Autumn 2023

[BruenSryan]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

We did in 2015.

And 2022. 

[ANYWEATHER]

21 minutes ago, MP-R said:

We did in 2015.

Foehn effect over North Wales….

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, sundog said:

Warmest september on record for a number of countries in Europe,  record heat in Spain for oct, likely for France today. I see little to rejoice about. People need to be very careful what they are wishing for.......who knows what's in store much further down the road.

Ah  stop with the dramatics, parts of Scandenavia be getting snow end of the week and Iceland, oh no might be another ice-age coming

Edited October 2, 2023 by SLEETY

[jonboy]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ah  stop with the dramatics, parts of Scandenavia be getting snow end of the week and Iceland, oh no might be another ice-age coming

Agree sleepy.

What people aren't doing is looking at the cause of these extremes they just go co2 driven climate change when it's clearly not. This is water vapour in the stratosphere driven as a result of hunga tonga.

Back to normal in a couple of years.

[sundog]

13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ah  stop with the dramatics, parts of Scandenavia be getting snow end of the week and Iceland, oh no might be another ice-age coming

Perhaps  I'm being a bit ott ,but time will tell in the end what happens with the climate. 

Edited October 2, 2023 by sundog

[sundog]

1 minute ago, jonboy said:

Agree sleepy.

What people aren't doing is looking at the cause of these extremes they just go co2 driven climate change when it's clearly not. This is water vapour in the stratosphere driven as a result of hunga tonga.

Back to normal in a couple of years.

I admit that eruption could have something to do with what's going on this year. In a few yrs we will find out more I suppose. 

[MattStoke]

16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ah  stop with the dramatics, parts of Scandenavia be getting snow end of the week and Iceland, oh no might be another ice-age coming

The former are record breaking and align with the warming global climate. Snow in Scandinavia and Iceland won't see any records challenged and is against the otherwise warming global trend. Some live in complete denial.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

It's meant ot be 20c today ... It's 17c thick cloud and drizzle ... Not happy ... Let my laundry over night and it got wet in the drizzle

[jonboy]

33 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The former are record breaking and align with the warming global climate. Snow in Scandinavia and Iceland won't see any records challenged and is against the otherwise warming global trend. Some live in complete denial.

They do not align with the warming global climate they are far too extreme to fit that paradigm. The science also doesn't stack up something else is at play to cause these pockets of excess heat and rainfall. CO2 being pretty constant over the last few years cannot be the cause. So not in complete denial just following the science!!

[laddie]

9 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

It's meant ot be 20c today ... It's 17c thick cloud and drizzle ... Not happy ... Let my laundry over night and it got wet in the drizzle

Lovely here so far, nudging 21c with warm sunshine this morning's washing almost dry 

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, jonboy said:

They do not align with the warming global climate they are far too extreme to fit that paradigm. The science also doesn't stack up something else is at play to cause these pockets of excess heat and rainfall. CO2 being pretty constant over the last few years cannot be the cause. So not in complete denial just following the science!!

Warming averages leads to greater extremes. CO2 has increased, not stayed constant, and there is a time lag between (past) rising CO2 and (current) rising temperatures anyway. You clearly do not understand the science.

Edited October 2, 2023 by MattStoke

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, jonboy said:

They do not align with the warming global climate they are far too extreme to fit that paradigm. The science also doesn't stack up something else is at play to cause these pockets of excess heat and rainfall. CO2 being pretty constant over the last few years cannot be the cause. So not in complete denial just following the science!!

What science is that, jonboy? 

[jonboy]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Warming averages leads to greater extremes. CO2 has increased, not stayed constant, and there is a time lag between (past) rising CO2 and (current) rising temperatures anyway. You clearly do not understand the science.

And you clearly don't understand water vapor. Perhaps you would like to chat with NASA scientists who predicted this.

5 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

What science is that, jonboy? 

Water Vapor is by far the most potent warming element in our atmosphere. What has changed significantly in the last 18 months water vapor in the stratosphere.

[markyo]

12 minutes ago, jonboy said:

They do not align with the warming global climate they are far too extreme to fit that paradigm. The science also doesn't stack up something else is at play to cause these pockets of excess heat and rainfall. CO2 being pretty constant over the last few years cannot be the cause. So not in complete denial just following the science!!

There's tosh and then there is utter tosh....suspect your in the latter camp mate. They are very large pockets by the way

[cheese]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Ah  stop with the dramatics, parts of Scandenavia be getting snow end of the week and Iceland, oh no might be another ice-age coming

Difference being that snow in northern Scandinavia at this time of year is not exceptional or noteworthy. It's just part of the normal descent into winter in a region where winter lasts from October to April.

Edited October 2, 2023 by cheese

[markyo]

1 hour ago, jonboy said:

Back to normal in a couple of years.

Sorry mate, that's like standing on a rail track watching the express hurtling towards you and saying there must be a set of points somewhere ahead to divert the train...there are no points. We are staring at a change of climate so rapid it has never been seen before by mankind globally. The science proves it.

Edited October 2, 2023 by markyo

[MattStoke]

19 minutes ago, jonboy said:

And you clearly don't understand water vapor. Perhaps you would like to chat with NASA scientists who predicted this.

Water Vapor is by far the most potent warming element in our atmosphere. What has changed significantly in the last 18 months water vapor in the stratosphere.

Water vapor in the stratosphere would have very little impact on conditions in the troposphere (Any SSW aside).

They actually predicted it would further increase global average temperatures by additional 7% to the warming caused by anthropogenic climate change, so climate change is the overwhelming factor.

"In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects"

Tonga Eruption Blasted Unprecedented Amount of Water Into Stratosphere – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (nasa.gov)

Edited October 2, 2023 by MattStoke

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Weatherman_93 said:

Could we see a 20c day in November? Who knows with the way things have been of late.

Probably, but it's not something I'll look forward too.

[CryoraptorA303]

33 minutes ago, jonboy said:

They do not align with the warming global climate they are far too extreme to fit that paradigm. The science also doesn't stack up something else is at play to cause these pockets of excess heat and rainfall. CO2 being pretty constant over the last few years cannot be the cause. So not in complete denial just following the science!!

No they aren't - No records were broken. The snow in Sweden was widely reported to be the most on record for September - This was incorrect. It was the most since 1905. They've recorded more in the distant past.

An isolated unusual cold event vs. several new record hot Septembers across Europe and NA, both had severe heatwaves for September and have all year. But no, climate change is a hoax because of one cherry picked event against the trend, right?

I implore you to look at the global temperature anomalies over the last 20-30 years. The trend is as clear as it can get. One pocket of cold does not match the overall massive picture of record breaking warmth.

[CryoraptorA303]

17 minutes ago, cheese said:

Difference being that snow in northern Scandinavia at this time of year is not exceptional or noteworthy. It's just part of the normal descent into winter in a region where winter lasts from October to April.

Exactly. They may have received more than usual, but snow itself is not that unusual in northern Scandinavia in September. In fact, I asked someone in Finland and they said their station can expect to record a minimum as cold as they had this year in almost every September, and it only felt cold because it'd been so warm up to that point.

Let's flip it, what would these people be saying to us if 90% of the world had a massive cold anomaly, but the Sahara was a bit hotter than usual for the time of year, and we used that to suggest 90% of the planet being under a huge cold anomaly is irrelevant and "this is far too extreme for the supposed cooling trend"?

Honestly, one of these days we're going to have a gigantic heatwave or flood and these headbangers will still be going on about how [x event in the past] was way worse than this and they remember it. There's no getting through to these people.

[Methuselah]

30 minutes ago, jonboy said:

And you clearly don't understand water vapor. Perhaps you would like to chat with NASA scientists who predicted this.

Water Vapor is by far the most potent warming element in our atmosphere. What has changed significantly in the last 18 months water vapor in the stratosphere.

Now tell me something I don't already know. And, anyway, when the current acceleration began, Mt. Whatever hadn't erupted. . .

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, jonboy said:

Back to normal in a couple of years.

Said every denier since the 80s, yet it's never returned back to normal. Funny that.

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

No they aren't - No records were broken. The snow in Sweden was widely reported to be the most on record for September - This was incorrect. It was the most since 1905. They've recorded more in the distant past.

An isolated unusual cold event vs. several new record hot Septembers across Europe and NA, both had severe heatwaves for September and have all year. But no, climate change is a hoax because of one cherry picked event against the trend, right?

I implore you to look at the global temperature anomalies over the last 20-30 years. The trend is as clear as it can get. One pocket of cold does not match the overall massive picture of record breaking warmth.

Comes back to the word chaos. It's still part of climate change. As patterns seem more fixed, you will get more more ppn more cold more cloud, depending what you are stuck under, same thing has happened time and time again this year. Anomalous warmth somewhere, anomalous ppn somewhere else, anomalous cold somewhere all at the same time. That is not normal.

[jonboy]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Water vapor in the stratosphere would have very little impact on conditions in the troposphere (Any SSW aside).

They actually predicted it would further increase global average temperatures by additional 7% to the warming caused by anthropogenic climate change, so climate change is the overwhelming factor.

"In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects"

Tonga Eruption Blasted Unprecedented Amount of Water Into Stratosphere – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (nasa.gov)

A few quotes from a paper Jane J. Lee and Andrew Wang of the Jet Propulsion Lab at NASA

'The huge amount of water vapor hurled into the atmosphere, as detected by NASA’s Microwave Limb Sounder, could end up temporarily warming Earth’s surface.'

'In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer.'

' After the Tonga volcano erupted, the MLS team started seeing water vapor readings that were off the charts. “We had to carefully inspect all the measurements in the plume to make sure they were trustworthy,” said Millán.'

'This extra water vapor could influence atmospheric chemistry, boosting certain chemical reactions that could temporarily worsen depletion of the ozone layer. It could also influence surface temperatures. Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth’s surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects'

Fermin Koop writing in Geophysical Research letters estimated the water vapor ejected by Hunga Tonga could take between 5 and 10 years to leave the stratosphere.

You write off the effects of the eruption as if it has no consequence. 

All to often the go to excuse for weather events is CO2 induced climate change when clearly other factors are at play and explain better the extreme events we are seeing at present.

10 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

No they aren't - No records were broken. The snow in Sweden was widely reported to be the most on record for September - This was incorrect. It was the most since 1905. They've recorded more in the distant past.

An isolated unusual cold event vs. several new record hot Septembers across Europe and NA, both had severe heatwaves for September and have all year. But no, climate change is a hoax because of one cherry picked event against the trend, right?

I implore you to look at the global temperature anomalies over the last 20-30 years. The trend is as clear as it can get. One pocket of cold does not match the overall massive picture of record breaking warmth.

I am not talking about cold pockets I'm talking about the heat pockets and excess rain pockets that are travelling around our globe

[markyo]

1 minute ago, jonboy said:

A few quotes from a paper Jane J. Lee and Andrew Wang of the Jet Propulsion Lab at NASA

'The huge amount of water vapor hurled into the atmosphere, as detected by NASA’s Microwave Limb Sounder, could end up temporarily warming Earth’s surface.'

'In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer.'

' After the Tonga volcano erupted, the MLS team started seeing water vapor readings that were off the charts. “We had to carefully inspect all the measurements in the plume to make sure they were trustworthy,” said Millán.'

'This extra water vapor could influence atmospheric chemistry, boosting certain chemical reactions that could temporarily worsen depletion of the ozone layer. It could also influence surface temperatures. Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth’s surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects'

Fermin Koop writing in Geophysical Research letters estimated the water vapor ejected by Hunga Tonga could take between 5 and 10 years to leave the stratosphere.

You write off the effects of the eruption as if it has no consequence. 

All to often the go to excuse for weather events is CO2 induced climate change when clearly other factors are at play and explain better the extreme events we are seeing at present.

One very telling word in that article.....Could. 

Its no proof at all