Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[Guest]

Even worse this morning all models, ensembles 100% in agreement on a cool/cold flow going into August. July will undoubtedly go down as the worst since 2012. Many places won’t have exceeded 25C, most other places only once. Dreadful. 

[WinterOf47]

20 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well yet another depressing run from the GFS this morning. Further showers or longer spells of rain right out to T384. Think that’s July over & done with now for any settled or warm weather. Seems we are certainly paying for that lovely warm June. Anyone staying in holiday in the U.K. in the next fortnight pack your waterproofs.

Yep, the latest OP of the GFS is a true misery maker. A bit of temporary warmth and dry for the south early next week (when we are mostly back at work), then a descent into endless windy showery weather. Feel very lucky to have had my UK holiday in the last week in June, which wasn’t perfect, but much better than what is coming. The ensemble accumulated rainfall and temp anomalies for the next 2 weeks also show  most off the UK, showery and cool. The South east will be bearable as it will be spared the worst of the rain and cool, but definitely not beach weather!

 

 

[northwestsnow]

 

I'm with @sheikhysheikhy,the alarm bells began to ring the  last week in June when we began to see evidence of Northern Blocking and the green blob at our latitude emerging.

Little in the 00z data to suggest a noticeable improvement in the next 10 days - 

Brill June

Dreadful July

August ?

 

[johnholmes]

my take on the 500 mb anomaly charts

Friday 14th  and no major changes showing, indeed, probably as a result of the trough/ridge development a few days ago off the western seaboard of n America some indication of height rises/ridging around 30W/s Greenland into the trough now e of the uk, little change in contour heights over the uk, all show origin from polar areas.

So no prob of any major warming or much change in the current weather patterns in the next 14 days. That said the 8-14 is a bit different from its last output in the far west. Watch for the next couple of NOAA outputs to see what shows up.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

I'm with @sheikhysheikhy,the alarm bells began to ring the  last week in June when we began to see evidence of Northern Blocking and the green blob at our latitude emerging.

Little in the 00z data to suggest a noticeable improvement in the next 10 days - 

Brill June

Dreadful July

August ?

 

I said weeks ago once you get this pattern established it will last for weeks! Unfortunately I was ridiculed for my genuine thoughts.  I think we wil lbe ploughing into August the same way that July has been.....

Edited July 15, 2023 by ANYWEATHER

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I said weeks ago once you get this pattern established it will last for weeks! Unfortunately I was ridiculed for my genuine thoughts.  I think we wil lbe ploughing into August the same way that July has been.....

Im not looking at August that's too far away for me personally ,we'll see...

[Neil Harris]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Well im afraid my post/fear from 4 weeks ago has become reality and our summer has peaked early this year!!!not really seen any meaningful heat or really dry weather since end of 3rd week june here!!also charts look pretty depressing this morning!!!going to great yarmouth on monday for most of the week and yeh it dont look like no washout but there aint no heatwave either just your standard sunshine showers throughout the week!!but lets be honest when your on the beach you want between 25 and 30 degrees with sun dont you?!!

Did you not get that red hot day last Friday in Leicester?

[danm]

Break time from the models me thinks!

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, danm said:

Break time from the models me thinks!

It must be bad….

[danm]

6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It must be bad….

There were some signs things could improve this week, and they are from the absolute pits of this weekend but not to anything resembling good summer weather. The outlook from next weekend onwards is also mixed. 

[MattStoke]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Even worse this morning all models, ensembles 100% in agreement on a cool/cold flow going into August. July will undoubtedly go down as the worst since 2012. Many places won’t have exceeded 25C, most other places only once. Dreadful. 

And yet even a seemingly poor month is (so far) running just above average for the CET (Don’t know about U.K. wide). A reflection on our changing climate.

[Man With Beard]

Certainly no cherries thrown out by the ECM in the D10 period. Very few runs give the scope for a significant turnaround. The base of any trough is often towards the UK - although I will be interested to see if this trough trends back west in the D6-D9 period, though, as this has happened a couple of times in July already (not enough to give us extended heat, of course).

A sniff that the mid-Atlantic High might be moving in by D15, and the Scandi trough easing, but not a particularly strong sign, with some members persisting with the current set-up.

Yes! I'm very aware that we're now deep into FI, and the latter stages of recent ECM ensemble runs have given some hope that didn't materialise. I'm just posting these as a marker to return to in a few days, to see if any of the potential developments came to anything. 

[bluearmy]

One could look at the current malaise for nw europe and accept that we are simply in the wrong place in a stagnant broad pattern. Just as we were in the right place in June and much of may. This seems to be the way of weather over the past year or so with the usual west to east movement of patterns being much slower and sometimes stagnant for periods. the jet much more predisposed to buckling. On the basis of the above it is only a matter of time before we end up in the right place again - but how long is unknown 

[Scorcher]

29 minutes ago, danm said:

Break time from the models me thinks!

I don't understand what pleasure anyone takes watching the models in periods like this- apart from those people who enjoy wishing summer away (I know a few do).

It's monotonous, depressing and there is absolutely nothing of interest- the worst possible setup. It's pointless even looking.

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

On the basis of the above it is only a matter of time before we end up in the right place again - but how long is unknown 

If it's September by that point it won't matter, as it simply isn't the same- doesn't feel like summer even if it's hot.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Scorcher

[In Absence of True Seasons]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

And yet even a seemingly poor month is (so far) running just above average for the CET (Don’t know about U.K. wide). A reflection on our changing climate.

It's mostly the cloud cover and chilly breeze that has marred the warmth perception this month. Average temps for July are fine (not great but fine) if the sun is out. But it hasn't been out, for a significant portion of the month. 

[Methuselah]

28 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

And yet even a seemingly poor month is (so far) running just above average for the CET (Don’t know about U.K. wide). A reflection on our changing climate.

Right enough. Back in the 1960s, a weather pattern like today's would have seen maxes of only 17 or 18C; today, it was already up to 19-20c at 10 a.m.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Methuselah

[mb018538]

I’m also really despondent now. Have been keeping my hopes up throughout July that we weren’t in a La Niña year and this sort of set up wouldn’t stick for weeks and weeks on end….but it has, and July isn’t too far from being finished in terms of summery weather.
 

Come on August, we can’t have the best June on record followed by two absolute howlers.  

[Tamara]

11 hours ago, TSNWK said:

In my view you can have as many global teleconnections theories  as you like  (they tend to come in fads  until proven wrong )  but the simple fact of the  matter is the chaos and  butterfly effect that increasingly extrapolates its own merry dance the further out we look..  an elephant fart in Thailand could introduce the butterfly effect that along with random chaos of the atmospheres scuppers any teleconnections theory beyond around 3 weeks in my humble opinion. Personally I do find the 500mb charts broadly there for two weeks out with detail following within that framework far more often than not.

My last reiteration on this as I accept that no amount of rationale is going to be worthwhile when disillusion with the weather in the UK overrides any reasoning behind it.

There is no "theory". And there is certainly no "fad". That is, frankly, unwarranted trivialisation.  These atmospheric drivers in the tropics and extra tropics are steeped in empirical science of the atmosphere & the physics of the turning force of the jet stream through angular momentum processes. All put together into a diagnostic framework.

There is nothing wrong with the science,. What can go wrong is natural human error in decoding the complexities from time to time - but that doesn't make the teleconnection tools related to the science themselves wrong or of little use.  As much as it doesn't make the 500mb charts wrong at any given time, irrespective of the fact that they may change in their outlook subsequently according to the diagnostic that drives then and there can equally be human error with these. The point is that they attempt to model the diagnostic processes that are in never ending flux - and such flux constantly evolves the outlook. The 500mb charts are the best overview of numerical overview interpretation. There is no disputing that. However, as stated, these evolve & change as much as NWP evolves & changes its outlook according to its interpretation of the diagnostics that drive them.

The reasoning for the changes this July have been stated umpteen times. it is not the teleconnections that are to blame for departure from expectations (in the UK). And neither is the present situation to do with any butterfly or random effects. It is a natural cyclical ebb in the state of the atmosphere that has produced a pronounced disconnect much greater than was anticipated.  Nothing more, nothing less.

Finally, and with that in mind, ownership has to be taken for the fact that the focus of the downturn happens to be in the vicinity of the focus of a UK weather forum. Better to accept the reality of that disappointment, and own the disappointment - than blame the science, or the tools used based on the science.

Whatever the weather, hope as many of you can enjoy the remainder of the summer.

 

[alexisj9]

12 hours ago, TSNWK said:

In my view you can have as many global teleconnections theories  as you like  (they tend to come in fads  until proven wrong )  but the simple fact of the  matter is the chaos and  butterfly effect that increasingly extrapolates its own merry dance the further out we look..  an elephant fart in Thailand could introduce the butterfly effect that along with random chaos of the atmospheres scuppers any teleconnections theory beyond around 3 weeks in my humble opinion. Personally I do find the 500mb charts broadly there for two weeks out with detail following within that framework far more often than not.

Random chaos is all you needed to say here tbh. There has been a lot of that weatherwise this year, and it is over riding signals. Places are then being abnormally cool, the states last month for instance, or abnormally hot. It's our turn for the cool pattern which probably just worked it's way around from the eastern states.

[alexisj9]

18 minutes ago, Tamara said:

My last reiteration on this as I accept that no amount of rationale is going to be worthwhile when disillusion with the weather in the UK overrides any reasoning behind it.

There is no "theory". And there is certainly no "fad". That is, frankly, unwarranted trivialisation.  These atmospheric drivers in the tropics and extra tropics are steeped in empirical science of the atmosphere & the physics of the turning force of the jet stream through angular momentum processes. All put together into a diagnostic framework.

There is nothing wrong with the science,. What can go wrong is natural human error in decoding the complexities from time to time - but that doesn't make the teleconnection tools related to the science themselves wrong or of little use.  As much as it doesn't make the 500mb charts wrong at any given time, irrespective of the fact that they may change in their outlook subsequently according to the diagnostic that drives then and there can equally be human error with these. The point is that they attempt to model the diagnostic processes that are in never ending flux - and such flux constantly evolves the outlook. The 500mb charts are the best overview of numerical overview interpretation. There is no disputing that. However, as stated, these evolve & change as much as NWP evolves & changes its outlook according to its interpretation of the diagnostics that drive them.

The reasoning for the changes this July have been stated umpteen times. it is not the teleconnections that are to blame for departure from expectations (in the UK). And neither is the present situation to do with any butterfly or random effects. It is a natural cyclical ebb in the state of the atmosphere that has produced a pronounced disconnect much greater than was anticipated.  Nothing more, nothing less.

Finally, and with that in mind, ownership has to be taken for the fact that the focus of the downturn happens to be in the vicinity of the focus of a UK weather forum. Better to accept the reality of that disappointment, and own the disappointment - than blame the science, or the tools used based on the science.

Whatever the weather, hope as many of you can enjoy the remainder of the summer.

 

A bit breezy but other than that rather nice and warm here, won't be the same all over though. 

[Uncle_Barty]

22 minutes ago, Tamara said:

My last reiteration on this as I accept that no amount of rationale is going to be worthwhile when disillusion with the weather in the UK overrides any reasoning behind it.

There is no "theory". And there is certainly no "fad". That is, frankly, unwarranted trivialisation.  These atmospheric drivers in the tropics and extra tropics are steeped in empirical science of the atmosphere & the physics of the turning force of the jet stream through angular momentum processes. All put together into a diagnostic framework.

There is nothing wrong with the science,. What can go wrong is natural human error in decoding the complexities from time to time - but that doesn't make the teleconnection tools related to the science themselves wrong or of little use.  As much as it doesn't make the 500mb charts wrong at any given time, irrespective of the fact that they may change in their outlook subsequently according to the diagnostic that drives then and there can equally be human error with these. The point is that they attempt to model the diagnostic processes that are in never ending flux - and such flux constantly evolves the outlook. The 500mb charts are the best overview of numerical overview interpretation. There is no disputing that. However, as stated, these evolve & change as much as NWP evolves & changes its outlook according to its interpretation of the diagnostics that drive them.

The reasoning for the changes this July have been stated umpteen times. it is not the teleconnections that are to blame for departure from expectations (in the UK). And neither is the present situation to do with any butterfly or random effects. It is a natural cyclical ebb in the state of the atmosphere that has produced a pronounced disconnect much greater than was anticipated.  Nothing more, nothing less.

Finally, and with that in mind, ownership has to be taken for the fact that the focus of the downturn happens to be in the vicinity of the focus of a UK weather forum. Better to accept the reality of that disappointment, and own the disappointment - than blame the science, or the tools used based on the science.

Whatever the weather, hope as many of you can enjoy the remainder of the summer.

 

I guess the lesson to work out here is *why* there is this disconnect between the oceanic base state and the atmosphere, whether there were any signs of this beforehand, and if/how this can be foreseen in future.

In any case, I've always regarded the various teleconnecions (as excellently set out by Tamara and others... when I get the chance, I still need to get a proper handle on them.. been looking on Youtube for some "dummies" guide on how to read the various charts,) as a guide as to what may be down the line, and certainly not as a firm prediction.

I still remember 2011, when after a poor June, general hope from the various indicators was for a much better July based on seasonal wavelength changes... then the goalposts were moved and we ended up with a crap July anyway.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

48 minutes ago, Tamara said:

My last reiteration on this as I accept that no amount of rationale is going to be worthwhile when disillusion with the weather in the UK overrides any reasoning behind it.

There is no "theory". And there is certainly no "fad". That is, frankly, unwarranted trivialisation.  These atmospheric drivers in the tropics and extra tropics are steeped in empirical science of the atmosphere & the physics of the turning force of the jet stream through angular momentum processes. All put together into a diagnostic framework.

There is nothing wrong with the science,. What can go wrong is natural human error in decoding the complexities from time to time - but that doesn't make the teleconnection tools related to the science themselves wrong or of little use.  As much as it doesn't make the 500mb charts wrong at any given time, irrespective of the fact that they may change in their outlook subsequently according to the diagnostic that drives then and there can equally be human error with these. The point is that they attempt to model the diagnostic processes that are in never ending flux - and such flux constantly evolves the outlook. The 500mb charts are the best overview of numerical overview interpretation. There is no disputing that. However, as stated, these evolve & change as much as NWP evolves & changes its outlook according to its interpretation of the diagnostics that drive them.

The reasoning for the changes this July have been stated umpteen times. it is not the teleconnections that are to blame for departure from expectations (in the UK). And neither is the present situation to do with any butterfly or random effects. It is a natural cyclical ebb in the state of the atmosphere that has produced a pronounced disconnect much greater than was anticipated.  Nothing more, nothing less.

Finally, and with that in mind, ownership has to be taken for the fact that the focus of the downturn happens to be in the vicinity of the focus of a UK weather forum. Better to accept the reality of that disappointment, and own the disappointment - than blame the science, or the tools used based on the science.

Whatever the weather, hope as many of you can enjoy the remainder of the summer.

 

Have noticed @Tamarathat our MJO is set to get a little bit more active, another reason why the UK is in the rut of weather its in at the moment.  

Your advice i think to the rest of the forum is i think mandatory and key on developments that go on but take a while to process through.   

Did also notice that the next CCKW should be developing very soon, the question is when and where?  

Link to MJO below.   

Real-Time multivariate MJO Phase Space Diagrams - Michael J. Ventrice, Ph.D.

MIKEVENTRICE.WEEBLY.COM

---

FOR Atlantic with CCKWs MJO filtered VP200 anomalies for the current state, for the week 1 forecast, and for the week 2 forecast. Cold colors are representative of a more favorable state over the...

 

[dixonoid]

One thing that has stuck in my mind about this summer, was the news of the warm Atlantic. Only one thing could come of this, with all that moisture being released into the atmosphere, my expectations of abnormal summer where quashed and normal British summer has resumed :-@

[johnholmes]

This from Tamara

 However, as stated, these evolve & change as much as NWP evolves & changes its outlook according to its interpretation of the diagnostics that drive them.

 

No they do not change as frequently Tamara. That is why they are so useful in the 6-14 day time scale. They give a pretty decent 6-10 days (my research showed around 70% accuracy AT 500 mb for 6-10 days and, about 65 %  on the 8-14), prediction for the 500 mb overall pattern. Using them then for the surface is fraught with difficulty and requires a lot of experience but they do provide a very useful aid in trying to do that. Granted there is so much computer output from all manner of models nowadays but I still find them very useful in giving an overall background for what is likely to happen at 500 mb, winter or summer.

 

Not knocking your outlooks at all but just stating that your comment is, in my view, not correct.

 

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Signs are starting to be encouraging that the Greenland heights are starting to drop according to the ECM 00Z ensemble mean below.  That's what we want for a real shift in the weather we currently have.  

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0