Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

[Thunders]

1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

Arome advertising a healthy ~1,300j/KG MUCAPE over a swathe of East Sussex, with isolated pockets of up to 1,600! Not giving up on this one just yet lol, I need this!

We both need it, it’s even more humid, even thought I’m under a thick winter duvet, knowing us, we’ll think it’s not gonna happen then a cell will just decide that it want to arrive on our shores. I think that mucape is probably gonna lead to something, surely

[Azazel]

Rainband almost here. A soggy night to come 

[Thunders]

Just now, Azazel said:

Rainband almost here. A soggy night to come 

After the rainband, is the risk of storms pretty much over other than the postfrontals 

[Norfolk Sheep]

22 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Where I can understand the frustrations of this year's storm season for some, can we please stay on topic and not derail this thread into a thread about the performances of the Met Office.

As for this evening, there is still a bit of uncertainty as to where any storms will occur or if any will occur at all. I was planning on chasing this evening despite the inevitable long drive. However I'm now not convinced the drive would be worth it.

Edit: Eastward shift on AROME 12z. Risk area now looks to be Kent and then grazing the coasts of Essex and southern Suffolk.

A late in the day easterly shift seems to be standard now. 

I wish I was in Holland tonight instead of a couple of weeks ago!

[congerball]

Luce Bay, Scotland. Looking SE.
Mull of Galloway in the distance / Irish Sea

Edited August 18, 2023 by congerball

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

What are we saying for fat south east Manston way is it worth chasing 

[Metwatch]

The shortest distance I'd have to travel to have some chance of seeing lightning tonight is probably 2 hours at least, anywhere east / SE of Thetford, and after midnight.

Would likely be 5am by the time I'm back home from it, so don't see it as being worth it at all.

Edited August 18, 2023 by Metwatch

[Wivenswold]

Considering that the Met Office seem pretty confident that Sussex/Kent/London and East Anglia could see a "lot of lightning" there seems to be remarkable pessimism on this thread from those within the warning zone. 

I'm staying up, if it don't happen so be it, there will be others this autumn. 

[Ellozee]

Really humid here, all the earlier rain turned back into some sort of soup...

[Thunders]

15 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Considering that the Met Office seem pretty confident that Sussex/Kent/London and East Anglia could see a "lot of lightning" there seems to be remarkable pessimism on this thread from those within the warning zone. 

I'm staying up, if it don't happen so be it, there will be others this autumn. 

I'm also staying up, hoping this will occur

[Tamsin]

31 minutes ago, Mitch the motorbike storm said:

What are we saying for fat south east Manston way is it worth chasing 

Supacell said:  "Eastward shift on AROME 12z. Risk area now looks to be Kent and then grazing the coasts of Essex and southern Suffolk."

So yes, Kent is still in the game

[pinball wizard]

North sea muck is clearing here near the Suffolk coast with signs of instability beginning to make their presence. Can understand some of the negativity on here from some, but, the ukv has shown for some days now that the risk of storms was for kent, East Anglia and possibly lincs. Rain everywhere else. I'm still confident EA will get a show in around 4 hours time. 

Good luck everyone.

[Harry]

The modest CAPE across the SW is resulting in some surprising amounts of electrical activity. Hopefully a good sign for the next few hours

[snowrye]

I ready and raring for later

[cheese]

7 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

North sea muck is clearing here near the Suffolk coast with signs of instability beginning to make their presence. Can understand some of the negativity on here from some, but, the ukv has shown for some days now that the risk of storms was for kent, East Anglia and possibly lincs. Rain everywhere else. I'm still confident EA will get a show in around 4 hours time. 

Good luck everyone.

Only a couple of days ago UKV had thunderstorms breaking out significantly further west over Lincolnshire/Nottinghamshire and then moving into Yorkshire. Kent wasn’t in the equation at all. It is an undeniable significant shift eastward over the past 48 hours. The fact that we’re discussing the possibility of any activity being offshore is just sad. 

Edited August 18, 2023 by cheese

[Polaris]

An Atlantic front inbound. What’s new! Can guarantee will be the bore fest as per usual with standard rains. A rumble in Kent if you’re lucky. 

[claret047]

4 hours ago, fujita5 said:

I look to be in a good position here in Clacton. I need to be up relatively early in the morning but can feel an all-nighter coming on. May try and grab a bit of sleep early this evening and get up about 11 to see what's happening

I will be looking to the east from Chelmo then. 

[pinball wizard]

31 minutes ago, cheese said:

Only a couple of days ago UKV had thunderstorms breaking out significantly further west over Lincolnshire/Nottinghamshire and then moving into Yorkshire. Kent wasn’t in the equation at all. It is an undeniable significant shift eastward over the past 48 hours. The fact that we’re discussing the possibility of any activity being offshore is just sad. 

Ok that's one run at one point in time, get what you say but still think the overwhelming evidence over the last 48 hours was showing what I said. Let's agree to disagree, hope that there is a show tonight and as many as possible get to see something

[Storm mad]

Any one care to guess when and where initiation will start?

[Cumulus62]

27 minutes ago, claret047 said:

I will be looking to the east from Chelmo then. 

Same here!

[CoventryWeather]

2 minutes ago, Storm mad said:

Any one care to guess when and where initiation will start?

Guessing around 9. Arome has shifted west again - having parts of Northamptonshire on the edge of the band.. 

But radar watching probably the best thing to do now. Best of luck to those tonight. Let's hope for a decent show! 

Edited August 18, 2023 by CoventryWeather

[Harry]

Slightly concerned about the band of rain drifting up from France that wasn’t particularly modelled.

Low humid murk has really wafted in here and I have no idea what the mid levels are looking like

Edited August 18, 2023 by Harry

[Jamie M]

15z AROME has things kicking off just after 8 pm

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

8 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

15z AROME has things kicking off just after 8 pm

3 mins left

[Jamie M]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

3 mins left