Major Hurricane Lee

[matty40s]

Obviously, it's still a TD,(ok, now a storm..just changed) but for the NOAA to go ahead and declare it as a minimum Cat4 in 5 days (which has never happened before this far out), it's a done deal.

Harder to fathom is the track, and whether it will affect land catastrophically.

The Leewards are already on a warning, and I suspect Bermuda is looking at this very closely.

 

[matty40s]

 

[damianslaw]

Thoughts on how any ex tropical system might shake the atlantic out of current slumber.

[alexisj9]

17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Thoughts on how any ex tropical system might shake the atlantic out of current slumber.

By heading north rather than towards Portugal might do it. 

[Wold Topper]

1 hour ago, matty40s said:

 

Thanks @matty40s and others for your updates, much appreciated, like buses this year!

[matty40s]

45 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Thoughts on how any ex tropical system might shake the atlantic out of current slumber.

Ex-Franklin is currently joining the low pressure anchored to Iberia so may prolong that side of the Omega block, along with adding rainfall in daft amounts to Portugal.

[WeatherArc]

Current IR view of Lee, convection has become much deeper the past few hours with cloud tops in the outer bands shooting up to around -80 degrees.

Lee has rapidly strengthened over the past few hours, expected to be a hurricane by 2 am thurs and a major hurricane by Saturday. Cat 4/5 very much possible if not expected. Atmosphere is incredibly  favorable for him to strengthen. 

Track is still very uncertain, Lee could very well be steered north by a trough over the US and have no major impacts, however the ridge to the north is concerning me. 

This is something we really dont want to see, stronger ridge=a greater westward push. 

Bermuda and US East coast need to watch Lee very closely.  

Edited September 6, 2023 by WeatherArc

[Fiona Robertson]

Keeping a close eye on Lee. Someone mentioned it was eerily similar to Irma so that's a concern.

Second point, which is really a question, and apologies if this has been addressed elsewhere. I'm having real trouble with Cesium Tropical Atlantic. I had noticed that the images during Idalia were really slow and sometimes were a patchwork, with parts of the image being old ones. It was occasionally very misleading when it came to the position of the hurricane, like sometimes hours out of date, even when I refreshed the whole thing. Since Idalia, I can only connect using VPN via a US server and the satellite images that do come up cover only the Atlantic basin.

[matty40s]

 

[stodge]

From what little I understand, the key is the trough over the eastern part of the US.

I'm not quite sure how it would interact with Lee but presumably if it is ejected east, Lee would be caught up in the circulation and recurve further out to sea.

A slightly more westerly track might spare the continental US but presuambly places like Nova Scotia and Newfoundland might see a landfall and I would imagine Lee would still be a powerful system.

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by stodge

[matty40s]

 

[Thunder Snow]

That was quick

[Fiona Robertson]

Anyone noticed what's tagging along in the wake of Hurricane Lee?

 

[Thunder Snow]

Lee continues to strengthen and tropical depression 14 forms

[cowdog]

Latest advisory from the NHC has it expected to get to 140 knots wind speed in 2 days, which is just inside the Category 5 limit. Also, the updated cone isn't showing any eastwards motion now, still not really near any land, but it's getting closer and closer.

[Thunder Snow]

Is it forecast to be a fish still l, or is it still dependent on the front coming out of America 

[cowdog]

2 hours ago, Thunder Snow said:

Is it forecast to be a fish still l, or is it still dependent on the front coming out of America 

It is still a fish, but the NHC now thinks it won't turn, at least for the next 5 days; if they are right it's going to get close to the west Indies and could be a very massive storm by then, so even if it does turn could well cause issues due to tidal swells etc.

[AderynCoch]

Category 4 already. We're not looking at a repeat of Irma but Bermuda or the US East Coast could be in trouble.

[Thunder Snow]

Wow a cat 4 already that happened extremely quickly 

[Fiona Robertson]

I see the wee tag-along behind Hurricane Lee that I screenshotted this morning is now tropical storm Margot.

[Fiona Robertson]

Just grabbed this IR image of Lee, the eye is stunning.

Edited September 7, 2023 by Fiona Robertson

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[alexisj9]

11 hours ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Anyone noticed what's tagging along in the wake of Hurricane Lee?

 

I think that stuff to her east will be Margaret, do youean that bit just below her, does look like something else building, doesn't it.

[alexisj9]

13 minutes ago, matty40s said:

 

They actually look connected, like Margaret is building on Lee's outflow.