Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[Guest]

Hmm the models at least get rid of the trough permanently anchored directly over the UK, however shifting it over Scandi with a ridge to our west really is only a modestly less bad result as we’d be prone to northerlies and developing lows sliding down over the UK from the north. A few hundred miles further east would make all the difference at mean we wouldn’t importing a flow from the northerly quadrant, and we could possibly get a bit of day on day heating going. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Absolutely agree on that @Aldercabout the wind orientation and all of that, we need really to have the highlighted feature of what I mentioned earlier of a WWB and pull ourselves out of the lull we have got in.    

[mushymanrob]

18 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

You know what @mushymanrobI think we are set for the most westerly July ever in living memory.  Even that chart has westerlies in it.    

No we arent, The output isnt far off normal . This month is unlikely to rank amongst the wettest Julys which is what we would expect from a strong Westerly. Julys of 07, 08, 09, 12, 17 were all very wet, and ill wager most of not all were Westerly based julys

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Thanks for pointing that out to me @mushymanroband enlightening me on it.   

[Derecho]

UKMO is now also suggesting some kind of tropical system developing the central North Atlantic, could throw a bit of chaos into the model output.

The above chart though would probably be followed by some more settled weather though with some chilly nights for the time of year.

[bluearmy]

30 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Is that the high SST’s that delivered maxes last week of 14-17C in many parts….

i believe last week had am sourced air (and are you referring to the day which was raining under grey skies most of the day? ) 

id also see the nw flow having returning pm rather than direct pm. 

[Tamara]

27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

for what its worth, imho the response was a little ott, i didnt get anything out of your post that was anything but an honest opinion and one based on reality... LRFs are hard to get right.. BUT .. i do admire and respect those who are trying to produce them.

(Fairly) briefly two things

1) The comments related to the current snapshot of the middle to latter part of July - which as was explained does not really constitute an LRF within the wider discussion on this thread that had been, by some, discrediting seasonal forecasts. Such seasonal forecasts being much closer to fitting the description of an LRF. Hence it rather gave the impression that the present departure from the default pattern of the summer to date meant that seasonal LRF's were somehow wrong b/c of the present 10 to 15 day outlook.

2) The rest of the post was a general address to the nature of some of the responses in the thread itself and not specific to the post under reply. It is possible to read the post back and see that this was actually made clear,

There is a lot of (interesting) discussion outside of this thread about the ongoing disconnect of NWP vs the GSDM & teleconnectic outlook which is where the repeated suggestions come from that NWP is over egging the sustainability of the latest low AAM signal in the longer term. It is on that basis that the idea of sitting back and measuring this dichotomy over at least a few days might be better than jumping over each and every NWP suite each day as if to declare the "the teleconnections don't work" . This kind of situation can and clearly does take some time to resolve and in the time it does take it is possible to gather more data and update about progress and provide further answers and explanations. This is just not possible to do when that time is not allowed to gather that data as more diagnostic information comes in.. Being only at the half way point of the month and indeed summer itself it seems a sensible thing to do before jumping to conclusions. That was one of the central points in the general address and part of the frustration. 

[terrier]

I don’t mean to be the bearer of bad news. But it doesn’t matter how we try to dress it up at the moment the output for the next 10 days isn’t great. Yes they are some usable days. But overall we are in a cool wet/showery regime for some time to come. Not great but sadly that seems highly likely as things stand. 

[ANYWEATHER]

17 minutes ago, terrier said:

I don’t mean to be the bearer of bad news. But it doesn’t matter how we try to dress it up at the moment the output for the next 10 days isn’t great. Yes they are some usable days. But overall we are in a cool wet/showery regime for some time to come. Not great but sadly that seems highly likely as things stand. 

Indeed you can’t put lipstick on a monkey…

[northwestsnow]

EC might improve by day 10 as we look to be slowly losing the blocking to the NW ..

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC might improve by day 10 as we look to be slowly losing the blocking to the NW ..

 

The minor concern of that chart is the trough to the north east of Scotland.  Small fly in the ointment.  Await if the ensemble mean backs it.   

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Tamara said:

(Fairly) briefly two things

1) The comments related to the current snapshot of the middle to latter part of July - which as was explained does not really constitute an LRF within the wider discussion on this thread that had been, by some, discrediting seasonal forecasts. Such seasonal forecasts being much closer to fitting the description of an LRF. Hence it rather gave the impression that the present departure from the default pattern of the summer to date meant that seasonal LRF's were somehow wrong b/c of the present 10 to 15 day outlook.

2) The rest of the post was a general address to the nature of some of the responses in the thread itself and not specific to the post under reply. It is possible to read the post back and see that this was actually made clear,

There is a lot of (interesting) discussion outside of this thread about the ongoing disconnect of NWP vs the GSDM & teleconnectic outlook which is where the repeated suggestions come from that NWP is over egging the sustainability of the latest low AAM signal in the longer term. It is on that basis that the idea of sitting back and measuring this dichotomy over at least a few days might be better than jumping over each and every NWP suite each day as if to declare the "the teleconnections don't work" . This kind of situation can and clearly does take some time to resolve and in the time it does take it is possible to gather more data and update about progress and provide further answers and explanations. This is just not possible to do when that time is not allowed to gather that data as more diagnostic information comes in.. Being only at the half way point of the month and indeed summer itself it seems a sensible thing to do before jumping to conclusions. That was one of the central points in the general address and part of the frustration.

Hi Tamara, after the discussions last night I had a look back through June/July's discussions particularly from you and Matt, and I can see why it must have been frustrating to get a one liner from me "It isn't working" after so much effort you've put into your posts - so I would like to extend an apology to you too. As I mentioned to Matt, I only have snippets of time to visit the forum, I like to make sure I contribute so I post quickly if I can but yesterday reminded me of the dangers of being too brief on social media. But we're all on the same side - we are striving to make our forecasts as good as we can, and I take my hat off to you in your efforts to achieve this

The LRFs, by the way, was a slip of the tongue by me - I was referring to the seasonal forecasts that I think Mike Poole posted mid way through June showing unanimous agreement on July being a month with a ridge anomaly to the north-east. 

I think the worry I have is - and perhaps I'm interpreting your posts incorrectly, do tell me if I am - that maybe there is an undertone that the NWP isn't really worth following beyond a few days out, and if there is a clash between the NWP and background signals then the NWP should be the one to ignore. I would argue it just isn't that clear cut, based upon a lot of observation over the years. That's what I think I was getting at last night in my very brief post.

 

 

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Man With Beard

[bluearmy]

I’m feeling the nwp beginning to sniff the possibility of an Atlantic troughing to our sw late week 2 

Early days and be interesting to see if an extended cluster picks that up 

of course this has to be in conjunction with the scandi trough losing its influence or we’ll just see a lw trough extension 

Edited July 13, 2023 by bluearmy

[ANYWEATHER]

Does it get better in FI ?? I think not! 

[terrier]

21 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Does it get better in FI ?? I think not! 

Yea unfortunately that takes us out to a week on Sunday. I think we can more or less now write off July. Cannot see a sudden transformation in the final week of July. Such a shame for those who have booked their U.K. stay that co insides with the schools breaking up. Fingers crossed for August now

[Bradley in Kent]

Sandwich Summer anyone?

[Man With Beard]

Looks to me like 30-40% of ECM ensembles have some sort of low to the west by D15. Some of them have cleared the trough from the NE. 

Not the majority, though (yet?)

The improvement I was following a week ago for the 20th July looks fairly muted now, and unlikely to bring significant warmth - but a relaxation to a relentless run of lows.

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

I’m feeling the nwp beginning to sniff the possibility of an Atlantic troughing to our sw late week 2 

Early days and be interesting to see if an extended cluster picks that up 

of course this has to be in conjunction with the scandi trough losing its influence or we’ll just see a lw trough extension 

Yes, this signal appeared briefly on the T264+ clusters the other day and then vanished on the next run.

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looks to me like 30-40% of ECM ensembles have some sort of low to the west by D15. Some of them have cleared the trough from the NE. 

Not the majority, though (yet?)

The improvement I was following a week ago for the 20th July looks fairly muted now, and unlikely to bring significant warmth - but a relaxation to a relentless run of lows.

Clusters 2 and 3 definitely headed thay way. 

Is this the expected signal now arriving?  Will be very interesting to see if a) this signal persists and grows, and b) whether it accelerates forward with heights to our east along with it as the models smell the coffee, or c) if it all goes down the toilet again!

[Derecho]

Just looking at the 18z ensembles for a week on Saturday and definitely a more anticyclonic signal there.

I wouldn't be stupid enough to cancel my holiday on the final week of July. If anyone is cancelling a weeks holiday now because of the output then they shouldn't have booked it in the first place!

[Catbrainz]

GFS 18z has the trough moving NW to Scandinavia next week and higher pressure building torwards the UK with a NWly flow.I would guess this would mean average highs in the day and cooler than average nights and a fair bit drier than now although I am new to this . The trough does dip south a little torwards Scotland later on then the Azores ridges in bringing SWly but both are in FI. 

 

[alexisj9]

8 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Looking at the ouput before the 12z models roll in fully. 

Euro 0Z calms down in about a week moving to an Atlantic-Azores Ridge however it also has a wierd feature that looks tropical rolling around, it should likely be ignored for this reason. 

GEM 0z is the most settled option with high pressure building much further north. 

GEM12z largely agrees with the other models rather than its 0z run with a broad Azores-Atlantic Ridge and Scandinavian Low pattern.

GFS0z made much more of the low but the broad pattern is similar. 

GFS6z is probably closer to the GEM in that the pattern is a little flatter albeit not significantly different. 

GFS12z is much closer to the 0z GFS in that it is highly amplified and so we have a greater cyclonic influence. 

Might be the storm that's in the Atlantic at the moment, that will go somewhere.

[Guest]

Looks like Troughy McTrough will start to disappear through next week however don’t get too excited as all GEM, GFS and Ukmo look to introduce a colder airmass to come down from the north leaving us in a showery regime, with cool temperatures both day and night. 
 

That said both GFS and GEM Ops are big cool outliers, however you wouldn’t bet against that solution given all the Ops runs are inline including ECM. That wait for warmth will undoubtedly continue into august. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by Alderc

[mb018538]

48 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Looks like Troughy McTrough will start to disappear through next week however don’t get too excited as all GEM, GFS and Ukmo look to introduce a colder airmass to come down from the north leaving us in a showery regime, with cool temperatures both day and night. 
 

That said both GFS and GEM Ops are big cool outliers, however you wouldn’t bet against that solution given all the Ops runs are inline including ECM. That wait for warmth will undoubtedly continue into august. 

Not looking overly promising I have to say. I was quite hopeful a couple of days back we might get a pressure build through next weekend, but that’s now looking unlikely. We will simply go from full blown unsettled that we have now to just slightly unsettled. Such a shame after that amazing June that the entirety of July could be down the chute before we know it. The waiting game continues…

[Addicks Fan 1981]

According to the ECM 00Z op this morning there is a ridge but its too west or south west of us, with north westerly or westerly winds being the dominant force.  Probably means average temperatures or below average temperatures and not that much rain on it.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[ANYWEATHER]

Todays and the weekends charts and subsequent weather doesn’t get much worse for mid-July! And the quest for high summer weather for summer fans goes on………….