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Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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CoventryWeather Seasoned

CoventryWeather

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, heat, sunshine, hail. Basically Seasonal.
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
Posted
3 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

How nice of the ARPEGE to follow the N France coastline... Really is painful living in the UK!

image.thumb.png.8f07befc20b921a2210bbfc8f82a844a.png

If it's any consolation the NetWx MR has an MCS tearing across SE England in a 35m/s sheared environment. Don't give up till it's over I guess!

CAPE.thumb.png.72508ca25f9433e576772f781e929d50.pngCAPE1.thumb.png.c0986336f96a2ca3b55dce0b2ef0d020.pngSHEAR.thumb.png.61d44168d6412ce9d09eb2ac75070879.png

Such a waste. Just be happy for even a Kent clipper - just a storm somewhere will make it an event of some sort!!!

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carinthian
carinthian

How about this for a convective cell. Picture taken on approach to Majorca Airport yesterday. C

Ellozee
Ellozee

A few snaps from the beach last night. Mostly cloud based until it had passed, but still a decent enough storm.

Lincs Observation
Lincs Observation

Afternoon all so coming home from work in Sleaford and on my way to Anwick saw the biggest funnel cloud I’ve ever seen, you do see them a lot in Lincolnshire. Any way I was desperately looking to

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

The stormforecast.eu shows some interesting probability charts for the far SE. Shows how much uncertainty there is at this stage as this has a 50-75% lightning probability stretching NE from Somerset to Lincolnshire, despite the majority of our main convective models showing very little. Not sure I've seen a 5-10% 2cm+ hail line over any part of the UK at any point this year?

If we can improve on confidence with regards to the far SE seeing something, this would definitely fall within my chase territory.

Could contain:

Could contain:

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
6 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

How nice of the ARPEGE to follow the N France coastline... Really is painful living in the UK!

image.thumb.png.8f07befc20b921a2210bbfc8f82a844a.png

If it's any consolation the NetWx MR has an MCS tearing across SE England in a 35m/s sheared environment. Don't give up till it's over I guess!

CAPE.thumb.png.72508ca25f9433e576772f781e929d50.pngCAPE1.thumb.png.c0986336f96a2ca3b55dce0b2ef0d020.pngSHEAR.thumb.png.61d44168d6412ce9d09eb2ac75070879.png

Reminds me of the 2am storm a few years back, hope if this one happens it's as active. Have only ever had one storm with a constant rumble for about an hour and a half, and non stop lightning. Although actually it was quite scary, every storm has felt disappointing since. I guess it's probably an adrenaline thing.

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Alderc 2.0 Seasoned

Alderc 2.0

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Maybe a very tiny shift northwards for the threat of the odd storm later tonight into tomorrow? UKV pretty gung-ho but quite a few of models bring some sort of precipitation into the south, although my biggest concern would be we end up on the messy side of any storms/showers and the lightning remains concentrated offshore (as per usual) 

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pinball wizard Community Regular

pinball wizard

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
Posted

image.thumb.png.4826407c7215e407d5ab635a53556273.png

 

The 06z UKV is interesting in so far as it provides two separate waves of possible storms. First wave during the morning from what looks like a channel MCS, then a second less pronounced wave late afternoon early evening.

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chapmanslade Community Regular

chapmanslade

Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
Posted

Initiation already ongoing over Biscay heading towards central western France. Very hot here (34C at 11.20 BST) but seems unlikely we will get the predicted 41C here now as storms seem to be initiating earlier than expected. Storms are moving very quickly.

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Jamie M Accomplished

Jamie M

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Posted

image.thumb.png.729ddb5834d7843ebb640910d87ce2bf.pngimage.thumb.png.93754edc0095f1edf3c4818b5e7dbbe2.png

Willing to nab my slight chance at anything

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

If UKV 9z is anything to go by could be a very thundery day tomorrow across the SE. AROME 6z was a shift northwards too.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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CoventryWeather Seasoned

CoventryWeather

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, heat, sunshine, hail. Basically Seasonal.
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
Posted
52 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

If UKV 9z is anything to go by could be a very thundery day tomorrow across the SE. AROME 6z was a shift northwards too.

Been quite a significant shift northwards this morning. Perhaps a risk that most central southern regions are at risk of something tomorrow. 

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Pendeen Weather Watcher Newbie

Pendeen Weather Watcher

Posted
  • Location: Pendeen, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, windstorms, sunshine & rainbows
  • Location: Pendeen, Cornwall
Posted

That looks rather interesting that looks like to me a potential squall line setting up, was this only one run by any chance? I think the met office computer model was hinting at something thundery ? other computer models are keeping things dry but rather humid 😒

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Jamie M Accomplished

Jamie M

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Posted

image.thumb.png.94df73b20752f79e84e113b4527ded37.pngimage.thumb.png.abb69adf40d8509a6f1499ff0fcb1996.png

Now if it could shift north a tad bit more 

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted

Looks good....

...for the French.

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
20 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

image.thumb.png.94df73b20752f79e84e113b4527ded37.pngimage.thumb.png.abb69adf40d8509a6f1499ff0fcb1996.png

Now if it could shift north a tad bit more 

No it's perfect lol

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LightningLover Accomplished

LightningLover

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Posted (edited)

Food for thought- I recall 22-23rd June 2016 had a rather similar set up to this one coming, wherein it's more of a boundary between a warm humid airmass and cool northerly as opposed to a plume with a long fetch southerly. That event was one of my favorites, as it gave Hastings (where I was living at the time) a solid 13  hours of continuous thunder and lightning from training convection- and a large, channel filling MCS during the early hours of the 23rd to boot! I'm sure @SenlacJackcan vouch for that!

Edited by LightningLover
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LightningLover Accomplished

LightningLover

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Posted

Exceedingly Similar!

Could contain:

Could contain:

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Exceedingly Similar!

Could contain:

Could contain:

That is a fantastic shout. I’ll have to look more into the 2016 event. At first glance maybe 2016 shows bit more digging south of the trough which may allow a slightly greater advection of hot air towards the southeast. 

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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shogan83 Contributor

shogan83

Posted
  • Location: Kettering, Northants
  • Location: Kettering, Northants
Posted

By pure Luck I am working in Maidstone tomorrow morning and then Arundel Friday so i'm going too be staying at the in-laws on Winchelsea beach tomorrow afternoon/evening instead of driving back and forth from Northants, this would be a pleasant stroke of good fortune if anything pops off! 

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LightningLover Accomplished

LightningLover

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

That is a fantastic shout. I’ll have to look more into the 2016 event.

Thank you! It caught my attention as the 2016 one was nothing short of spectacular (and caused severe flooding across the SE). One thing I note immediately is the much higher T850's tomorrow

 

image.thumb.png.24b69f1b296b3c5cbb021fd8de050fa2.pngimage.thumb.png.96a904db2f0764a000f70e56a2065e11.png

Edited by LightningLover
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Jamie M Accomplished

Jamie M

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Posted
41 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Food for thought- I recall 22-23rd June 2016 had a rather similar set up to this one coming, wherein it's more of a boundary between a warm humid airmass and cool northerly as opposed to a plume with a long fetch southerly. That event was one of my favorites, as it gave Hastings (where I was living at the time) a solid 13  hours of continuous thunder and lightning from training convection- and a large, channel filling MCS during the early hours of the 23rd to boot! I'm sure @SenlacJackcan vouch for that!

 

Some 1 am lightning from that storm, think the 25th was quite stormy as well iirc 

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Jamie M Accomplished

Jamie M

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Posted

image.thumb.png.d17b9476d7391965f182266ba5141eb2.png

12z UKMO is certainly going for it 

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Metwatch Maestro

Metwatch

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
Posted

Could chase this into Cambridgeshire if it came off.

Could contain:

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