Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

What a terrible shocking "summer is over" run from GFS. You can now just about say that GFS has counted down the unsetteled right from T384 to T0 when it first picked it up late June.. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Feel quite reassured by the ECM 12Z, not exactly brilliantly hot, but it could be worse and at least there's a bit of ridging from the west at day 10 trying to nose in.   Cause for concern for the north east though.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Have to say it but the GEM 12Z ensemble mean is looking even better than the GEFS 12Z ensemble mean with the high further north at 384 hours.    

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?ech=192&mode=0&code=21

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Although the CPC NOAA looks troughy on the 8-14 day output it looks like there is a bit of light at the end of the tunnel.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

Edited July 21, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Voice Of Reason]

I just hope this summer gets better than the dross we've been getting...

[Addicks Fan 1981]

5 minutes ago, Voice Of Reason said:

I just hope this summer gets better than the dross we've been getting...

The reasons why we have been getting the summer pattern we have are stated by @Tamaraand @MattHof which is why we've had the summer pattern we have.   The ECM 12Z ensemble mean looked quite similar to the op actually at 240 hours.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

[Man With Beard]

51 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Although the CPC NOAA looks troughy on the 8-14 day output it looks like there is a bit of light at the end of the tunnel.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

Yes that's the first real sign of improvement - the "neutral" anomaly line is approaching the south west of the UK, and the lines are flattening a bit.

The hints of a recovery in the ECM extended are still there, and actually the "better" ensembles members are only slightly short of 50% by T300. Quite a good number of successful Azores High intrusions on this one with the source being more WSWly on many members:

Definitely a "chance" of something hotter by the first weekend of August, based on that - but the overall signal is still weakish when considering the less settled runs.

[Voice Of Reason]

15 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

The reasons why we have been getting the summer pattern we have are stated by @Tamaraand @MattHof which is why we've had the summer pattern we have.   The ECM 12Z ensemble mean looked quite similar to the op actually at 240 hours.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

Any improvement is an improvement I guess.  Perhaps last years lovely weather and a nice June raised our expectations and we got a load of dross instead.

[JayAlmeida]

Gotta say those 12z runs are all awful at +240 hrs. Only question is the positioning of the low and how deep the trough is going to be. Low pressure still very influential as we head into August.

Won't be checking the models til Monday now.

Pick your poison guys

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Just now, JayAlmeida said:

Gotta say those 12z runs are all awful at +240 hrs. Only question is the positioning of the low and how deep the trough is going to be. Low pressure still very influential as we head into August.

Won't be checking the models til Monday now.

Pick your poison guys

According to NOAA we need to be following the ECM 00Z ensemble mean and taking op runs with a pinch of salt.   

[Addicks Fan 1981]

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes that's the first real sign of improvement - the "neutral" anomaly line is approaching the south west of the UK, and the lines are flattening a bit.

The hints of a recovery in the ECM extended are still there, and actually the "better" ensembles members are only slightly short of 50% by T300. Quite a good number of successful Azores High intrusions on this one with the source being more WSWly on many members:

Definitely a "chance" of something hotter by the first weekend of August, based on that - but the overall signal is still weakish when considering the less settled runs.

Nevertheless it does seem like we are seeing Green shoots of recovery in that output.   Tentative yes, but sure footed yes as well.   

[JayAlmeida]

1 minute ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

According to NOAA we need to be following the ECM 00Z ensemble mean and taking op runs with a pinch of salt.   

The NOAA charts are pretty awful for the 8-14 day period aswell. These have been LP dominated for almost a month now and have been spot on unfortunately.

[Man With Beard]

Now here's the best thing I've seen on the models for weeks  

On the ECM ensembles tonight, 36 out of the 51 members get the upper 850hpa air for London above 12C at some point between 1st and 5th August

#warmer?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Nevertheless @JayAlmeidaif we look between the lines there are some signs of recovery and its progression on yesterday.   

[JayAlmeida]

Just now, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Nevertheless @JayAlmeidaif we look between the lines there are some signs of recovery and its progression on yesterday.   

It feels like there's been positive signals for weeks now with no real improvement materialising in the reliable. 

This summer improvement train needs to get a move on as we're running out of track.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

The weather hasn't been ideal for high summer @JayAlmeidaand I support what you say on that.  

Would be very interesting to hear what @MattHhas to say on this and all of that.  

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

It feels like there's been positive signals for weeks now with no real improvement materialising in the reliable. 

This summer improvement train needs to get a move on as we're running out of track.

That's a fair comment, I confess I am one of those who've talked about signals, but in truth these signals never got into the majority on the ensembles, hence the NOAA charts. But 36 out of 51 members tonight providing warmer air at some point in the first days of August (at least for the south east, I haven't checked for the north) is by far a better sign than anything I've seen since the one day heatwave at the start of July.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Must say @Man With Beardthat the GFS 12Z op was an outlier and wasn't backed by the mean.   

[JayAlmeida]

15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

That's a fair comment, I confess I am one of those who've talked about signals, but in truth these signals never got into the majority on the ensembles, hence the NOAA charts. But 36 out of 51 members tonight providing warmer air at some point in the first days of August (at least for the south east, I haven't checked for the north) is by far a better sign than anything I've seen since the one day heatwave at the start of July.

That's better news and a very welcome addition to the rather lacklustre model output today has provided. 

[Catbrainz]

39 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Gotta say those 12z runs are all awful at +240 hrs. Only question is of the low and how deep the trough is going to be. Low pressure still very influential as we head into August.

Won't be checking the models til Monday now.

Pick your poison guys

Not a experienced chart reader but top chart seems not that bad for the south. Not heatwave conditions with a slight northerly influence but room for some drier and sunnier spells with high pressure influence. Still poor for Scotland and possibly northern England though with that green blob. 2nd and 3rd are nightmare charts though for sure. 

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

What a terrible shocking "summer is over" run from GFS. You can now just about say that GFS has counted down the unsetteled right from T384 to T0 when it first picked it up late June.. 

Gfs although slagged off to death has been Paramount in its output for the last 5 or 6 weeks for the massive change we have seen against all teleconections forecasts.  All the High furluting forecasts from  professional meteorologists on here and elsewhere beg the questions about all long range forecasts.  Yes interesting is the old MJO , PDO , IDO NAO, etc , but they cannot get long range forecasts right. , There are missing links in the Ocillations,  I'm  thinking of taking  a Masters degree in meteorological science or PHD, whatever I realise the more I learn ,the less I know.  ......

[Man With Beard]

11 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Gfs although slagged off to death has been Paramount in its output for the last 5 or 6 weeks for the massive change we have seen against all teleconections forecasts.  All the High furluting forecasts from  professional meteorologists on here and elsewhere beg the questions about all long range forecasts.  Yes interesting is the old MJO , PDO , IDO NAO, etc , but they cannot get long range forecasts right. , There are missing links in the Ocillations,  I'm  thinking of taking  a Masters degree in meteorological science or PHD, whatever I realise the more I learn ,the less I know.  ......

I would remind you that the GFS FI has thrown out a few heatwave runs in recent days, too. Which one to trust!

[Wold Topper]

24 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Gfs although slagged off to death has been Paramount in its output for the last 5 or 6 weeks for the massive change we have seen against all teleconections forecasts.  All the High furluting forecasts from  professional meteorologists on here and elsewhere beg the questions about all long range forecasts.  Yes interesting is the old MJO , PDO , IDO NAO, etc , but they cannot get long range forecasts right. , There are missing links in the Ocillations,  I'm  thinking of taking  a Masters degree in meteorological science or PHD, whatever I realise the more I learn ,the less I know.  ......

You are funny!! i just don't know whether its haha, or doh....

[ANYWEATHER]

14 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

You are funny!! i just don't know whether its haha, or doh....

Why am I funny Took three hours to make that post...

[Man With Beard]

Following on from the chat on the GFS, well look at this - the 12Z had a deep low north of Scotland at D9 - on the 18Z, the low doesn't even exist!