Hurricane Idalia

[WeatherArc]

Eye formation imminent and underway 

IR indicates the clouds right at the center of Idalia are beginning to warm (dissipate) while being circled by a wall of explosively tall CB with some tops at -80 degrees.  

Visible satellite shows the same thing, we are at least starting to see the formation of a proper eyewall. 

Latest dropsonde from Hurricane Hunter aircraft supports this, v-shape indicates drying and subsidence within the core.  

[matty40s]

Idalia hits Cuba..

 

[matty40s]

A decent thread on the likelihood of stormsurge levels up from Tampa Northwards.

Tampa is spared the worst, with a couple of feet, however, further north Clearwater,  Crystal River are 9-13 feet, and Cedar Key could well see the whole island inundated.

 

[matty40s]

 

[Metwatch]

30 minutes ago, matty40s said:

 

The beach almost fully flooding on the Fort Myers beach webcam now. This place was completely destroyed by Ian last year and that is visible on the Windy webcam when you go back to last year.

https://www.windy.com/-Webcams/United-States/Florida/Fort-Myers-Beach/Diamond-Head-Beach-Resort-Roof/webcams/1249044918?26.438,-82.130,11

Edited August 29, 2023 by Metwatch
More recent webcam snapshot

[matty40s]

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by matty40s

[Penguin16]

Is there any chance this could be cat 5?

[January Snowstorm]

Not much news on this today, assuming it's not deepening as much as some had thought. It looks to me like this will be a Cat 3 at worst hitting an area with a relatively low population. So good news in that the worst case scenario less likely now.

[matty40s]

24 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:

Is there any chance this could be cat 5?

No, hasnt quite got the time, and is being steered fairly swiftly now. It could well be Cat4 at landfall.

However, the storm surge could be worse than Ian as the sea ain't got nowhere else to go but up the land!!

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Not much news on this today, assuming it's not deepening as much as some had thought. It looks to me like this will be a Cat 3 at worst hitting an area with a relatively low population. So good news in that the worst case scenario less likely now.

I wish I shared your optimism.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

16 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Not much news on this today, assuming it's not deepening as much as some had thought. It looks to me like this will be a Cat 3 at worst hitting an area with a relatively low population. So good news in that the worst case scenario less likely now.

Ian and Michael didn’t rapidly strengthen until right before landfall, so I’m not counting out anything yet. The sea temps are as hot as they’ve ever been just to note. 

[January Snowstorm]

24 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Ian and Michael didn’t rapidly strengthen until right before landfall, so I’m not counting out anything yet. The sea temps are as hot as they’ve ever been just to note. 

Yes fair point about sea temps, but I was watching CNN earlier and their forecaster reckoned a Cat 3 was possible at landfall. They obviously know about sea temps too and are factoring it into their predictions. Still a notable event but not extra ordinary for this time of year

[Metwatch]

Low chance but still worrying.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

33 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Yes fair point about sea temps, but I was watching CNN earlier and their forecaster reckoned a Cat 3 was possible at landfall. They obviously know about sea temps too and are factoring it into their predictions. Still a notable event but not extra ordinary for this time of year

Overnight tonight is when this could really get nasty. Hurricanes tend to undergo rapid intensification more at night due to better ventilation and colder cloud tops. 

[mountain shadow]

Already Cat 2, could be 4 by landfall in a narrow band given rocket fuel sea temps.

[Marcus_surfer]

Few lightning strikes near the eye wall now. Strong thunderstorms on her outer bands

[Rain Lady]

I presume many hurricane watchers pop into this site.

 

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

This is also a good one....Ryan has a big team nowadays...

 

Clearwater....

 

[WeatherArc]

????

Taking her time but looks like shes getting there. 

[Allseasons-Si]

39 minutes ago, matty40s said:

This is also a good one....Ryan has a big team nowadays...

 

Clearwater....

 

Been watching him since the start,some great coverage in there.

 

[WeatherArc]

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Cat 3 threshold now.

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Metwatch]

And so the sun sets on Idalia. A very different looking morning tomorrow, for parts of north west / north Florida.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Super unique setup here. 

3 main development regions

• Developing trough with Atmospheric river conditions in Nova Scotia
• Franklin
• Idalia

One of the main questions which will go right to the wire is can Idalia achieve Cat 3 status ie major strength, there will be a period of rapid cyclogenis not far off making landfall. 

Why?

Idalia will get a boost of energy as some separation occurs within the trough to her north 

 

Leading on this leads to a significant RWB event which includes remnant energies of Franklin

I expect this will be one of the highest impact regions 

 

Steinhatchee continues to jump out as a key area here

 

Regardless of exact eye location another piece of history coming in

Eyebrow raising scenario which will occur following Idalias move offshore.

She will be sitting pretty much in the zone Franklin resides ATM which is unusual in its own right but possibilities for redevelopment and a complete curving track re entering Florida [maybe the Carolina coast] 

This is highly influenced by the high pressure that sets in to her north looks as if there's a localised retrogression pattern 

Superb data this from the GEM also gives more insight to the emerging tropical waves > Africa and the GEM keen on further activities into the EPAC

 

Pretty much bang smack in Steinhatchee that 

 

[Metwatch]

I spy with my little eye... a little eye