm later

[Petorious]

Seems a perfect setup even looking across channel, I don't think that will hinder to much tbh. I been out first thing, cleaned car, cut lawn and was surprised how warm it was with a real humid feel to things.

[camturbo]

12 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

Hopefully I wont get anything as plan to snowfoam and jet wash the cars today esp mine as Its covered in bird.... and tree sap, I dont use the halfords autoglym rubbish, I use the trade only autosmart stuff which is brill 

Did mine yesterday but woke up to find dust all over it 

[Gonzolio Martinez]

Hazy sunshine here in Norwich - temps already 24°C, however humidity slightly lower than others at 61%

Hoping to see something today, though forecasts seem to show the main action all being to my west.

 

EDIT:

However, looking at the current radar and the wind directions on the V4 radar gives me some (possibly false) hope.

It also looks like the mass over France is heading in earlier than forecast, not sure if that's a good thing, could do with more heating to take place first.

Edited June 18, 2023 by Gonzolio Martinez

[Eagle Eye]

Err guys. I think that's called a good use of my new camera that one.

[ancientsolar]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Err guys. I think that's called a good use of my new camera that one.

Looks like something that's been shot out of a horror film ! Beautifully horrific Love it!

[Arnie Pie]

24 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Interesting thoughts regarding the potential earlier arrival of the thundery mass towards the SE coast. Would be a shame further south if that cirrus field scuppered temperatures significantly enough to reduce convection. Further north up here it is very sultry indeed with hazy sunshine and hopefully we can get things initiated over the Midlands later without too much trouble from the aforementioned cloud. It's already approaching 20C here with stifling humidity in the 70s 

Hopefully, given it's cirrus, the sun can still get some decent heating in further south to get a wider spread of initiation later. I know the SE contingent gets excited over imports from France but it ain't half a pain with all the crud that comes with it! Just makes the already-tricky forecasting side more fraught with difficulty 

A nice bit of instability over this part of the Midlands

[ANYWEATHER]

Best device of all and best tool Rainfall Radar ️️️

[Azazel]

Sun pretty much gone now so I concur that the stuff coming out of France will have put the lid on any chances here today.

Good Luck everywhere else. 

[The Tall Weatherman]

A loaded gun setup at 15z today !The 06z WRF is hinting at significant hail if storms can become discrete quickly.

Edited June 18, 2023 by The Tall Weatherman

[TropicThunder]

Not expecting anything here today anyway but I'd be concerned with that rain coming out of France if I lived further east. Looks like limiting surface heating and turning everything into a wet mess.

[minus10]

15 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

A loaded gun setup at 15z today !The 06z WRF is hinting at significant hail if storms can become discrete quickly.

As a novice on these diagrams @The Tall Weatherman, how do you deduce the significant hail risk from what is shown...is it because the cape stretches nearly upto 12km ?

Edit...think i have seen it...the 28% chance of hail in the sars reading box ?

Edited June 18, 2023 by minus10

[MR CB]

Last night was good for Eastbourne but it took a while to arrive - lots of IC ligthning - quite bright but the thunderstorm was elevated so thunder was a bit subdued...there were two cells I think and it was quite active out at sea but dropped in activity as it got closer...we had gusty winds and then heavy rain which was very welcome. Plenty of leaves and roof moss accumulating on the ground near drains from the run off. Pretty much all gone early this morning - we had some low level crud which had gone by 8am only to be replaced with Cirrus outflow. Looks like thundery rain is heading our way now so will be interesting to see how this interacts with our landmass later as temps rise.

[Eagle Eye]

First sneak peak at what my cameras got from the 2 storms.

[The Tall Weatherman]

12 minutes ago, minus10 said:

As a novice on these diagrams @The Tall Weatherman, how do you deduce the significant hail risk from what is shown...is it because the cape stretches nearly upto 12km ?

Edit...think i have seen it...the 28% chance of hail in the sars reading box ?

I do know that more SB cape suggests stronger updrafts and lapse rates contribute as well. I have also heard that straight hodographs aid large hail development. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[sheikhy]

Hot humid here!!no signs of storms just yet!!

[TROY]

Had a super thunder storm last night here in East Dene, started around mid night lasted till 2am lots of lightning but very little rain. Very warm again this morning.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Ellozee said:

I feel like the SE might be in for some action this afternoon. 

Family BBQ planned so it's pretty much guaranteed

If this thundery rain gets over and stays thundery, that two hits for itv meridians forecast yesterday evening lol