Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[*Stormforce~beka*]

18 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

End of the gfs run showing warmth only got to wait another 15 days

It'll be put back ...

[Addicks Fan 1981]

The GEFS 18Z mean will decide if its likely to happen or not as well as the control run.  Think that it'll be a big chore to get out of this rut we are in at the moment weather wise.  

The prevailing winds as I mentioned before are obviously not our best friend currently and I can't help but think that lack of hurricane activity from the America area is meaning that we have less in the way of heat and all of that.   

Reckon our west to east QBO is equally as unhelpful with our weather at the moment too.  Its with transitions like this that to my mind cause the summer to be unstable and cause the AO to be negative.   

The green shoots will happen, but they will take time.    

[Don]

34 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

It'll be put back ...

It's not winter you know!! 

[KTtom]

UKMO 168 showing another low moving in off the Atlantic to give another unsettled end to nextweekend after a slightly better, but cool week ahead. Law of averages says we will get at least 1 more dry warm week out of summer but at present still nothing to indicate anything hot incomming for the remainder of July that I can see,  which IMO looking at southern europe is a blessing.

The met have handled this outlook quite well for a change, they have been promoting winds from the north west for some time and thats what were getting next week keeping the heat to the south.

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by KTtom

[Guest]

GFS ensembles remain below average throughout for my part of the world at least. Drier than of late though, indicative of that northwesterly flow Ithe Met Office are alluding to I'd suggest.

Edited July 16, 2023 by Guest

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

GFS ensembles remain below average throughout for my part of the world at least:

The lack of scatter in the outer reaches of the ensembles is quite stark. Not sure I can ever remember such a tightly clustered set. GEM is pretty similar too and away from the most extreme south east which may tap into a little warmth for a day or two this weeks places further west and north could struggle to reach 20C for the rest of the month. 

[Guest]

Goodness me, ECM pumping another low and associated deluge over the UK next weekend, July could start heading towards the exceptionally wet category before long…..

[MattStoke]

21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Goodness me, ECM pumping another low and associated deluge over the UK next weekend, July could start heading towards the exceptionally wet category before long…..

Don’t worry. We’ll get one dry day somewhere and people will start crying that we need rain.

[mb018538]

Another day comes along, and another set of absolutely awful 00z runs comes with it. If anything they are getting worse. Low after low after low piling in. Ensembles trending down to end the month.

[Guest]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Another day comes along, and another set of absolutely awful 00z runs comes with it. If anything they are getting worse. Low after low after low piling in. Ensembles trending down to end the month.

And with such rock solid agreement it’s now starting to look like the pattern will continue into august. 

[KTtom]

Just now, Alderc said:

And with such rock solid agreement it’s now starting to look like the pattern will continue into august. 

Yes, if anything, the heat that some were adamant we would be tapping into from the south by the end of the month is getting pushed further away south as time goes by. 

[clark3r]

Really time for a break and come back in a few days hopefully there will be some better signs by then. This is like how bad it gets in winter searching for cold and snow. On gfs temp does not get above 24 after Tuesday. 

[Jon Somerset]

I can cope as long as the temperatures are high teens or 20s. This is still Bette than about ten years ago when I was in double layers at 14C in August.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Really time for a break and come back in a few days hopefully there will be some better signs by then. This is like how bad it gets in winter searching for cold and snow. On gfs temp does not get above 24 after Tuesday. 

And let’s be clear, that 24C is very restricted geographically. Most place aren’t above 20C 

[Bats32]

I'm done. Max of 15-16C next week IMBY, wet Tuesday and next weekend. No respite in sight 

[SunSean]

Yeah, I had almost a week off from this model thread in the hopes there would be a change by now but unfortunately it is identical, if not worse, than the last time I checked!

[northwestsnow]

Well any  LRF's that  suggested a warm settled  July are a train wreck.

Worse the further North you go ...

Feel sorry for anyone who booked a stay cation this July ...

This is akin to a Winter Euro High for me ,absolutely wretched pattern to break out of..

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by northwestsnow

[Nick2373]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well any  LRF's that  suggested a warm settled  July are a train wreck.

Worse the further North you go ...

Feel sorry for anyone who booked a stay cation this July ...

This is akin to a Winter Euro High for me ,absolutely wretched pattern to break out of..

 

Goes to show really that any long forecast be it computer of person cant always get it right, A few people said that July would be a bust few weeks back and some heralded a return to warmer conditions. anything past seven days needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. 

[saintkip]

Looks like a perfect week coming up for me, temps between 20-22 all week with a nice breeze and sunny spells, I’m not sure what everyone’s moaning about.

[Uncle_Barty]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

We don't all live in Basingstoke.

But you make a valid point, people in the south might wonder what the fuss is about ..

In the upcoming scenario it can be 22 and sunny in the south and 16 with grey skies and drizzle in Manchester..

This.

Here in Bournemouth, it's probably been no worse than "changeable" with just below average temps, albeit with the last two days being pretty much a writeoff for any meaningful outdoor summer activities.

Looking at the models, that looks likely to continue for the foreseeable.

It's clearly been far worse up north, as is often the case in these setups.

[bluearmy]

I’ve been watching next weekend count down on the eps from day 15

sadly they’ve done a v good job - and they’ve been consistent. Picked up the upper trough digging west of Iberia around day 11 

   
 

we have a straw in the extended as the Atlantic looks flatter but the clusters reveal that there isn’t any decent end of month summer spell hidden within the model suite beyond around 15%

[WinterOf47]

13 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

This.

Here in Bournemouth, it's probably been no worse than "changeable" with just below average temps, albeit with the last two days being pretty much a writeoff for any meaningful outdoor summer activities.

Looking at the models, that looks likely to continue for the foreseeable.

It's clearly been far worse up north, as is often the case in these setups.

Agreed. This time last year we were starring down the throat of 2 days above 35. Yuck. The models this week are not too bad now for the south, with high lurking in some of the charts. 20-24 is ideal. Yesterday I was in Hove, clear blue skies and huge waves. Everyone was in summer wear as temp was about 21. Even with the wind, it was lovely.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Seen that the MJO is set to get more active by what we see below and guys we need to look at sites that provide the signals if we can that is.    

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html

[Addicks Fan 1981]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’ve been watching next weekend count down on the eps from day 15

sadly they’ve done a v good job - and they’ve been consistent. Picked up the upper trough digging west of Iberia around day 11 

   
 

we have a straw in the extended as the Atlantic looks flatter but the clusters reveal that there isn’t any decent end of month summer spell hidden within the model suite beyond around 15%

I've seen the uppers for 10 days time on the same site and have to say without sugarcoating that the uppers are disappointing.  On the other hand the NWP is probably 2 days behind the AAM rise which is why we have the output we have.   

[danm]

Reasonable in the south this week with temperatures around 22/23c, mainly dry with sunny spells. Next weekend looking like another trough pushing south so any heat looks a fairly long way off.