Global interconnected weather - Model Output, Pattern Drivers plus Impact worldwide

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 09/04/2024 at 03:48, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

This Rossby Wave Break Event is transitioning into an ongoing significant flash flood threat which intensifies particularly though not exclusively toward the Gulf Coast States over the next few days.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Ski resorts Australia: First snow falls on ski fields almost eight weeks ahead of winter

WWW.9NEWS.COM.AU

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The first snow of winter has fallen at Australian ski resorts in NSW and Victoria.

First Aussie mainland snow of 2024

WWW.WEATHERZONE.COM.AU

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Snow has fallen overnight in Australia's mainland ski resorts and continues to tumble down on Tuesday morning as a cold front sweeps across southeast Australia. As a heavy band of moisture...

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 09/04/2024 at 03:48, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Looks like another Rossby Wave Break Event is likely by next weekend though exact positions of cut off lows and high pressure TBD

As the cut off low across West America via this Rossby Wave Break Event transitions into Northern States the next significant flash flood threat will evolve as the cyclonic system enters Iowa.

Newest data suggesting highest precip rates at the border of Nebraska, South Dakota and Iowa, with the flash flood threat moving into Minnesota and Wisconsin then progressing Northeastwards.

Severe weather associated with this event too.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

'Tornadoes' leave trail of destruction across UK: Country is battered as gale force winds and 450 lightning strikes wreak havoc - damaging homes and cars and overturning caravans | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

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The first possible tornado struck Knutton in Staffordshire, damaging cars and ripping off tiles at about 6.30am - before the second swept through the West Bridgford area of Nottingham at 7.30am.

 

‘Tornado’ hits town as strong winds batter the UK

WWW.AOL.CO.UK

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Parks, bridges and tourist attractions across the UK were closed on Monday due to the windy weather conditions.

 

 

 

 

The very active weather will continue to evolve throughout Europe with multiple significant weather events.

Snow

Ongoing significant snowfalls continuing across the Alps.

Another potentially significant snow event could swing back into Albania, Kosovo, current trends really keen into Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, perhaps North Macedonia and parts of West and Southwestern Serbia, this event currently modelled for Sunday and Monday.

There is also an ongoing snow event from the Belarusian border crossing Russia with significant accumulations.

And another area of snow intensifying as it moves across Norway again further significant accumulations likely.

Significant flash flood threat.

A significant rainfall event will develop through Saturday into Sunday across Greece and moving into Turkey, after crossing the Black Sea this could continue bringing a significant flash flood risk into Moldova and Ukraine and possibly Belarus.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[matty40s]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Interesting small cyclonic system in the Atlantic which has been given 10% to obtain tropical characteristics over the next few days

 

After decaying this systems moisture will become part of a Rossby Wave Break Event during this weekend into early next week.

Looks like this system spawned from a CCKW from South America 

 

With influence of CCKW activities and the MJO itself mentioned in the above post, there will be a significant - possibly major snow event across the Himalayas as a mix of troughing and cut off lows converge by April 28th. Overall a significantly snowy setup for Russia and Asia with accompanying cold > significantly cold temperature anomalies which will extend into parts of the Middle East.

This once again coinciding with a move into a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation.

This CCKW and MJO activity will also keep significant rainfall and significant flash flood risk events ongoing across East and Southeast China, Taiwan and Japan through at least May week 1.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Excellent representation of typical El Ninò patterns, this is particularly evident in the ongoing and upcoming setup throughout South America.

Snow

Multiple waves of significant snowfalls across higher elevations of Chile, Argentina and some in Peru. Significantly below average temperatures will cover Chile and Argentina in particular.

Significant Rainfall & Significant Flash Flood Risks.

Again typical characteristics of El Ninò, ongoing significant rainfall will continue with further events moving between Uruguay and South - Southeast Brazil - Rio Grande Do Sul.

Heat - Significant Heat & Potential further drought conditions 

Overall warm weather covering a large part of Northern South America however the most significant heat events are modelled for Southeast Brazil which will extend across Paraguay.

After historic drought, El Niño rains pose new hurdle for Brazil’s farmers

DIALOGUE.EARTH

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Soy producers in country’s south face downpours caused by El Niño, hot on the heels of a damaging three-year La Niña

Climate impacts of El Niño Phenomenon in Latin America and the Caribbean | GRID-Arendal

WWW.GRIDA.NO

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El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural phenomenon that has occurred for centuries. Ocean and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific tend to fluctuate between El Niño (warming) and a drop...

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

'This will enhance what I believe is a CCKW - Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave from South Africa. As the MJO moves across South Africa and enhances the CCKW this sees significant rainfall and flash flood risks particularly off the coast of Tanzania & Kenya with places such as Zanzibar and Pemba Island prone.'

This MJO + CCKW combination led to the formation of tropical cyclone Hidaya 

 

From my quoted post

'Current timing shows the MJO starting to move across the Maritimes during April week 4 into May week 1.'

Credit JMA

Further MJO and persistent CCKW activities particularly across Melanesia will give opportunity for cyclonic developments potentially tropical in nature > typhoon potential with a setup discussed here 

 

Current data suggesting a system possibly close to the Philippines as we head toward Mid May [15th approximately] 

8 run trend from GFS

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Significant snowstorm ongoing in Northern Russia, also snowfall (some significant accumulations) in Turkey, along the Georgian & Russian border, part of the Himalayas, West and Southwestern China.

This low pressure and below average temperature setup was discussed briefly in my post here 

 

And can be noted in the MJO phase 2 composites 

Multiple significant rainfall & flash flood threat events upcoming across America via MJO feedback consisting of overall below average pressure and CCKW activities from the Pacific and South America in particular through the next 10 days at least - May 23rd.

 

Further excellent representation of MJO and -PNA feedback.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

On 08/05/2024 at 21:01, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Further MJO and persistent CCKW activities particularly across Melanesia will give opportunity for cyclonic developments potentially tropical in nature > typhoon potential with a setup discussed here 

 

On 08/05/2024 at 21:01, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Current data suggesting a system possibly close to the Philippines as we head toward Mid May [15th approximately] 

"My attention continues to go toward the Bay Of Bengal as the MJO and CCKW activity creating the above systems is modelled to continue East Northeast into the Bay Of Bengal with current timing by week 4 of May, this will bring a heightened period of tropical rainfall & flash flood risks to India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh + Myanmar"

"Sea Surface Temperatures are very supportive for Tropical developments in these areas"

"Southwest & West Pacific

We have Invest 93W, quite large discrepancies between the GFS, GEM and their Ensembles between the systems in the Indian Ocean / Bay Of Bengal and Western Pacific this is due to the handling of the MJO and CCKWs. GEM less keen on the Bat Of Bengal development however its stronger with Invest 93W wheras as shown GFS / GEFS stronger in the Bay Of Bengal but less keen on developing Invest 93W,  will be intriguing which model suite is best with accuracy here."

"Similar to the other areas mentioned in this post the Sea Surface Temperatures very supportive for Tropical developments."

Still a few discrepancies on the track of this cyclone now developing in the Bay Of Bengal which I'll show however this will be an EXTREME event.

There are multiple areas which will recieve EXTREME rainfall totals

West - Southwest India - Coastal Kerala

West - Southwest Sri Lanka

These areas are seeing these conditions due to a seperate lowering of pressure / potential small cyclone.

As the cyclone begins to develop and intensify [occuring right now] the outer bands will hone in on Myanmar with the Eastern, Southeastern, Northeastern sections of cyclones being most prominent for severe thunderstorm & supercell formation (Northern Hemisphere with the reverse for Southern Hemisphere handy info from the link below) which will take place across Myanmar. I wouldn't be surprised if tornadic activities occur there. 

 

Why The Right Side Of A Hurricane Is Particularly Dangerous

WWW.FORBES.COM

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Landfalling hurricanes can be particularly dangerous on the right side. Here is why.

I've posted this link prior in other threads however also great info on the above discussion  

 

Breakdown: Why the right side of a hurricane is the strongest

WWW.ACTIONNEWS5.COM

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All sides of a hurricane can be dangerous but the right side tends to be the most dangerous and the strongest

These EXTREME rainfall totals could extend across the Andaman + Nicobar Islands.

Significant rainfall totals also look likely to occur in the Maldives, Thailand, Laos and into Southwestern China.

Main discrepancies between the various models is on where the cyclone tracks during this weekend with the GEM and its Ensembles keen on a track across Western Myanmar into its border with Bangladesh, potentially close to St. Martins Island 🏝 

Other models such as the GFS and its Ensembles, Icon and ECM AI model take a West Northwest track with a wide landfall range between Southeast India extending Eastward toward the Indian & Bangladesh Border. Given the Sea Surface Temperatures are running at the maximised level on the Tropicaltidbits scale 32C [actual values may be higher] the parameters are highly supportive for rapid cyclogenisis, this gives a very real possibility for a SEVERE CYCLONE to develop.

Dependent on the cyclones track but there are signals for the significant potentially extreme rainfall totals to extend into the Himalayas.

Easy to note just how highly anomalously wet this event will be particularly for Myanmar at this time of the year.

Onto the cyclone in the Western Pacific, as noted in my post from the 8th of May the models have done a good job although originally shown by Mid May its only roughly a week out This cyclone / typhoon is modelled to track along the Southeast and Eastern coastline of the Philippines from tomorrow through this weekend with cyclogenisis - strengthening likely as it moves to the East of the Northern Philippines, it will continue to track North Northeastward with a merger into a trough moving Eastward from Southeast Asia into Japan by next Tuesday > Wednesday approximately.

 

As well as the MJO moving from the Indian Ocean > The Maritimes > Western Pacific  as discussed in multiple recent posts, this activity is feedback of recent MJO progression particularly phase 6 which also corresponds with a developing cyclonic system as a Kelvin Wave / CCKW moves from Northwest South America and crosses the Caribbean. 

Doing research I found these relevant links on cyclones in the Bay Of Bengal.

 

Bay of Bengal Cyclones | NASA Center for Climate Simulation

WWW.NCCS.NASA.GOV

 

 

Why Is The Bay of Bengal So Prone To Cyclones? | Weather.com

WEATHER.COM

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The Bay of Bengal sees approximately five times as many cyclones as the Arabian Sea. We examine the reasons behind this curious statistic. - Articles from The Weather Channel |...

Details on cyclones / typhoons / hurricanes and the Saffir-Simpson Intensity Scale

Tropical Cyclones: development and organization - Encyclopedia of the Environment

WWW.ENCYCLOPEDIE-ENVIRONNEMENT.ORG

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Tropical cyclones extract their energy from the heat stored in the oceans and transform it into fierce winds, rains and devastating waves.