Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[Addicks Fan 1981]

According to this from Mike ventrice our next CCKW should be developing very soon so we have a more distinctive change.   

Kelvin Wave Forecast - Michael J. Ventrice, Ph.D.

MIKEVENTRICE.WEEBLY.COM

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LOOP THIS IMAGE Current snapshot of Atlantic Kelvin filtered 200 hPa Velocity Potential anomalies (shading + contours) and  200 hPa wind anomalies (vectors) Kelvin Filtered 200 hPa VP anomalies...

 

[Guest]

I’m still surprised people bought into the more optimistic outcomes for next week and beyond, yes some Ops runs have hinted at better conditions but the mean 850s have really consistently poor. It’s now looking possible, even likely the second half of July will be worse than the first half, looking at GFS, the Ops wasn’t actually that bad into comparison to many of the other ensembles which were beyond dreadful. 

[JayAlmeida]

ECM 12z looking like a northern blocking groundhog day but there's no real consensus on the progression/retrogression in the 7-10 day period between the big 3 models and as such all of 12z runs arrive at different locations @+240hrs.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Just now, JayAlmeida said:

ECM 12z looking like a northern blocking groundhog day but there's no real consensus on the progression/retrogression in the 7-10 day period between the big 3 models and as such all of 12z runs arrive at different locations @+240hrs.

Think ECM is on its own then and the mean may not back the op either.    

[Guest]

Just now, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Think ECM is on its own then and the mean may not back the op either.    

The ECM ops Run is actually like many of the GFS ensemble members at the basement end…

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Agree on that @Aldercand it's like a tussle is happening with the models as things stand.    

[JayAlmeida]

10 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Agree on that @Aldercand it's like a tussle is happening with the models as things stand.    

Yeah I think that tug of war will continue over the next few days.

I'll be skipping the models until Monday when then the final week of July will be in the reliable.

One thing is certain any tangible improvements seem to keep being pushed back again and again. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by JayAlmeida

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Think @JayAlmeidawhen we get the next CCKW that will be the real game changer which is due very soon.    

[mushymanrob]

57 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Just seen a snap shot of the NOAA anomolies at 8-14 days time, they still have the trough over us, but with an average confidence rating, so in fairness they are not certain if it'll happen or not.   

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

3/5 confidence for days 8-14 is higher than most for that timeframe and is consistent. NO model suite is ever certain at that range

[Addicks Fan 1981]

The ECM 12Z ensemble mean isn't backing the op and lowers heights towards Greenland, so the op went on a tangent basically.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

 

[danm]

7 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

The ECM 12Z ensemble mean isn't backing the op and lowers heights towards Greenland, so the op went on a tangent basically.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

 

Lowering heights towards Greenland is good, but the Op followed the mean very closely for SLP across the UK itself. Higher pressure during the bulk of this working week before a strong signal for a drop in pressure again by next weekend. Not great to be honest. 
 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

It's not wonderful @danmbut to be honest the op was alarmist tonight.   Have to wait and see what the next batch of runs bring.   

[damianslaw]

No real changes on the way for the foreseeable taking us into the latter stages of July. A very poor weekend ahead. The new week remains cool and very showery with a predominantly westerly or north westerly flow, no ridge development into the UK. Fronts and troughs interspersed with showery or brief drier intervals order of the day. SW parts might see something drier from time to time as the ridge builds closer but its poorly positioned to bring any warmth. Indeed more la nina esque than el nino.

As far as next weekend it looks like staying unsettled, but probably not on the same scale as this weekend. Many who have UK holiday plans - as soon as schools break up will be keeping a close eye on the forecasts in the coming days. Things can change, but it is becoming increasingly clear they will start on an average if not rather poor note if you are wanting sustained dry sunny warm weather. No washout, but could be alot better from this perspective.

Interested to know sunshine levels so far this month, it has been exceptionally dull here, just a few hours here and there. Very disappointing, you don't need very warm uppers at this time of year for it to feel warm, just a good few hours of sun hottest part of the day, sadly we've had barely any such days here like that so far this July.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

No real changes on the way for the foreseeable taking us into the latter stages of July. A very poor weekend ahead. The new week remains cool and very showery with a predominantly westerly or north westerly flow, no ridge development into the UK. Fronts and troughs interspersed with showery or brief drier intervals order of the day. SW parts might see something drier from time to time as the ridge builds closer but its poorly positioned to bring any warmth. Indeed more la nina esque than el nino.

As far as next weekend it looks like staying unsettled, but probably not on the same scale as this weekend. Many who have UK holiday plans - as soon as schools break up will be keeping a close eye on the forecasts in the coming days. Things can change, but it is becoming increasingly clear they will start on an average if not rather poor note if you are wanting sustained dry sunny warm weather. No washout, but could be alot better from this perspective.

Interested to know sunshine levels so far this month, it has been exceptionally dull here, just a few hours here and there. Very disappointing, you don't need very warm uppers at this time of year for it to feel warm, just a good few hours of sun hottest part of the day, sadly we've had barely any such days here like that so far this July.

@MattHinitially said that this summer would be volatile and so far he is pretty much spot on so far.   Asides that this caught my eye from the MJO GEFS chart tonight and looks the exact same as @Tamaraposted the other day actually.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml

 

[Man With Beard]

59 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’m still surprised people bought into the more optimistic outcomes for next week and beyond, yes some Ops runs have hinted at better conditions but the mean 850s have really consistently poor. It’s now looking possible, even likely the second half of July will be worse than the first half, looking at GFS, the Ops wasn’t actually that bad into comparison to many of the other ensembles which were beyond dreadful. 

I was definitely one of those hoping for an improvement by 20th - a few days ago the ensembles were dragging us back to average and I guess I was hoping the trend would topple us up to the good side of average - but looks like it might topple back below average again. However, still a few days away and we see pendulums sometimes swing one way then another, don't we!

Extended ECM - the very fragile hint on the 00Z at lows retreating west by the end of July have almost disappeared tonight - in fact a fairly different ensembles set, albeit still on the less settled side. The consolation remains that the ECM isn't clear in the direction D11 to D15 will go -  but the caveat is that most routes suggested at present do not look particularly summery.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

We have to look at the other variables as well @Man With Beardbecause the signals drive the NWP output.  I noticed on the mike ventrice site earlier that the trade winds wouldn't necessarily be easterly anymore at the end of the run over the dateline, but it'll be a bumpy road to get something more desirable.   We need a more active MJO for sure.      

[damianslaw]

22 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

@MattHinitially said that this summer would be volatile and so far he is pretty much spot on so far.   Asides that this caught my eye from the MJO GEFS chart tonight and looks the exact same as @Tamaraposted the other day actually.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml

 

Some anomaly charts suggested a summer with the atlantic trough gaining more and more influence to our SW with heights to the NE pushed further away. I mentioned in late June my thoughts forecast of the rest of the summer would perhaps be one where the trough becomes more dominant but plumes still likely and a settled warm spell third week of July. This latter thought alas is a bust.. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by damianslaw

[Derecho]

I do get the impression the chances of a northerly flow for week after next is increasing, though a fair bit of uncertainty still.

The GFS 12z OP was better then almost every ensemble member, some poor output for sure.

[TSNWK]

In my view you can have as many global teleconnections theories  as you like  (they tend to come in fads  until proven wrong )  but the simple fact of the  matter is the chaos and  butterfly effect that increasingly extrapolates its own merry dance the further out we look..  an elephant fart in Thailand could introduce the butterfly effect that along with random chaos of the atmospheres scuppers any teleconnections theory beyond around 3 weeks in my humble opinion. Personally I do find the 500mb charts broadly there for two weeks out with detail following within that framework far more often than not.

Edited July 14, 2023 by TSNWK

[mushymanrob]

These charts dont make good viewing

6 - 10


8 - 14 increases troughing


For any warmth/heat by early August these charts would need to be 100% wrong, which in ten years ive never seen. Doesnt mean it cant happen... but...

[Scorcher]

Seriously what an incredibly depressing state of affairs at what should be the height of summer- not sure I can remember a more stagnant, persistent pattern than this. 

All on the back of an all-time classic June. Must be one of the great summer collapses in history. I'm not subjecting myself to any more of this torture now- I'll see you all in a few weeks.

Edited July 14, 2023 by Scorcher

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Want you to stay posting@Scorcheras your input is great.  The 18Z GFS pretty much carries on the changeable theme as we are now regretfully used to.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

 

[Guest]

Possibly one of the most depressing ensemble mid summer outputs from the last generation from the GFS 18Z 

Even CHATGPT agrees

[terrier]

Well yet another depressing run from the GFS this morning. Further showers or longer spells of rain right out to T384. Think that’s July over & done with now for any settled or warm weather. Seems we are certainly paying for that lovely warm June. Anyone staying in holiday in the U.K. in the next fortnight pack your waterproofs.

[sheikhy]

Well im afraid my post/fear from 4 weeks ago has become reality and our summer has peaked early this year!!!not really seen any meaningful heat or really dry weather since end of 3rd week june here!!also charts look pretty depressing this morning!!!going to great yarmouth on monday for most of the week and yeh it dont look like no washout but there aint no heatwave either just your standard sunshine showers throughout the week!!but lets be honest when your on the beach you want between 25 and 30 degrees with sun dont you?!!