Autumn 2023

[cheese]

3 minutes ago, markyo said:

I get what you’re saying totally, my point is the extremes are factually becoming more common, we are possibly seeing an Autumn never seen before. I can't see any positives.

it’s certainly very concerning when looking at the bigger picture of climate change, but I still think it’s ok for people to enjoy unseasonable warmth when it occurs. Not much we as individuals can do.

[alexisj9]

More nw to se tbh but anyway

 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

it’s certainly very concerning when looking at the bigger picture of climate change, but I still think it’s ok for people to enjoy unseasonable warmth when it occurs. Not much we as individuals can do.

Similar to how people can love the extremes but be aware of how disruptive and dangerous they can be for people.

[cheese]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Similar to how people can love the extremes but be aware of how disruptive and dangerous they can be for people.

Exactly. I love heat in summer & snow in winter but I acknowledge how disruptive they can be in a country ill-equipped to handle either. 

[markyo]

10 minutes ago, cheese said:

it’s certainly very concerning when looking at the bigger picture of climate change, but I still think it’s ok for people to enjoy unseasonable warmth when it occurs. Not much we as individuals can do.

I see what your saying but the bigger picture for me negates everything else. If we had a flip in Winter, record cold or storm activity it would be the same, we are stood on this track watching this unknown future coming towards us and this Autumn for me is just showing how much trouble we are in. The unknown future appears to be accelerating, for me the time for enjoyment has passed. The extremes will become the normal sooner than any of us could ever have envisaged.

[BruenSryan]

850hPa temperature at Camborne today was 18.8C at 12z, a record for October beating 17.4C on 16th October 2017 (Ophelia). Likely was higher achieved that day going by reanalysis but Herstmonceux did not ascend at the time the record would have been set. Nonetheless, I think it's safe to say this is a record warm October airmass. I have not seen 850s as high as 18/19C on historic October charts. 8th October 1995 did impressively bring 17C 850s into Scotland. 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

I think warmth in Autumn is just as much a part of it as cold. Just depends which way the wind blows. 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

33 minutes ago, cheese said:

Exactly. I love heat in summer & snow in winter but I acknowledge how disruptive they can be in a country ill-equipped to handle either. 

And in between in spring and autumn. 

[IcySpicy]

15 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

I think warmth in Autumn is just as much a part of it as cold. Just depends which way the wind blows. 

I mean this is Northern European weather in a nutshell. We are at the latitude where the jetstream is, so the weather really does depend on which side of the polar front you are. You guys are on the warm side currently, I am on the cold side lol. Both situations are "normal" in the broad sense but I guess due to climate change the jet gets stuck for longer periods and thus heat waves and cold snaps last longer.

[dryfie]

45 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

Is anyone able to get their crystal ball out for me please? 
 

I’m due to head to Glasgow next Saturday by train via the WCML from Rugby - what’s the flooding risk looking like throughout next week and into the weekend? Today has proven bad for many routes to and within Scotland by rail. 

If the WCML floods then it’s often in this area, so watch out for Carlisle/Lockerbie warnings.  No problems today with mainly light/drizzle stuff.  South of the main area of disruption.

[StingJet]

29 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

I think warmth in Autumn is just as much a part of it as cold. Just depends which way the wind blows. 

Was ever thus mate 

The weather we experience in the temperate UK is always governed by the MSLP and resultant wind flow
Atm we have HP to our SE and LP to our WSW driving up a warm "southerly flow"  ,  nothing really out of the ordinary with this set up , if it were Winter it would be a mild setup if it were mid summer it would be hot and humid , its Autumn, warmer than average with varying cloud.
I've been stuck under a sw'er cloud conveyor for days now delivering at times wet and windy conditions .. its Autumn therefore "nothing new under the sun"  or lack of it 

Edited October 7, 2023 by StingJet

[raz.org.rain]

Looks like tomorrow through to Tuesday is more of the same here. Monday looks to be slightly cooler with a change in wind direction, then back to warm on Tuesday before it all gives way to something cooler (seemingly 15°c every day ahead). What's more striking for me is the wind direction, it seemingly doesn't change from southerly, which seems to have been the case for a long while now.

[Josh Rubio]

7 minutes ago, dryfie said:

If the WCML floods then it’s often in this area, so watch out for Carlisle/Lockerbie warnings.  No problems today with mainly light/drizzle stuff.  South of the main area of disruption.

Yep. All too many times have I seen these areas flood unfortunately. Is there much precipitation due this week for these areas at all? 

[MattStoke]

It’s more the depth of warmth from these plumes. Although in this case the real extreme warmth is higher up and not near the surface.

Climate change also alters the jet stream which brings more of these plumes and warm spells.

Not highly unusual warmth (at the surface) for October and not every event is purely down to climate change but it does have implications on their extremity and frequency.

Edited October 7, 2023 by MattStoke

[Metwatch]

47 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

850hPa temperature at Camborne today was 18.8C at 12z, a record for October beating 17.4C on 16th October 2017 (Ophelia). Likely was higher achieved that day going by reanalysis but Herstmonceux did not ascend at the time the record would have been set. Nonetheless, I think it's safe to say this is a record warm October airmass. I have not seen 850s as high as 18/19C on historic October charts. 8th October 1995 did impressively bring 17C 850s into Scotland. 

If we had 17-19C 850hPa temperatures across England during July, somewhere could see 33-34C on the surface!

I don't think July this year managed anything above 18C. Barely scraped 30C one day.

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

If we had 17-19C 850hPa temperatures across England during July, somewhere could see 33-34C on the surface!

I don't think July this year managed anything above 18C. Barely scraped 30C one day.

Back around the solstice, we had a difference of 17°C between the 850hpa and surface level, so could in theory reach 36°C under this airmass in summer. Maybe even a bit higher if conditions are absolutely perfect.

On the day the October record was set, it was a difference of about 15°C, so could have topped 30°C in this spell under better surface conditions. Even if knocking a degree off the lapse rate given that the record was set a week earlier and we lose daylight quickly in October.

Edited October 7, 2023 by MattStoke

[BruenSryan]

4 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

If we had 17-19C 850hPa temperatures across England during July, somewhere could see 33-34C on the surface!

I don't think July this year managed anything above 18C. Barely scraped 30C one day.

I believe the highest measured from a radiosonde was 15.4C on 8th July at Herstmonceux. Looks like there could have been 16-17C based on reanalysis. Significantly short of today's value in Cornwall anyway. 

[danm]

Still 21c out there, feels like a balmy summer evening. People eating and drinking outdoors. Yet it’s 7th October. 

[Andy Bown]

The warmest October day for 5 years IMBY! Extremely notable, even moreso when considering it could be likewise for 4 more days! 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

48 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

If we had 17-19C 850hPa temperatures across England during July, somewhere could see 33-34C on the surface!

I don't think July this year managed anything above 18C. Barely scraped 30C one day.

Yeah. It was Autumn in advance.

5 minutes ago, danm said:

Still 21c out there, feels like a balmy summer evening. People eating and drinking outdoors. Yet it’s 7th October. 

Makes up for the awful July which was an unforgivable pile of sh**e.

[raz.org.rain]

49 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

If we had 17-19C 850hPa temperatures across England during July, somewhere could see 33-34C on the surface!

I don't think July this year managed anything above 18C. Barely scraped 30C one day.

Considering how easily we're reaching these 850hPa temperatures, I really do wonder what spring and summer have in store for us. The pattern we had in July and August was an anomaly I wouldn't expect to see a repeat of.

[baddie]

Felt quite springlike today, rather than summery or autumnal. The clouds lifted to reveal hazy sunshine and eventually blue skies. I expect some of this is April/May not October

[baddie]

9 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Not here, I certainly don't remember any outstanding sunny spell. The synoptics on the archives suggest a very southwesterly period with occasional ridges of high pressure, something which is never great for here - and the 12th-16th last year looks very unsettled; I have to admit I can't remember what I was doing during the weekend of the 15th/16th; the synoptics look appalling, so most likely stuck at home due to the rain!

Actually now I think about it, there was a Sunday afternoon in October one of the past two years, can't remember whether it was 2022 or 2021, when I went out and rain came in - earlier than expected - and I got thoroughly soaked. It was probably 2022 as I was on a full bus and wasn't concerned about Covid. This would narrow it down to the 16th as the 8th/9th was fine - I remember that - the 23rd was thundery and the 30th was dark due to GMT.

Loved last October due to sun and storms, felt more like June. I'm surprised that most people said it was a poor October

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, baddie said:

Loved last October due to sun and storms, felt more like June. I'm surprised that most people said it was a poor October

It was a very sunny October. That alone makes it better than this October imo. 

[baddie]

3 minutes ago, cheese said:

It was a very sunny October. That alone makes it better than this October imo. 

This October is getting a 5/10 for now, rising to an 8/10 if the next few days are more sunnier. Cloudiness is dragging the ranking down