Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[AWD]

Whilst I don’t believe much will happen here, the skies are certainly of interest, with some special looking cloudscapes that have been particularly absent throughout summer IMBY;

 

[minus10]

57 minutes ago, Sprites said:

 

Yes frustratingly that looks like the picture for us here in the south and east until it cools down on Tuesday i think. Its incredible to think yesterday was sixth consecutive day in a row of temp being over 30 deg in the uk in september with 33.2 at Kew and yet no storms to speak of here in this part of the uk and not looking likely we will get any from the forecasts...pleased for those in Midlands/North but have to admit frustrated today as i was really hoping for a birthday storm...

..as others have mentioned late October last year really delivered the goods for storms here and as i remember it wasnt that warm beforehand..and yet 6,7 sweltering days this time and...well its the weather...

Great videos and pics..keep them coming and good luck to those in the north today...

Edit...just seen Nicks forecast...maybe a little more hope...

[ChannelThunder]

Something of a surface low developing? Please excuse my quick crappy drawing over the screenshot

[Met4Cast]

Will need to monitor how things progress in the coming hours, a fair amount of cloud moving northwards at the moment, this mornings system has been rather poorly modelled by both the UKV & AROME. 

Very complex forecasting day today. If all goes to plan, there is the potential for some very active thunderstorms, likely large hail (2-4CM) associated with supercell thunderstorms and the risk of locally severe wind gusts (60-70MPH). Most favoured region appears to be N/NW England will initiation likely across the Midlands somewhere with storms tracking NNE from that point. 

The increased cloud cover however may serve to limit maximum potential being reached, but we'll see. Tricky, exciting. Goodluck to all those chasing! Potentially the most active day of the year *IF* all goes to plan.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

Whilst I don’t believe much will happen here, the skies are certainly of interest, with some special looking cloudscapes that have been particularly absent throughout summer IMBY;

 

There’s a small storm near Portishead

[robt]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Will need to monitor how things progress in the coming hours, a fair amount of cloud moving northwards at the moment, this mornings system has been rather poorly modelled by both the UKV & AROME. 

Very complex forecasting day today. If all goes to plan, there is the potential for some very active thunderstorms, likely large hail (2-4CM) associated with supercell thunderstorms and the risk of locally severe wind gusts (60-70MPH). Most favoured region appears to be N/NW England will initiation likely across the Midlands somewhere with storms tracking NNE from that point. 

The increased cloud cover however may serve to limit maximum potential being reached, but we'll see. Tricky, exciting. Goodluck to all those chasing! Potentially the most active day of the year *IF* all goes to plan.

There was definitely a defined line of storm development yesterday, which, I'm hopeful will remain in a similar area today.

[parhelion]

Just now, ChannelThunder said:

Something of a surface low developing? Please excuse my quick crappy drawing over the screenshot

Funny I'd just checked the radar too after topping up the car with petrol. There's certainly a distinctive swirl there. I'm sure people better qualified than me can confirm either way  

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Something of a surface low developing? Please excuse my quick crappy drawing over the screenshot

I thought the same but running the radar animation there's virtually no rotation so I don't think so, it just looks like one.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

I'll give you an 'Insightful' for your enthusiasm! 

I’ll thank you for your insight

[Chris K]

I spoke too soon...looks like a lovely little storm has reinvigorated itself heading my way around Bristol.

[ChezWeather]

Is this cloud going to scupper our chances?

[Frosty hollows]

My thoughts too

[Rammie]

6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

There’s a small storm near Portishead

I can hear it in Clevedon 

[Cornishdave]

Cracking night last night, I’m from exeter but stayed home in Cornwall, sat outside on the patio looking out over st Austell bay and the lightning was nothing short of fantastic. Lots of forks, some upward and anvil crawlers. It was out to sea so could barely hear thunder but one of the best setups I’ve ever witnessed. Then I was woken up by it again around 2am I guess. If that’s all I see this year then I’m happy! 

[ChannelThunder]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I thought the same but running the radar animation there's virtually no rotation so I don't think so, it just looks like one.

True! It's just doing a good impression of looking like one I guess!

[robt]

Few from the one that hit Crowle/Scunthorpe last night.

Viewed from the North East of Donny, all from the local Facebook group.
 

 

Edited September 10, 2023 by robt

[P-M]

10 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Will need to monitor how things progress in the coming hours, a fair amount of cloud moving northwards at the moment, this mornings system has been rather poorly modelled by both the UKV & AROME. 

Very complex forecasting day today. If all goes to plan, there is the potential for some very active thunderstorms, likely large hail (2-4CM) associated with supercell thunderstorms and the risk of locally severe wind gusts (60-70MPH). Most favoured region appears to be N/NW England will initiation likely across the Midlands somewhere with storms tracking NNE from that point. 

The increased cloud cover however may serve to limit maximum potential being reached, but we'll see. Tricky, exciting. Goodluck to all those chasing! Potentially the most active day of the year *IF* all goes to plan.

Weird enough the 2012 thunder Thursday event that flooded the northeast from a supercell started in the Preston area then traveled NNE to our region. Similar set up today so who knows although that event really did cause some serious destruction in these parts. 

[Chris K]

11 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Is this cloud going to scupper our chances?

Well it's been grey and muggy here all morning with barely any sunshine, but we have something developing over us now. I'd be surprised if the higher risk zones later this afternoon miss out.

[DIS1970]

Looking like that storm threat has blown a fuse here, just a few light showers now, too much cloud.

Edited September 10, 2023 by DIS1970

[Scuba steve]

Sky over the Irish Sea looks very stormy,very  dark with low base can’t hear any thunder even though it’s gone very quiet 

[Gnasher]

I don’t think I’m going to get any storms. A 30% chance of rain only. Very disappointing (◞‸◟；)

[Chris.R]

It's just kicked off in Liverpool bay. Lightning every 5-10 seconds I can hear on radio. Spreading Southword. This must be that trough.

[Arnie Pie]

Hoping  that  the cells near Brizzel take a trip up the M5, where blue skies and slight instability awaits

[robt]

Just now, Chris.R said:

It's just kicked off in Liverpool bay. Lightning every 5-10 seconds I can hear on radio. Spreading Southword. This must be that trough.

Looks like a couple. One in Liverpool Bay, and another off Barrow

[TropicThunder]

Wow was expecting another nice hot sunny day here, instead have grey skies and non thundery rain albeit still warm and muggy. Spectacular fail on the forecast.,