September 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Frigid]

You know what, I don't mind where this CET lands. Could be 18C for all I know. A bit like a Dec 2015 situation, interesting to see how high it'll be.

[SqueakheartLW]

13 minutes ago, Frigid said:

You know what, I don't mind where this CET lands. Could be 18C for all I know. A bit like a Dec 2015 situation, interesting to see how high it'll be.

Maybe best to get the December 2015 anomaly out of the way now in September so by the time winter comes we can see negative anomalies instead.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, Don said:

You're too late lol!  Current September CET record is 16.9C back in 2006, but that might be on its last legs!!

With climate change happening its a good sporting chance it'll come off.   

[Don]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Maybe best to get the December 2015 anomaly out of the way now in September so by the time winter comes we can see negative anomalies instead.

Or could it could go the opposite way and we see a December with a 10C+ CET?!

[reef]

30 minutes ago, Don said:

Or could it could go the opposite way and we see a December with a 10C+ CET?!

That would be quite something as the warmest November is 9.9C!

[Don]

22 minutes ago, reef said:

That would be quite something as the warmest November is 9.9C!

Oh without doubt, but would you bet against it these days?!

[Summer Sun]

20.4c to the 10th

6.8c above the 61 to 90 average
5.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Metwatch]

Didn't reach the 21C, but 20.4C still equally as exceptional. Likely the warmest first 10 days out of any September on record in the CET region, and probably out of almost all of the summer months.

A slow decrease now expected from tomorrow's value, but how much it goes down we don't know. Further warmth seems possible later this week. Still the chance is there for it to maybe be the warmest on record / warmer than June.

[Don]

Met office extended outlook has trended warmer, so chances of anything other than an exceptionally warm month are diminishing fast! 

[richie3846]

Wow

[Froze were the Days]

33 minutes ago, Don said:

Met office extended outlook has trended warmer, so chances of anything other than an exceptionally warm month are diminishing fast! 

God! looked at the current temp anomaly and just laughed (or I'd cry)...I wonder what impact this will have on the months ahead?

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

..I wonder what impact this will have on the months ahead?

I won’t say what I think because I will get ridiculed!

[SqueakheartLW]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

God! looked at the current temp anomaly and just laughed (or I'd cry)...I wonder what impact this will have on the months ahead?

I'm starting to think a 11C CET year could be back on again if we get a 17C or warmer September. September 2022 wasn't that warm in the end due to a 2nd half of the month cooldown and if we go on to have October and November 2023 above +2C on the anomalies then it would only take a December slightly above average to achieve another 11C CET year due to the colder than average December 2022.

A rather sobering thought that after setting that new 11C CET year that another one could be on the cards this year, whether we beat 2022 or fall short of it but still finish 11C or higher.

2 hours ago, Don said:

I won’t say what I think because I will get ridiculed!

Will have to hope the warm September / mild winter theory doesn't hold out. We would hope to see a 1659/60 repeat. September 1659 was a 16C month then winter 1659/60 was colder than average.

[Don]

38 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

I'm starting to think a 11C CET year could be back on again if we get a 17C or warmer September. September 2022 wasn't that warm in the end due to a 2nd half of the month cooldown and if we go on to have October and November 2023 above +2C on the anomalies then it would only take a December slightly above average to achieve another 11C CET year due to the colder than average December 2022.

A rather sobering thought that after setting that new 11C CET year that another one could be on the cards this year, whether we beat 2022 or fall short of it but still finish 11C or higher.

Will have to hope the warm September / mild winter theory doesn't hold out. We would hope to see a 1659/60 repeat. September 1659 was a 16C month then winter 1659/60 was colder than average.

I think the chances of another 11C year are definitely realistic and could well match 2022 or beat it!

Ref to September, yes we are almost certainly going to have to hope this coming winter bucks the trend.  It will take one hell of a cool spell with cold nights later in the month, to drag the CET down into the 14's now!

Edited September 11, 2023 by Don

[damianslaw]

Might be worth comparing very mild dry Septembers and very mild average/ wet Septembers. See if any difference in the winters...

It has been a very dry start, but the outlook suggests a nearer average even wet remainder to the month.

I may be wrong but Sept 06 and 16 were very dry months I think?...

[Don]

17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Might be worth comparing very mild dry Septembers and very mild average/ wet Septembers. See if any difference in the winters...

It has been a very dry start, but the outlook suggests a nearer average even wet remainder to the month.

I may be wrong but Sept 06 and 16 were very dry months I think?...

I think September 2016 was dry but not sure about the likes of 2006 or 2021?

[Weather-history]

29 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Might be worth comparing very mild dry Septembers and very mild average/ wet Septembers. See if any difference in the winters...

It has been a very dry start, but the outlook suggests a nearer average even wet remainder to the month.

I may be wrong but Sept 06 and 16 were very dry months I think?...

Neither Sep 2006 nor 2016 were that dry. 

Sep 2014 was very dry

[Scorcher]

10 hours ago, Frigid said:

You know what, I don't mind where this CET lands. Could be 18C for all I know. A bit like a Dec 2015 situation, interesting to see how high it'll be.

Definitely a much higher chance of breaking the 2006 record than finishing below 16C IMO.

[Scorcher]

13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Neither Sep 2006 nor 2016 were that dry. 

Sep 2014 was very dry

I recall a lot of rain falling on the September 13th 2016 in these parts- the day Gravesend reached 34.4C.

The Manchester City Champions League game was called off that evening because of a waterlogged pitch. There were a few fairly wet days in the 2nd half of the month as well.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Definitely a much higher chance of breaking the 2006 record than finishing below 16C IMO.

Looks that way currently, but could change still.

[Roger J Smith]

I was able to update table of records broken a few pages back, will move it up to current posting later in month.

Almost all records were broken again 8-10 Sep but not daily max or min for 8 Sep, only mean broken on 8 Sep.

Will be the first time since 1 July 2015 interrupted a seven-day consecutive run from 1976 to find five consecutive daily means broken. One string of four days in Dec 2015 and two including a tied value in Feb 2004 and also May-June 1947. and also four from 24-27 Sep 1895  Numerous cases of 3 consecutive records going back to 1775 and 1777. List of all of those follow: 

 

Previous cases of 3 to 7 consecutive high daily mean CET records

(a) seven consecutive

28 June to 4 July 1976 (record terminated when 1 July 2015 broke 1976 date record)

 

(b) five of six consecutive

28 Sep to 3 Oct 2011 holds all but 1st Oct (1985) and in v2.0 came within 0.1 of taking that one.

 

(c) five consecutive

6 to 10 Sep 2023

 

(b) four consecutive

2-5 Feb 2004 (2nd tied with 2002)

31 May to 3 June 1947 (1st tied with 1781)

24 to 27 Sep 1895

16-19 Dec 2015

 

(c) three consecutive

10-12 March 1957

25-27 March 1777

28-30 April 1775

9-11 June 1970

28-30 June and 2-4 July 1976

28-30 July 1948

22-24 Aug 1955 (24th tied 1990)

31 Aug - 2 Sep 1906 (only in CET legacy as 31 Aug lost to 2005 in v2.0)

5-7 Oct 1921

12-14 Nov 1938 (12 Nov tied 1947)

21-23 Nov 1947

30 Dec 2021 - 1 Jan 2022

--------------------------------

As I was travelling for past few days, I am a bit out of loop on next steps, but will still find some time available to update records, at least to about 14 Sep, will be on road back to base after 14 Sep for a few days. 

Edited September 12, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 20.2C, +4.4C above average. Rainfall 20.8mm 31.6% of the monthly rainfall.

Finally the dry period has broken as well and still chucking down as I type.

[Polarwesterly]

If the first 10 days average 20.3, the second 10 days estimated for 16.0 the last 10 days would need to hit 14.5 to finish on 16.93

[Summer Sun]

20.4c to the 11th

6.8c above the 61 to 90 average
5.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

Only the high minimum record broken yesterday, this may be the end for now of the rampage. Copy of the portion of the September records (v2.0) broken (bold) or not quite broken (in brackets):

 

Date ____ high max ___high mean___high min _____ 2023 values (bold are new records) 

04 Sep __ 27.4 (1880)__ 20.6 (2005)__ 15.4 (2022) ____ 28.1 (20.2) (12.3) ____Run CET_record
05 Sep __ 26.5 (1999)__ 22.4 (1949)__ 18.4 (1949) ____ 27.7 (20.6) (13.4) ____18.7 ___ 19.3 (1906)
06 Sep __ 25.6 (1898)__ 20.9 (1898)__ 16.2 (1898) ____ 28.1 _21.1 _(14.1) ____19.1 ___ 19.0 (1906)

07 Sep __ 28.3 (2021)__ 20.9 (1868)__ 16.3 (2016) ____ 28.8 _23.3 _17.7 _____ 19.7 ___ 19.0 (1906)
08 Sep __ 29.4 (1911)__ 21.6 (1898)^_ 16.0 (1898, 2009)_ (28.6)_22.0_(15.4) ____20.0 ___ 18.7 (1898,1906)
09 Sep __ 25.7 (1895)__ 19.5 (1781, 1898)_ 15.5 (2021) _ 28.9 _22.8 _16.6 _____ 20.3 ___ 18.5 (1898)
10 Sep __ 26.5 (1959)__ 19.1 (1865, 2011)_ 16.0 (2011) _ 27.1 _21.6 _16.1 _____ 20.4 ___ 18.2 (1898)

11 Sep __ 27.2 (1919)__ 20.2 (1999)__ 15.9 (2021) ____(22.6) (19.9) 17.2 _____ 20.4 ___ 18.1 (1865.1898)

12 Sep __ 25.4 (1891)__ 20.3 (1945)__ 17.2 (1945) _ (19.2) (17.0) (14.7) ___ 20.1 ___ 18.2 (1865)

13 Sep __ __ __ __ __ _ see table p6 for non-record 2023 portion ___ _____ 19.6 __ 18.2 (1865)

14 Sep __ __ __ __ __ _ see table p6 for non-record 2023 portion ___ _____ 19.3 __ 18.1 (1865)

15 Sep __ __ __ __ __ _ see table p6 for non-record 2023 portion ___ _____ 19.1 __ 18.1 (1865)

16 Sep __ __ __ __ __ _ see table p6 for non-record 2023 portion ___ _____ 18.9 __ 18.2 (1865)

17 Sep __ __ __ __ __ _ see table p6 for non-record 2023 portion ___ _____ 18.8 __ 18.1 (1865)

18 Sep __ __ __ __ __ _ see table p6 for non-record 2023 portion ___ _____ 18.6 __ 17.9 (1865)

19 Sep __ __ __ __ __ _ see table p6 for non-record 2023 portion ___ _____ 18.4 __ 17.8 (1865)

20 Sep __ __ __ __ __ _ see table p6 for non-record 2023 portion ___ _____ 18.3 __ 17.8 (1865)

21 Sep __ table now continues to be updated page 12 version ... ... ... .... 18.1 __ 17.5 (1865)

___ No updates to table, see page 12 version ___

 

Table edited to show also running CET vs records for each date in that stat.

For next two days 1865 continues to hold at least part of lead, 17.2  for 1 to 22 Sep, and is tied at 17.1 1st to 23rd with 2006, before 2006 runs lead to end of Sep (17.1 to 26th, 17.0 to 28th, 16.9 29-30th). Will track this stat also, to see how far into Sep 2023 can hold this lead. 

Edited September 22, 2023 by Roger J Smith