Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[Paul]

A fresh thread for model discussion, as we've not had one for a while.  As ever, please stick to the forum guidelines when posting in here, and keep it to discussing the model output. 

The highlights thread is still up and running - if you think a post is insightful and should go over to the highlights thread, please use the insightful reaction. 

And finally, for general summer weather chat - please head over to the summer thread:

 

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Starting with the hovmoller plots, now they are starting to show a WWB which could indicate an improvement in the latter stages of this month into August.  Its on very dodgy ground though as yesterday it was showing easterly trades indicating the unsettled weather would persist, but it's more encouraging today shall we say.    

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html

 

[Downburst]

Some proper rain tomorrow and again on Monday night into Tuesday morning moving over Ireland into Central parts of England and over Scotland during Tuesday per the ECM. Amazing totals perhaps by end of month, in general most stations I checked are at least 66% or thereabouts of full monthly total already, so no question average will be well broken for this July most places

South East England may have gusts up to 50 to 60 mph Later Saturday afternoon which will be notable.

Temp anomalies, northernScotland, nice day. But central Europe, up to 16c over mean there

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Looks also adding to my above post that the GEFS MJO will get more coherent and stronger by the link below so we know where we stand a bit more and to have a clearer signal to more improvement of weather by the end of the month, or into August.  Not saying it'll happen straight away though as it will be gradual.   

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Have to say @Downburstthat those anomolies leave an awful lot to be desired, the question there is will those low uppers come off?  

[terrier]

25 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Looks also adding to my above post that the GEFS MJO will get more coherent and stronger by the link below so we know where we stand a bit more and to have a clearer signal to more improvement of weather by the end of the month, or into August.  Not saying it'll happen straight away though as it will be gradual.   

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

 

Well let’s hope it gets a shift on. Because the GFS06Z was showing it’s wet and cool out to the 29th of July on its latest output earlier 

[Downburst]

51 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Have to say @Downburstthat those anomolies leave an awful lot to be desired, the question there is will those low uppers come off?  

They are the 2m air temps, not upper temps as in 850's. I beleive they will come off yes, as it is low pressure and a lot of rain, won't feel so bad and good chance of some thunder and lightening, of which I have had a lot already in the last two weeks, which has been nice.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Another bit of encouraging news is the NAO trending to neutral, taking a mini dip but recovering a bit towards the end.  This and the AO are very elementary at this time of the year.   

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Don't think I've seen this before in a while in the sense that the Atlantic ridge and Greenland ridge are joined together, however I'm not anticipating brilliant temperatures out of it on GFS 12Z at 144 hours ahead.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Have to say @Downburstthat those anomolies leave an awful lot to be desired, the question there is will those low uppers come off?  

Given that those charts are for this weekend, if they don’t come off then we’re wasting our time here completely! 

[summer blizzard]

Met Office multi model consensus suggests that a North Westerly is the favoured outcome right through the 26th (i assume that actually means a polar maritime airmass). 

Edited July 13, 2023 by summer blizzard

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Indeed @bluearmy the GEM 12Z is offering a similar evolution to the GFS 12z but the Greenland ridge isn't visible.  

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

[terrier]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Met Office multi model consensus suggests that a North Westerly is the favoured outcome right through the 26th (i assume that actually means a polar maritime airmass). 

That is absolutely awful for high summer.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

Met Office multi model consensus suggests that a North Westerly is the favoured outcome right through the 26th (i assume that actually means a polar maritime airmass). 

I don't think they're all that confident to be honest @summer blizzardon it, and are uncertain.  The update I heard from the met office today is the winds would back westerly.  Would say there's a lot to sort out with the models at this present moment of time.   

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Met Office multi model consensus suggests that a North Westerly is the favoured outcome right through the 26th (i assume that actually means a polar maritime airmass). 

Looking at the modelling it will swing between pm and tm. Given the high SST’s I doubt that the pm will feel overly chilly if it’s a norwester. 

[Man With Beard]

Well I was rather surprised that a couple of lines I wrote last night, based purely upon observation of this thread and the models, in a very non confrontational manner, got a pretty stinging attack last night!!!

@MattH, I offer an apology, yes I was too broad-brushed in mentioning LRFs without context - I was referring to many long range predictions that had been shared on this forum in June (not including yours), which mostly went for trough west/ridge east anomalies for July. I'm afraid I don't have much time to write so I'm sometimes overly brief, too brief this time.

However, my response to Tamara yesterday was down to a bit of twitchiness at the insistence by some that a turnaround is coming soon. Anyone who has seen my tweets over the past decade know how much I want this to be true! But I simply and honestly don't think that claim can be made at the moment with excessive confidence, and I don't think such voices should be shouted down. The NWP isn't perfect but the ECM ensembles up to D15 is doing a good job IMO.

I present this morning's ECM clusters D11-D15 - they would suggest a write off for a heatwave in July. 

I'd be both shocked and delighted if these clusters are completely wrong!

[Addicks Fan 1981]

That's what I am thinking @bluearmyand it does appear that the UKMO need to see more evidence of wind changes and all of that.    

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Safe to say @Man With Beardthat the ECM are not cottoning onto the AAM rise and the models will undoubtedly play catch up in about 3 days time.   

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the ouput before the 12z models roll in fully. 

Euro 0Z calms down in about a week moving to an Atlantic-Azores Ridge however it also has a wierd feature that looks tropical rolling around, it should likely be ignored for this reason. 

GEM 0z is the most settled option with high pressure building much further north. 

GEM12z largely agrees with the other models rather than its 0z run with a broad Azores-Atlantic Ridge and Scandinavian Low pattern.

GFS0z made much more of the low but the broad pattern is similar. 

GFS6z is probably closer to the GEM in that the pattern is a little flatter albeit not significantly different. 

GFS12z is much closer to the 0z GFS in that it is highly amplified and so we have a greater cyclonic influence. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

We will just now have to see from the NOAA prognostic bulletin of which model we ought to be watching and what confidence level there is really.    

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Safe to say @Man With Beardthat the ECM are not cottoning onto the AAM rise and the models will undoubtedly play catch up in about 3 days time.   

Let's hope so @Addicks Fan 1981

[mushymanrob]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well I was rather surprised that a couple of lines I wrote last night, based purely upon observation of this thread and the models, in a very non confrontational manner, got a pretty stinging attack last night!!!

@MattH, I offer an apology, yes I was too broad-brushed in mentioning LRFs without context - I was referring to many long range predictions that had been shared on this forum in June (not including yours), which mostly went for trough west/ridge east anomalies for July. I'm afraid I don't have much time to write so I'm sometimes overly brief, too brief this time.

However, my response to Tamara yesterday was down to a bit of twitchiness at the insistence by some that a turnaround is coming soon. Anyone who has seen my tweets over the past decade know how much I want this to be true! But I simply and honestly don't think that claim can be made at the moment with excessive confidence, and I don't think such voices should be shouted down. The NWP isn't perfect but the ECM ensembles up to D15 is doing a good job IMO.

I present this morning's ECM clusters D11-D15 - they would suggest a write off for a heatwave in July. 

I'd be both shocked and delighted if these clusters are completely wrong!

for what its worth, imho the response was a little ott, i didnt get anything out of your post that was anything but an honest opinion and one based on reality... LRFs are hard to get right.. BUT .. i do admire and respect those who are trying to produce them.

Meanwhile - theres no sign of any change towards anything warm/hot on the EPS out towards the end of the Month... Im not saying anyone is wrong, im just commenting that SO FAR theres no sign of a change, a change that may well come of this source (that i find is usually pretty accurate)

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at the modelling it will swing between pm and tm. Given the high SST’s I doubt that the pm will feel overly chilly if it’s a norwester. 

Is that the high SST’s that delivered maxes last week of 14-17C in many parts….

[Addicks Fan 1981]

You know what @mushymanrobI think we are set for the most westerly July ever in living memory.  Even that chart has westerlies in it.    

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Looks positive here @Aldercbut the question is will it be near the mark or not? It indicates to me the azores high but with winds from the NW, so an interesting combination of whatever it brings.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=31&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0