Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[WeatherArc]

1 minute ago, Southern Storm said:

The more I look at the two areas of activity in the channel the less worried I'm becoming, as others have said, they don't appear to be eating up too much fuel, and I believe the higher CAPE levels will arrive later onto the evening 

All to play for if you ask me

The UKV would agree with you 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

13 minutes ago, Azazel said:

The ‘intense’ stuff is barely gaining any forward momentum. Keeps fizzling out on its northern edge

Edit - infact the stuff down in the Channel Islands is also now fizzling out lol.

very cool! 

Blooooody typical !!!

[Cyclonic Destruction]

3 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

The UKV would agree with you 

Wt@ It’s all imploded! Lol 

[Metwatch]

Going a bit crazy in France in the coming hours as well, so hopefully we get a taste of that tonight too.

[Southern Storm]

6 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

The UKV would agree with you 

Ooh la la, I think it's time to start scouting some locations with decent views, It all comes down to this evening to salvage 2023, we need to make this count

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by Southern Storm

[Had Worse]

Should get interesting later

[ChannelThunder]

17 minutes ago, Sam jackson88 said:

Still going strong let's hope it gets even stronger

...or does the complete opposite and die off, which it's doing right now! 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, ChannelThunder said:

...or does the complete opposite and die off, which it's doing right now! 

 

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Herm Island looking west towards Guernsey,live is on cam 5...

Webcams - Herm Island

WWW.HERM.COM

---

THERE IS MORE TO HERM THAN MEETS THE EYE... THERE IS MORE TO HERM THAN MEETS THE EYE... THERE IS MORE TO HERM THAN MEETS THE EYE... THERE IS MORE TO HERM TH ...

 

Been here - loved it. There’s also Sark which has no cars on it. Best view of the night sky I’ve seen

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, ChannelThunder said:

...or does the complete opposite and die off, which it's doing right now! 

Funny how storms die when they cross the channel, but when they leave the east coast and hit the north sea they explode into life!

 

[Cyclonic Destruction]

1 minute ago, ChannelThunder said:

...or does the complete opposite and die off, which it's doing right now! 

I’m going to the beach to go fishing. Clearly this is a non event! Worst weekend of bigging it up and a complete let down. Sun is shining. Models haven’t a f’n clue and quite frankly I’m fed up with the drama and going to ring the Doc in the morning for a prescription of sertraline to ease the pain lol. I reckon all the expectations on here produce so much negative energy it kills these storms lol

[ChannelThunder]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

Funny how storms die when they cross the channel, but when they leave the east coast and hit the north sea they explode into life!

 

It's been something of a mystery ever since I started following stormy weather! Don't tell the tinfoil hat brigade - they'll use it as evidence that the North Sea is home to some kind of HAARP machine or something...

[Southern Storm]

1 minute ago, ChannelThunder said:

It's been something of a mystery ever since I started following stormy weather! Don't tell the tinfoil hat brigade - they'll use it as evidence that the North Sea is home to some kind of HAARP machine or something...

Don't be silly, it 5G  

Edit, just to be clear I'm not calling you a clown

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by Southern Storm

[Azazel]

That cell south west of Caen could be the stuff that moves up to affect the south east later. Looks quite pokey on radar 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Yay more French crud/clag!! Just what we needed!!!! Because we don't have enough of our own clag!

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

That cell south west of Caen could be the stuff that moves up to affect the south east later. Looks quite pokey on radar 

Thats why I posted the 2 webcams on the coast just above Caen. Could be quite a spectacle.

[Zak M]

Looks like there's been a tornado from those storms approaching Normandy

 

[SouthwestChaser]

Probably clutching straws but, any chance those Brittany cells will reach us? It's been RUBBISH so far. I NEED A GOOD STORM. 

[wimblettben]

Just now, SouthwestChaser said:

Probably clutching straws but, any chance those Brittany cells will reach us? It's been RUBBISH so far. I NEED A GOOD STORM. 

Way too far I would have thought.

[Cyclonic Destruction]

1 minute ago, SouthwestChaser said:

Probably clutching straws but, any chance those Brittany cells will reach us? It's been RUBBISH so far. I NEED A GOOD STORM. 

My missus would have kicked me out this weekend if I’d performed this badly!

[Southern Storm]

3 minutes ago, SouthwestChaser said:

Probably clutching straws but, any chance those Brittany cells will reach us? It's been RUBBISH so far. I NEED A GOOD STORM. 

Certainly better than it being out in the North sea, one to keep an eye on

Edited September 17, 2023 by Southern Storm

[ChannelThunder]

47 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Game over west of the IOW. 

Things have gone down the pan so much in the 47 mins since you posted that, that I'm back to thinking it's game over west of Eagle Eye's house...

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Just now, ChannelThunder said:

Things have gone down the pan so much in the 47 mins since you posted that, that I'm back to thinking it's game over west of Eagle Eye's house...

I agree it is. Does anyone know why the channel always kills them?

[wimblettben]

The only slight hope I have right now is that some of the latest Cape charts give us a decent amount of the stuff for a time around 9:00PM or midnight so although still not to the levels the southeast is expected to get later its still better then having zero.

[ChannelThunder]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I agree it is. Does anyone know why the channel always kills them?

If they're surface-based, the channel's always going to kill them as they've not got enough warmth to pump energy into them, although the warm seas from Sept-Dec can help sustain them longer than during the rest of the year. If they're elevated (which I suspect these were) then it'll just be case that they ran out of steam in this instance and would've died regardless of whether there was land or sea below. It's worth remembering that thunderstorms are short-lived by their very nature in the vast majority of cases. 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

From all the forecasts I saw you were never really in with much of a shout. Perhaps this morning but that was fairly contentious.

 

we were in this boat last week, now 7 days later we are on the zone … it totally can happen keep faith!

Checkout the mod thread, someone's put a short term for the week till Thursday forecast, fully explains what is going on today. It's on the last page, although will probably also end up in the other model thread soon.