Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Think @johnholmesit wouldn't take all that much for the jet stream to shift further north again and a number of tweaks needed.  We are simply in a lull, even June 1997 and July 2009 had lulls in the weather.   

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

I don't understand what pleasure anyone takes watching the models in periods like this- apart from those people who enjoy wishing summer away (I know a few do).

It's monotonous, depressing and there is absolutely nothing of interest- the worst possible setup. It's pointless even looking.

If it's September by that point it won't matter, as it simply isn't the same- doesn't feel like summer even if it's hot.

Well I’m not a fan of hot weather, but yesterday was ridiculous - it was like October, and that I do not like. 

Dry and pleasant would be great, but I’m not sure even that’s on the table at the minute. At least the water companies will be happy that the reservoirs are being topped up.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Indeed @Paul_1978there are winners and losers with what we are having currently.  According to the GEFS 00Z mean we are set for a north and south divide with our weather at 384 hours ahead.  So no nationwide good weather but progress on what we are having as things stand.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

[Bats32]

It's been like Autumn up here since the last week of June, warm in the sun, but there's little of that. My head in already in an Autumn "space" because if it, even had the heating on a week ago. I see little in the models for any hope of reprieve. for something nicer in August.

[Man With Beard]

22 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

This from Tamara

 However, as stated, these evolve & change as much as NWP evolves & changes its outlook according to its interpretation of the diagnostics that drive them.

 

No they do not change as frequently Tamara. That is why they are so useful in the 6-14 day time scale. They give a pretty decent 6-10 days (my research showed around 70% accuracy AT 500 mb for 6-10 days and, about 65 %  on the 8-14), prediction for the 500 mb overall pattern. Using them then for the surface is fraught with difficulty and requires a lot of experience but they do provide a very useful aid in trying to do that. Granted there is so much computer output from all manner of models nowadays but I still find them very useful in giving an overall background for what is likely to happen at 500 mb, winter or summer.

 

Not knocking your outlooks at all but just stating that your comment is, in my view, not correct.

 

 

70% isn't bad, but neither is it a fantastic number, though, I think? Granted, massive improvements have been made in the past 30 years, but we're not yet at the stage where we can look at an ensemble means or the NOAA and think "I've got the forecast" without any doubts? Just this morning I was going through some recent ECM ensemble archives to see how well the new upgrade is doing, and I noted that it largely missed the large troughs that developed to our west on 6th July and 13th July, one of which gave us a bonus couple of hot days, and the latter one was only a few hundred miles from achieving the same yesterday (it soaked us instead).

Edited July 15, 2023 by Man With Beard

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Not exactly ideal from the GEM 00Z  ensemble mean but as well encouraging that heights to Greenland are also dispersing and the mean pressure is further north than the GEFS 00Z ensemble mean is in two weeks time.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=21&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

9 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

It's been like Autumn up here since the last week of June, warm in the sun, but there's little of that. My head in already in an Autumn "space" because if it, even had the heating on a week ago. I see little in the models for any hope of reprieve. for something nicer in August.

The CET is still above average though and as other posters here have stated that the warm Atlantic is ensuring it happens.  Reckon another thing to keep an eye on is the hovmoller plots and see where they go.   

[mushymanrob]

22 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Think @johnholmesit wouldn't take all that much for the jet stream to shift further north again and a number of tweaks needed.  We are simply in a lull, even June 1997 and July 2009 had lulls in the weather.   

It could also move South.. thats the beauty of the "mean" charts over that period, they iron out "upgrades" and "downgrades" giving a more balanced view.

[mushymanrob]

Just now, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

The CET is still above average though and as other posters here have stated that the warm Atlantic is ensuring it happens.  Reckon another thing to keep an eye on is the hovmoller plots and see where they go.   

The CET may be above average atm, but we are entering a protracted period on a Northwesterly sourced flow... despite the warm SSTs in the North Atlantic this month may well finish below average... anyway, time will tell.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Agree on that @mushymanrobbut also I do think we ought to look out for other factors like the MJO, AO and NAO.  Also the predicted AAM rise too which has been mentioned.    

[Addicks Fan 1981]

It all hinges where the winds come from really and when CFS V2 downgraded our very warm July they downgraded it to average temperatures.  There will be something that will give way eventually of what we are having.    The met office did say we were going to have NW winds but then they also said the winds would back westerly.   

Edited July 15, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

The CET may be above average atm, but we are entering a protracted period on a Northwesterly sourced flow... despite the warm SSTs in the North Atlantic this month may well finish below average... anyway, time will tell.

It's certainly going to be well below average here sunshine-wise. We've only had 55 hours here up to yesterday, with almost half of the month gone.

I don't think the fact the CET is running around average tells the whole story. Cloud cover and wind has meant relatively high minima and the brief warm spell last weekend has boosted the average.

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It's certainly going to be well below average here sunshine-wise. We've only had 55 hours here up to yesterday, with almost half of the month gone.

I don't think the fact the CET is running around average tells the whole story. Cloud cover and wind has meant relatively high minima and the brief warm spell last weekend has boosted the average.

Maximum day time average CET is also above the long term average. The fact that is the case despite less sunshine surely points to our warming climate even more.

[northwestsnow]

21 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Maximum day time average CET is also above the long term average. The fact that is the case despite less sunshine surely points to our warming climate even more.

Nights seem quite mild I guess that's helping keep the average up.

Things have rapidly gone downhill this week though it's absolutely awful today I would not  be surprised if the street lights come on by tea time it's that grey and wet ..

[MattStoke]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nights seem quite mild I guess that's helping keep the average up.

Things have rapidly gone downhill this week though it's absolutely awful today I would not  be surprised if the street lights come on by tea time it's that grey and wet ..

The average maximum day time figure isn’t affected by night time minimum temperatures.

[MP-R]

41 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Maximum day time average CET is also above the long term average. The fact that is the case despite less sunshine surely points to our warming climate even more.

I'm running below average on both. I sometimes feel like I live in a different country to the CET zone.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Back to topic guys and the GEFS 6Z ensemble mean is in the same area as the 00Z with heights to Greenland being lowered.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&mode=0&code=31&ext=0

 

[Icedover]

I would just like to remind that this is the Model output thread.  I find all the input incredibly interesting - all year round. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

According to this the next WWB is still on but a little bit later on, a thing to keep an eye on for developments for more settled later on.   

Hovmollers - Michael J. Ventrice, Ph.D.

MIKEVENTRICE.WEEBLY.COM

---

o   Time–longitude plots of rainfall and winds, averaged over the indicated 10° latitude bands. o   Wind plots use 1° GFS analyses for the last 90 days o   Updated daily at 1200 UTC ...

 

[Man With Beard]

Not so bad in the south on Tuesday?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

The question there @Man With Beardis will the other models support it?  

[ANYWEATHER]

Well at least next weekends low remains rather flabby with hopefully no wind issues....!

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Bit of an agreement from GEFS and GEM 12Z ensemble means tonight that a much stronger azores high will build in at 384 hours ahead.    

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Pretty good from ECM 12Z op at 240 hours ahead I'd say.    

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

[mb018538]

36 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Bit of an agreement from GEFS and GEM 12Z ensemble means tonight that a much stronger azores high will build in at 384 hours ahead.    

Nothing good about it I’m afraid, that rapidly deepening low is headed our way the day after. All runs dreadful again and no signs at all yet of anything other than a continuation of the rubbish we’ve got now. I’ve really enjoyed 50mph winds today in the middle of summer