Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[damianslaw]

Bear with me...

The question is whether summer 2023 will end up one with two big wedges of bread sandwich (the settled sunny warm blocks June and August)  with a generous filling of wet in the middle ( July), or one with a solid base (June) but with ample messy topping - more of a trifle summer! We shall see.

Edited July 14, 2023 by damianslaw

[Djdazzle]

37 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Luck has nothing to do with it. This is the climate and that's a fact. There are expectations that all summers are summary and the fact is that they are not, or not all the time. Now the last couple of weeks and perhaps another 10 days are simply normal in any give summer.  We take the rough with the smooth here or move to the continent.  I'm not having a dig, but you may as well ask Tamara there to dump the study and grab the dice and let us all know if we are getting a 6. 

Point taken, but luck does come into it because there were a very unfortunate set of circumstances that lead us to the position. I know that we were spoilt last year, and that unsettled weather will happen. But to be stuck in this rut while so much of the continent is dry and sunny is a shame.

 

Tamara is a great poster, but even her great analyses can be thrown by unexpected changes.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

7 hours ago, Alderc said:

Looks like Troughy McTrough will start to disappear through next week however don’t get too excited as all GEM, GFS and Ukmo look to introduce a colder airmass to come down from the north leaving us in a showery regime, with cool temperatures both day and night. 
 

That said both GFS and GEM Ops are big cool outliers, however you wouldn’t bet against that solution given all the Ops runs are inline including ECM. That wait for warmth will undoubtedly continue into august. 

Stuff the temperatures will the cloud pee off?

[Tamara]

Bom dia! A frente prevista para as próximas horas já está a...

FB.WATCH

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Bom dia! A frente prevista para as próximas horas já está a penetrar o noroeste peninsular, trará algo de água ao litoral norte e centro durante as...

Boa tarde e todos (my Portuguese!)

A departure from recent broad scale NWP vs diagnostic discussions

The above link discusses the trailing front straggling all the way down to the NW Iberian continent  from the unseasonal deep Atlantic low plaguing the UK today and this weekend. This front is bringing some mostly light but welcome rainfall to the NW coastal fringes of Spain & Portugal and even a light shower possible into central parts of Portugal (inc IMBY tonight and at first tomorrow)

Portugal has been on the periphery of the ongoing southern European heatwave and largely escaped the worst of it -with only parts of the Alentejo and Algarve in the SE of the country seeing values close to 42C early in the week. Mostly low to mid/upper 30s has been the daily maximums and with Atlantic breeze influences helping to temper the heat. This is hot enough of course but nothing unusual obviously & considered within the boundary of relative normality by the Portuguese. Nights have been comfortable enough also - mainly the high teens rather than the upper twenties and low thirties across the border in inland Spain! The weekend provides a break from the most intense heat across the Spanish border, as these Atlantic influences penetrate a little further into the interior, before the pattern re-sets again next week to be similar to this week.

So the looped jet stream keeping N Europe, esp UK and Scandinavia, cooler and more unsettled than average has on the other hand helped to restrict westward advancement of the (dangerous) heat dome from also covering the Atlantic side of the Iberian continent on this occasion. Swings & roundabouts with these things.

[Man With Beard]

5 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Bom dia! A frente prevista para as próximas horas já está a...

FB.WATCH

---

Bom dia! A frente prevista para as próximas horas já está a penetrar o noroeste peninsular, trará algo de água ao litoral norte e centro durante as...

Boa tarde e todos (my Portuguese!)

A departure from recent broad scale NWP vs diagnostic discussions

The above link discusses the trailing front straggling all the way down to the NW Iberian continent  from the unseasonal deep Atlantic low plaguing the UK today and this weekend. This front is bringing some mostly light but welcome rainfall to the NW coastal fringes of Spain & Portugal and even a light shower possible into central parts of Portugal (inc IMBY tonight and at first tomorrow)

Portugal has been on the periphery of the ongoing southern European heatwave and largely escaped the worst of it -with only parts of the Alentejo and Algarve in the SE of the country seeing values close to 42C early in the week. Mostly low to mid/upper 30s has been the daily maximums and with Atlantic breeze influences helping to temper the heat. This is hot enough of course but nothing unusual obviously & considered within the boundary of relative normality by the Portuguese. Nights have been comfortable enough also - mainly the high teens rather than the upper twenties and low thirties across the border in inland Spain! The weekend provides a break from the most intense heat across the Spanish border, as these Atlantic influences penetrate a little further into the interior, before the pattern re-sets again next week to be similar to this week.

So the looped jet stream keeping N Europe, esp UK and Scandinavia, cooler and more unsettled than average has on the other hand helped to restrict westward advancement of the (dangerous) heat dome from also covering the Atlantic side of the Iberian continent on this occasion. Swings & roundabouts with these things.

Que calor! I lived in Portugal as a child and loved checking our thermometer in the afternoon during August to see if we'd reached 45C! Rain in July is almost unheard of in southern parts of Portugal.

It looks pretty serious a little further east for the start of next week. I've never seen the 30C uppers line approach Italy before, but some models achieve this next Tuesday. The European temperature record no doubt will be under threat again.

[northwestsnow]

In broad terms Exeter not expecting an improvement until mid August.

That's a long way out and I'm hoping for an improvement later in July..

NW winds mentioned which will favour the SE if there is any warmth on offer.

Edited July 14, 2023 by northwestsnow

[Addicks Fan 1981]

53 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

In broad terms Exeter not expecting an improvement until mid August.

That's a long way out and I'm hoping for an improvement later in July..

NW winds mentioned which will favour the SE if there is any warmth on offer.

I don't think the UKMO are all that certain currently and things will trend better, a case of patience on this is needed.   

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Can I say also that Exeter also said that the middle of this month would be OK in their 30 day update on 14th June? What changed the shape of it was the zonal winds and the AAM drop as other posters have mentioned here.   On the subject of the met office next Thursday doesn't look too bad.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Northwest NI]

2 hours ago, Tamara said:

Bom dia! A frente prevista para as próximas horas já está a...

FB.WATCH

---

Bom dia! A frente prevista para as próximas horas já está a penetrar o noroeste peninsular, trará algo de água ao litoral norte e centro durante as...

Boa tarde e todos (my Portuguese!)

A departure from recent broad scale NWP vs diagnostic discussions

The above link discusses the trailing front straggling all the way down to the NW Iberian continent  from the unseasonal deep Atlantic low plaguing the UK today and this weekend. This front is bringing some mostly light but welcome rainfall to the NW coastal fringes of Spain & Portugal and even a light shower possible into central parts of Portugal (inc IMBY tonight and at first tomorrow)

Portugal has been on the periphery of the ongoing southern European heatwave and largely escaped the worst of it -with only parts of the Alentejo and Algarve in the SE of the country seeing values close to 42C early in the week. Mostly low to mid/upper 30s has been the daily maximums and with Atlantic breeze influences helping to temper the heat. This is hot enough of course but nothing unusual obviously & considered within the boundary of relative normality by the Portuguese. Nights have been comfortable enough also - mainly the high teens rather than the upper twenties and low thirties across the border in inland Spain! The weekend provides a break from the most intense heat across the Spanish border, as these Atlantic influences penetrate a little further into the interior, before the pattern re-sets again next week to be similar to this week.

So the looped jet stream keeping N Europe, esp UK and Scandinavia, cooler and more unsettled than average has on the other hand helped to restrict westward advancement of the (dangerous) heat dome from also covering the Atlantic side of the Iberian continent on this occasion. Swings & roundabouts with these things.

I flew back from Portugal yesterday and the dividing line and front you describe was very obvious from the air. It was completely clear up until around Porto and then shortly after the grey /white wall lasted all the way through the Bay of Biscay before entering our UK trough characterised by tall skyscraper nimbus clouds and instability.
 

Nice pics of Porto flying over and Dragon River

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by Northwest NI

[summer blizzard]

33 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm sure Exeter predicted a drier and warmer July, so no reason to trust anything they say for longer term forecasts.

Most long term modelling in late June were forecasting a robust wave to cross the Pacific driving another AAM burst. The reality is what we see below. 

We had a significant wave cross the Pacific in March to end the La Nina, another reasonable wave just in view at the start and then another large wave cross the Pacific at strength during May. Where forecasts have fallen down is that the wave during June was pretty weak throughout and the models have now backed off the wave during July. They insist on a standing wave forming during August but they have said that since May so i shall believe that when we see it. The lack of any wave at strength is what has caused our current setup. 

[mb018538]

Decent GEM tonight at day 9 and 10 - a bit more of a ridge and drier. Temps no great shakes at 22-24c maxima, but that's perfectly acceptable compared to what we've had to put up with recently. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Decent GEM tonight at day 9 and 10 - a bit more of a ridge and drier. Temps no great shakes at 22-24c maxima, but that's perfectly acceptable compared to what we've had to put up with recently. 

Suppose our consolation prize as things stand is our CET still being slightly above average.   Though I do broadly agree with you on this as it will be more acceptable than what we are having now.   Noticed also that the GFS 12Z at 144 hours is very similar to the UKMO for next Thursday.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

 

[terrier]

Another very poor GFS run this evening. A wet weekend coming up. A few usable days early next week before we see another low pressure moving in next Thursday with further heavy rain and cool temps out into the following weekend. Then right out to the end of the run it’s further rain or showers. No sign of anything warm or settled.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Very encouraged by the next NAO rise and when it rises to neutral it will stabilise which could be respectable for late July.   

[mb018538]

ECM...low pressure, cool air aloft, low 500mb heights....can only lead to big, beefy showers.




We also get this lovely chart of nothingness. Not one isobar over the UK or Ireland.

[danm]

Outlook for the next week or so has watered down further. We should get some slightly better weather but also cloud and some showers during the week. Next weekend again could see another trough arrive

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

Outlook for the next week or so has watered down further. We should get some slightly better weather but also cloud and some showers during the week. Next weekend again could see another trough arrive

The question is will the ECM 12Z be an outlier or not? We will have to wait and see what the ensemble mean has to offer.    

[summer blizzard]

It's due a weak low running south of the UK into France. We remain well north of the jet by this stage. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Just seen a snap shot of the NOAA anomolies at 8-14 days time, they still have the trough over us, but with an average confidence rating, so in fairness they are not certain if it'll happen or not.   

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

[Scorcher]

Looks like Australia may well have retained the Ashes going by tonight's model runs. Hard to see how there will be five full days of play in the sort of setup shown from midweek onwards.

At the very least you'd expect showers and there is the risk of slow moving weather fronts as well crossing the country. That could easily wash out whole days of the test.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Looks like Australia may well have retained the Ashes going by tonight's model runs. Hard to see how there will be five full days of play in the sort of setup shown from midweek onwards.

At the very least you'd expect showers and there is the risk of slow moving weather fronts as well crossing the country. That could easily wash out whole days of the test.

According to the NOAA prognostic discussion @Scorcherthe model with the biggest percentage was the ECM 00Z ensemble mean this morning at 34 per cent on both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outputs.    

[SqueakheartLW]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Most long term modelling in late June were forecasting a robust wave to cross the Pacific driving another AAM burst. The reality is what we see below. 

We had a significant wave cross the Pacific in March to end the La Nina, another reasonable wave just in view at the start and then another large wave cross the Pacific at strength during May. Where forecasts have fallen down is that the wave during June was pretty weak throughout and the models have now backed off the wave during July. They insist on a standing wave forming during August but they have said that since May so i shall believe that when we see it. The lack of any wave at strength is what has caused our current setup. 

Don't know why models keep insisting on a strong or super Nino then. The way this is going we may be already close to the peak of the event and we may stabilise around the +1 to +1.5C range

[SqueakheartLW]

A rather poor 2m temp chart for the GFS for my location

Only get 3 days above 20C here on the mean as maxes out of 16 days, very poor for July it has to be said.

GEM fares better though

6 days of the 16 here get above 20C but that is still a rather poor rating as well

[Neil Harris]

23 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Looks like Australia may well have retained the Ashes going by tonight's model runs. Hard to see how there will be five full days of play in the sort of setup shown from midweek onwards.

At the very least you'd expect showers and there is the risk of slow moving weather fronts as well crossing the country. That could easily wash out whole days of the test.

We don't need 5 days..

Can we get 3 and a half?

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Neil Harris said:

We don't need 5 days..

Can we get 3 and a half?

If it looks dodgy (which it does), then conditions won't really be ripe for a high scoring game anyway. It'll probably swing and seam all over the gaff.

We can blast 250 in 50 overs and roll them over. Just have to keep checking back on the models and pray!