Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[cheese]

37 minutes ago, Sprites said:

This is the same storm I think

 

Yeah, same storm. The lightning frequency was insane. That’s the kind of thunderstorm we never get overhead here. 

Edited June 18, 2023 by cheese

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Well today, as much as we saw some decent structures and had a decent amount of activity, we was majorly hindered by a load of high level muck that significantly impacted early insolation and reduced the potential. Had we have had a clean blue sky and sun from the get go, then we could’ve seen some absolute beauties today. I noticed that Dan (Staplehurst) warned of this earlier in the day, and was right. 

Edited June 18, 2023 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[london-snow]

Absolutely hate this weather too hot and humid, No storms to reward this sultry endurance. 

[Andy Bown]

5 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yeah, same storm. The lightning frequency was insane. That’s the kind of thunderstorm we never get overhead here. 

Sometimes it’s better for it not to be overhead so you can enjoy a rare view like in the video! 

[Sprites]

Storm headed past the North Norfolk from the SE. 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Sprites

[Eagle Eye]

Got a decent bit of stuff this evening.

 

 

 

[Rufus Butterfield]

Not a total bust today (work wasn’t on either which was a plus) but a bit underwhelming.

 

 

Been thundering on and off from early morning to afternoon but all very weak, elevated storms. At least we get some decent rain.

[Azazel]

44 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Interesting this last week or so… sure there have been disappointments (myself included today, and 2 days last weekend!), but countywide generally there have been a good moment of storms, some of which locally have been pretty potent… not bad for halfway through June! Bit curious last time we had a run like this, for this long, at this time of year… I remember a late May early June a little bit similar, maybe a little over 15 years ago. But the storms were very short in nature, brief showers really. But booming thunder, good lightning, hail and rainbows! Maybe someone remembers.. 

business as usual in Hampshire though. Third summer running without a direct hit.

[The PIT]

17 minutes ago, Chris Thomas said:

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Chased near Peterborough this afternoon (camera photos to come) but any thoughts on this lowering? 

Looks like a beaver tail.

[Steve of Wycombe]

Absolutly boring in HIgh Wycombe. No thunder, lighening or heavy rain. A shower ran a few miles away according to radar late morning - we had nothing. MId afternoon onwards sporadic drizzle - we have had about 1ml. This on top of last week where we had two major storms miss us by a few miles on successive days. Cloudy and drizzly now - no direct hit for 18 years now. THere must be a similar story to the guy in Congelton - it really is too stange that is happens all the time.

 

[moochops]

5 minutes ago, Azazel said:

business as usual in Hampshire though. Third summer running without a direct hit.

Your time will come eventually I’m sure.  You have over two thirds of this summer remaining………. 

[Steve of Wycombe]

1 minute ago, moochops said:

Your time will come eventually I’m sure.  You have over two thirds of this summer remaining………. 

I too try to remain positive but last week flash flooding was repored in many nearby towns , Maidenhead, WAtford and Buckingham and is the same each year. I read on Manchster evening news website the headline today was yet another storm hits Manchester - it would be a mircale just to get one here.

 

[SilverWolf]

12 minutes ago, Azazel said:

business as usual in Hampshire though. Third summer running without a direct hit.

Sorry to hear that! It’s early summer though, plenty of time… 

[moochops]

3 minutes ago, Steve of Wycombe said:

I too try to remain positive but last week flash flooding was repored in many nearby towns , Maidenhead, WAtford and Buckingham and is the same each year. I read on Manchster evening news website the headline today was yet another storm hits Manchester - it would be a mircale just to get one here.

 

It’s true.  I watched a video of torrential rain in the city centre and Salford.  Yet here am I just 3 miles south of the centre and although I heard the rumbles of thunder I’ve just had light rain for the last 3 hours…….

But that’s the nature of the beast.  Hit or miss.  Sometimes you strike lucky, more often you don’t……

 

[Allseasons-Si]

This morning's storm was an epic one to say the least with long thunder and deep booms

here is a few stills from the first clip of three that i am going through now,going through the second one in a minute of which is the main one as the storm came overhead.

 

 

 

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook  

Sunday 23:00 - Monday 21:00

Overnight a few elevated showers with occasional lightning may occur behind the departing MCS, with the continued strong Theta-W. Energy is weak but there may be enough to spark a weak thunderstorm somewhere in the channel. Those should weaken by early morning hours. There may also be a few rumbles into the night from the storms currently pushing through the north of England but they should generally weaken and depart as the evening goes on.

As the surface heating kicks in, modest but in places strong bouyancy looks possible in the UK. Combine that lift with 600 J/KG of energy and we've got a slight risk day with scattered showers and weak thunderstorms possible in the UK.

Generally forcing is low (ish) relative to how much of it can be ingested by the storms and CAPE is too low to worry about the shear and hoe long the storms in the UK will last. Generally they'll be pulse-storms with a few longer-lived ones.

Turning attention to Ireland where CAPE in excess of 1,500 J/KG at the surface means thst storms can latch onto that bouyancy, providing vigorous convection. In the morning shear should be running parallel to the passing cold front out east, though its on the western extent of the shearing and so as it gets towards initiation in the afternoon, the shearing weaks to virtually non existant. So mainly pulse-storms look to be the mode of convection. The CAPE may be enough to produce clusters in some areas though.

A shortwave trough in the area, provides just enough forcing support for a moderate risk to be placed in Ireland. So a tentative low-end moderate has been placed in Ireland due to fairly good confidence of storm formation within that area, with the AROME being especially strong there.

Strong moisture and PWAT with low to the ground LCL's along with ample entrainment CAPE has meant that we've gone for a small severe risk for possible flooding in Ireland. Perhaps some small hail is also possible but unlikely to reach severe status.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Chris Thomas said:

.    

Chased near Peterborough this afternoon (camera photos to come) but any thoughts on this lowering? 

Looks like an inflow tail to me.

[Metwatch]

A bit of a whale's mouth earlier as the shelf moved in.

Nice chase today not as intense as last Sunday but very happy with the cloud structures about! 

[JR319]

Just had torrential rain here in Leicester and looks like there’s some more on the way. It’d be interesting to see what the 24 hour rainfall accumulations are for around here.

[Nantes storm factory]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Well today, as much as we saw some decent structures and had a decent amount of activity, we was majorly hindered by a load of high level muck that significantly impacted early insolation and reduced the potential. Had we have had a clean blue sky and sun from the get go, then we could’ve seen some absolute beauties today. I noticed that Dan (Staplehurst) warned of this earlier in the day, and was right. 

That's exactly the problem we had today. 

We needed the sun to heat the land. Things would have been so very different then.

[WeatherArc]

Next weekend continues to look interesting if you like storms.

GEFS has good support for atleast some decent instability. Looks like shear also around but depends on where/when the trough sets up.

Dewpoint and temps look good though. 

Some good looking ensemble members on the euro, decent instability combined with 52 kts of DLS and 30 kts of LLS.

I would note that there are some potential 'fail modes' here, 12Z GFS shows a ridge building over us, not bad if you like heat and settled weather but this would kill any storm potential for us.

Unsure if this has been posted earlier but I wonder what this will do for storm potential. warmer seas=more moisture/better dewpoints??

[Boro Snow]

Well today has been a major Bust, I don't think today's cloud cover has helped at all though, it felt cool earlier with a stiff breeze 

[Metwatch]

Looking through footage now, once the system came lightning basically died away

In the nearly 10 minutes of filming only caught this half decent loud rumble after a barely visible intra cloud lightning flash. 

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Metwatch
Wrong video

[Marcus_surfer]

Cloudy, humid day, followed by light rain and drizzle for much of the evening. All in all, a very poor day for storms in south wales. Boring

[Nantes storm factory]

7 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Cloudy, humid day, followed by light rain and drizzle for much of the evening. All in all, a very poor day for storms in south wales. Boring

Same for most of us unfortunately Marcus. 

Just one ingredient missing today. Sunshine.