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Posted

Hmm the models at least get rid of the trough permanently anchored directly over the UK, however shifting it over Scandi with a ridge to our west really is only a modestly less bad result as we’d be prone to northerlies and developing lows sliding down over the UK from the north. A few hundred miles further east would make all the difference at mean we wouldn’t importing a flow from the northerly quadrant, and we could possibly get a bit of day on day heating going. 

Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
Posted

Absolutely agree on that @Aldercabout the wind orientation and all of that, we need really to have the highlighted feature of what I mentioned earlier of a WWB and pull ourselves out of the lull we have got in.    

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
18 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

You know what @mushymanrobI think we are set for the most westerly July ever in living memory.  Even that chart has westerlies in it.    

No we arent, The output isnt far off normal . This month is unlikely to rank amongst the wettest Julys which is what we would expect from a strong Westerly. Julys of 07, 08, 09, 12, 17 were all very wet, and ill wager most of not all were Westerly based julys

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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
Posted

Thanks for pointing that out to me @mushymanroband enlightening me on it.   

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Posted
  • Location: Hessle
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hessle
Posted

image.thumb.png.550077525f492fa72836d231c5c61060.png

UKMO is now also suggesting some kind of tropical system developing the central North Atlantic, could throw a bit of chaos into the model output.

The above chart though would probably be followed by some more settled weather though with some chilly nights for the time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
30 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Is that the high SST’s that delivered maxes last week of 14-17C in many parts….

i believe last week had am sourced air (and are you referring to the day which was raining under grey skies most of the day? ) 

id also see the nw flow having returning pm rather than direct pm. 

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

I don’t mean to be the bearer of bad news. But it doesn’t matter how we try to dress it up at the moment the output for the next 10 days isn’t great. Yes they are some usable days. But overall we are in a cool wet/showery regime for some time to come. Not great but sadly that seems highly likely as things stand. 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted
17 minutes ago, terrier said:

I don’t mean to be the bearer of bad news. But it doesn’t matter how we try to dress it up at the moment the output for the next 10 days isn’t great. Yes they are some usable days. But overall we are in a cool wet/showery regime for some time to come. Not great but sadly that seems highly likely as things stand. 

Indeed you can’t put 👄 lipstick on a monkey…🤣

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

image.thumb.png.51f15b634d586cb23c3a73865696ed9e.png

EC might improve by day 10 as we look to be slowly losing the blocking to the NW ..

 

Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
Posted
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.51f15b634d586cb23c3a73865696ed9e.png

EC might improve by day 10 as we look to be slowly losing the blocking to the NW ..

 

The minor concern of that chart is the trough to the north east of Scotland.  Small fly in the ointment.  Await if the ensemble mean backs it.   

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

I’m feeling the nwp beginning to sniff the possibility of an Atlantic troughing to our sw late week 2 

Early days and be interesting to see if an extended cluster picks that up 

of course this has to be in conjunction with the scandi trough losing its influence or we’ll just see a lw trough extension 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Does it get better in FI ?? I think not! 

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted
21 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Does it get better in FI ?? I think not! 

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Yea unfortunately that takes us out to a week on Sunday. I think we can more or less now write off July. Cannot see a sudden transformation in the final week of July. Such a shame for those who have booked their U.K. stay that co insides with the schools breaking up. Fingers crossed for August now 🤞

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
Posted

Sandwich Summer anyone?

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

Looks to me like 30-40% of ECM ensembles have some sort of low to the west by D15. Some of them have cleared the trough from the NE. 

Not the majority, though (yet?)

The improvement I was following a week ago for the 20th July looks fairly muted now, and unlikely to bring significant warmth - but a relaxation to a relentless run of lows.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

I’m feeling the nwp beginning to sniff the possibility of an Atlantic troughing to our sw late week 2 

Early days and be interesting to see if an extended cluster picks that up 

of course this has to be in conjunction with the scandi trough losing its influence or we’ll just see a lw trough extension 

Yes, this signal appeared briefly on the T264+ clusters the other day and then vanished on the next run.

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looks to me like 30-40% of ECM ensembles have some sort of low to the west by D15. Some of them have cleared the trough from the NE. 

Not the majority, though (yet?)

The improvement I was following a week ago for the 20th July looks fairly muted now, and unlikely to bring significant warmth - but a relaxation to a relentless run of lows.

Clusters 2 and 3 definitely headed thay way. 

IMG_7102.thumb.png.05290085e325261cca3f3538c513e275.png

Is this the expected signal now arriving?  Will be very interesting to see if a) this signal persists and grows, and b) whether it accelerates forward with heights to our east along with it as the models smell the coffee, or c) if it all goes down the toilet again!

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Posted
  • Location: Hessle
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hessle
Posted

Just looking at the 18z ensembles for a week on Saturday and definitely a more anticyclonic signal there.

I wouldn't be stupid enough to cancel my holiday on the final week of July. If anyone is cancelling a weeks holiday now because of the output then they shouldn't have booked it in the first place!

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: SE Wales.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, mild/warm summers and varied shoulder seasons
  • Location: SE Wales.
Posted

GFS 18z has the trough moving NW to Scandinavia next week and higher pressure building torwards the UK with a NWly flow.I would guess this would mean average highs in the day and cooler than average nights and a fair bit drier than now although I am new to this 😛. The trough does dip south a little torwards Scotland later on then the Azores ridges in bringing SWly but both are in FI

 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
8 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Looking at the ouput before the 12z models roll in fully. 

Euro 0Z calms down in about a week moving to an Atlantic-Azores Ridge however it also has a wierd feature that looks tropical rolling around, it should likely be ignored for this reason. 

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

GEM 0z is the most settled option with high pressure building much further north. 

GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

GEM12z largely agrees with the other models rather than its 0z run with a broad Azores-Atlantic Ridge and Scandinavian Low pattern.

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

GFS0z made much more of the low but the broad pattern is similar. 

GFSOPEU00_240_1.png

GFS6z is probably closer to the GEM in that the pattern is a little flatter albeit not significantly different. 

GFSOPEU06_240_1.png

GFS12z is much closer to the 0z GFS in that it is highly amplified and so we have a greater cyclonic influence. 

GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

Might be the storm that's in the Atlantic at the moment, that will go somewhere.

Posted (edited)

Looks like Troughy McTrough will start to disappear through next week however don’t get too excited as all GEM, GFS and Ukmo look to introduce a colder airmass to come down from the north leaving us in a showery regime, with cool temperatures both day and night. 
 

That said both GFS and GEM Ops are big cool outliers, however you wouldn’t bet against that solution given all the Ops runs are inline including ECM. That wait for warmth will undoubtedly continue into august. 

Edited by Alderc
Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
48 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Looks like Troughy McTrough will start to disappear through next week however don’t get too excited as all GEM, GFS and Ukmo look to introduce a colder airmass to come down from the north leaving us in a showery regime, with cool temperatures both day and night. 
 

That said both GFS and GEM Ops are big cool outliers, however you wouldn’t bet against that solution given all the Ops runs are inline including ECM. That wait for warmth will undoubtedly continue into august. 

Not looking overly promising I have to say. I was quite hopeful a couple of days back we might get a pressure build through next weekend, but that’s now looking unlikely. We will simply go from full blown unsettled that we have now to just slightly unsettled. Such a shame after that amazing June that the entirety of July could be down the chute before we know it. The waiting game continues…

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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

According to the ECM 00Z op this morning there is a ridge but its too west or south west of us, with north westerly or westerly winds being the dominant force.  Probably means average temperatures or below average temperatures and not that much rain on it.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

 

Edited by Addicks Fan 1981
Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Todays and the weekends charts and subsequent weather doesn’t get much worse for mid-July! And the quest for high summer weather for summer fans goes on………….

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