Hurricane Idalia

[matty40s]

Yup, spotted first on the euro models

and a couple of others about a week ago, way before anything actually existed. GFS said no. 

Slowly(see posts in Atlantic Hurricane season) the other models came on board and the NOAA started to issue a possible , and the models started to hint at something bigger.

By the 24th, we finally had confirmation from the NHC that something might happen.

And by midday on the 24th.. 

 

 

So now we have this new thread, for a system still not declared TD, which may well become this years most costly weather event to the US.

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

Edited August 27, 2023 by matty40s

[matty40s]

 

Edited August 27, 2023 by matty40s

[Dorsetbred]

A busy Atlantic at the moment

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

Getting there slowly...

 

[matty40s]

 

[Penguin16]

Is this potentially a major hurricane Cat3+?

[Wivenswold]

If it moves slowly and stays over water longer then Cat 4 or 5 isn't out of the question but yes, it's currently forecast to be Cat 2-3 by most models.  Less than 48 hours to co-ordinate a large evacuation of prone coastline must be a nightmare. Residents of Tampa and Panama City should be ready for any movement of the track too.  With hurricanes either side of Florida, flooding could be really widespread.   

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Wivenswold said:

If it moves slowly and stays over water longer then Cat 4 or 5 isn't out of the question but yes, it's currently forecast to be Cat 2-3 by most models.  Less than 48 hours to co-ordinate a large evacuation of prone coastline must be a nightmare. Residents of Tampa and Panama City should be ready for any movement of the track too.  With hurricanes either side of Florida, flooding could be really widespread.   

It’s trending east and will probably continue to do so. Same happened with Ian. Will Tampa finally get the direct hit they’ve been fearing?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Not looking good. 31c sea temps this will be tapping into. Enough to blow up a tropical storm into a major hurricane in very quick time. The only hope is that this can accelerate quickly to shorten timespan over that rocket fuel water. 

[Jo Farrow]

Idalia passing between western Cuba and Yucatan peninsula, Mexico today. "A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba" NHC

21:00, tiempo del centro de México "tropical storm Idalia, will cause occasional torrential rains (from 150 to 250 mm) in Quintana Roo, intense rains (from 75 to 150 mm) in Campeche and Yucatán; wind with gusts of 70 to 90 km/h with waves of 2 to 4m high and conditions for the formation of waterspouts on the coasts of Quintana Roo and Yucatan" SMN conagua

[matty40s]

9 hours ago, Wivenswold said:

Residents of Tampa and Panama City should be ready for any movement of the track too.  With hurricanes either side of Florida, flooding could be really widespread.   

We have a full moon and highest tides of the year on Tuesday 

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by matty40s

[Alderc 2.0]

I have an emergency call with my management team shortly as the Tampa Bay Area looks like increasing likely to receive damaging flooding at least. 
 

I still think the NHC guidance is conservative, with increasing limited shear wouldn’t surprise me if this a Strong Cat 4 or higher by landfall. I think it Will absolutely bomb out today. 

[Guest]

NHC stating Idalia will be a dangerous major hurricane in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.

[cheese]

 

Just now, Tidal Wave said:

NHC stating Idalia will be a dangerous major hurricane in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.

Was just about to post this. Absolutely unsurprising that it’s expected to become a major hurricane now as it traverses those steamy gulf waters.

Edited August 28, 2023 by cheese

[WeatherArc]

Incredible convection on Idalia right now, Wonder if the NHC will make it an official hurricane today, still some wind shear in the area but if it can power through that it's going to be a major problem.

I was at the GOM in Florida around 3 weeks ago, the waters aren't just incredibly warm they are record breaking, water temperatures hit 38.4C degrees when I was there, I would suspect rapid intensification when this thing gets clear of the wind shear in the central Gulf.  

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Latest NHC warning is projecting a Major Hurricane on landfall along with an expected devastating storm surge. A few models are also projecting a Category 4.

[Metwatch]

 

[Thunder Snow]

I think it'll make a low cat 4, but I still think there's a chance of a cat 5

[WeatherArc]

Latest IR satellite view of Idalia 

Looks like some very hot towers going up.  She's tried to form multiple centers over the past few hours, wind shear has held back successful formation so far.

IMO I would expect a successful center formation imminently, shear is rapidly weakening and will continue to do so over the next couple of hours.

Once that inner core has formed rapid intensification will occur, especially when she moves over the above average sea surface temps of the gulf. 

CAT 4/CAT5 defo not out of the question. 

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by WeatherArc