Hurricane Idalia

[WeatherArc]

Another attempt ongoing. 

 

 

[Thunder Snow]

She's strengthened somemore

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Even more impressive that this convection and hot towers are developing like this during the day. I suspect we will be waking up to a confirmed Cat 1 tomorrow morning. 

[WeatherArc]

A few crazy model runs this evening 

Pressure down to 928mb here, hopefully overdoing it a very high ceiling is apparent. 

Seems that lots of people agree this thing will keep intensifying until it hits land though.  

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

A few crazy model runs this evening 

Pressure down to 928mb here, hopefully overdoing it a very high ceiling is apparent. 

Seems that lots of people agree this thing will keep intensifying until it hits land though.  

Crumbs. Extremely worrying times,the potential is scary. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Practically a hurricane now, 70mph sustained winds. Wouldn’t be surprised to see this start to bomb down during tonight. 

[matty40s]

 

[Guest]

Westwards shift in track is very bad news - longer sea track.

[matty40s]

This is 2 days before any hurricane impact, the astronomical moon is raising the water in St Petersburg Florida rihht now!!

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

If the Macdill Airforce base shifts out, we know its serious!!

[WeatherArc]

Two Hurricane hunter aircraft now flying into Idalia, going to be interesting to see what data they pick up.

 

Massive blow up of hot towers on the southern side, starting to get the look. 

Edited August 28, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

First datas in, pressure in the center has deepened to 983 hPa. Interesting that this is deeper than most if not all models were suggesting. 

The dry air in the upper levels also makes me wonder if she's about attempt to form an eye or at least begin to organise. 

Very likely a hurricane now, especially with that drop in pressure. Will see what the wind data shows. 

Still some uncertainty if her lows will become stacked and allow for further intensification while in the Gulf.  Additionally shes still being affected by wind shear thats stopping her fully developing her inner core and therefore keeping her from intensifying.  

Edited August 28, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Idalias up to something, starting to really wrap that precipitation around her, development of inner core pretty imminent over the next few hours 

Another large convective burst seen on IR satellite 

The moment that inner core has formed and those mid/low level cyclones/lows are vertically stacked, rapid intensification can begin 

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherEnthusiast]

11 hours ago, WeatherArc said:

Another attempt ongoing. 

 

 

Tropical Storm Idalia Public Advisory

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

[matty40s]

 

[Hurricane Andrew]

Waves picking up in key west high tide in 4 hours

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Live from Key West! The Southernmost Point Webcam brings you sunrises, sunsets, sunshine and storms. Watch revelers, trolleys, and occasionally roosters.

 

[Thunder Snow]

She's now a hurricane 

[Derecho]

Definitely feeling some similarity with Matthew and Michael here. Could be nasty.

Unusual for such a high level of activity during a strong El Nino year. Will it continue into September?

[Jo Farrow]

Warnings erupt as Hurricane Idalia heads for Florida midweek

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Florida is preparing for the midweek arrival of Hurricane Idalia which is likely to be a major hurricane by then. Storm surge is the major concern with damaging winds and torrential rains adding more flooding.

 

[WeatherEnthusiast]

1 hour ago, Hurricane Andrew said:

Waves picking up in key west high tide in 4 hours

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HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N  85.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 140SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N  85.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  85.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.9N  84.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 33.3N 71.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 85.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 29/1200ZAt 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located by Cuban radar near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 85.0 West. Idalia is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northward motion is expected today, followed by a faster north-northeast motion later today and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, reach the Gulf coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, and move close to the Carolina coastline on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is likely through landfall, and Idalia is forecast to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane before landfall on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Was watching Andy hall (American meteorologist) earlier and his take on it. He noted that the moisture associated with Idalia will be getting steered in the same direction ahead of the system, which was a key similarity to what made Michael become a monster, continuously tapping into steamy gulf Floridian air. 
 

On a few of the runs, it even shows Idalia doing an Ivan and potentially looping back round for a second punch into Eastern Florida next week. This has been a very unusual year for displaced weather patterns. 

[WeatherArc]

Idalia is now an official hurricane. 

No sign of an eye just yet on visible satellite but it defo has the look, think we will be seeing an eye form over next few hours.  

IR shows continued blowup of convection around the center with multiple hot towers/VHTs forming around the inner core and a clear sign that she wants to intensify. The fact the towers are now rotating around her center also signifies intensification. 

Radar shows she's also managed to completely close off her inner core, nothing stopping her from starting rapid intensification now. 

Hurricane hunter plane has recorded that the pressure in the core has dropped to 977mb, additionally there's a 7-8 degree temperature spike within the core, again another sign of intensification.

35 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Was watching Andy hall (American meteorologist) earlier and his take on it. He noted that the moisture associated with Idalia will be getting steered in the same direction ahead of the system, which was a key similarity to what made Michael become a monster, continuously tapping into steamy gulf Floridian air. 
 

On a few of the runs, it even shows Idalia doing an Ivan and potentially looping back round for a second punch into Eastern Florida next week. This has been a very unusual year for displaced weather patterns. 

I'm a big fan of Andy,  he's incredibly knowledgeable and i would recommend anyone interested in weather to watch him on YT. 

Yeah i'm a little concerned about those runs, Idalia would move into the Atlantic then decide she wants another taste of the Florida sunshine and warm waters, loop back round hit Florida then move back over the Gulf. Let's hope these runs are overdoing that curve to the south in the Atlantic. 

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by WeatherArc

[Metwatch]

 

 

[Hurricane Andrew]

57 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

 

 

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