Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Following the trigger low moving SE into near continent on Monday, EC brings another low SE from Iceland mid-week which interferes with cold air advection from the E / NE. But, EC has been behind the curve with these lows, so don't feel too despondent yet.

GFS has always been strong in that N/NW (SW Greenland and Iceland sector) in picking shortwave activity for some reason, not sure if it is a data thing for the Euros but UKMO comes good there once inside T96.

Odd idiosyncrasies each model has that we pick up on over the years of trawling thousands and thousands of charts.

[The Enforcer]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Thanks , deleted , apologies all. Here is the correct charts 192 .

Still in the mild sector on Thursday.

[Ice Day]

Now that is a great chart at 216

 

Outside of the reliable now, but the setup is coming way earlier!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Come on...who expected to be seeing this from the ECM after the output it was showing the Weekend? Who expected to even be seeing this after reading recent Exeter updates? At the moment this is a dream but I'm sure many of you don't wanna be waking up just yet.

We all brought a lottery ticket earlier this month and it now seems that our odds have gone from millions to 1 to better than evens. 

Let the Dream become a reality my beauties.

I need a ly down me head is spinning like the PV

Edited November 22, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Now that is a great chart at 216

 

Outside of the reliable now, but the setup is coming way earlier!

 

Do you think the run was good before this?

[Nick F]

2 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

UKMO and ECM very similar to each other at 168 so perhaps they are sensing something. 

True, need that ridge to build in stronger to the N and NW following the trigger low sinking SE, to prevent more lows dropping SE to maintain the cold NE flow.

[nick sussex]

12 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

I think that your flight will be delayed for deicing!

A month down the line it could have been cold enough for snow on the northern flank of the low. A bit too early now although I wouldn’t rule some snow on higher ground inland .

We do need the low to remain shallow and not deepen too much . It’s easier to clear it away from the se if that’s the case .

[That ECM]

T120 all 3. There’s some later output which is very good viewing. Let’s get to T120 and then see. 
 

Been an awesome catch up and day. T120 is still away to go in weather terms.

[carinthian]

On 20/11/2023 at 09:20, carinthian said:

Morning all. Ok things start to get a bit complicated early next week but nevertheless very interesting. So for the time being I have been sticking with UKMO outputs. Their  model continues to show some kind of low development to the south of Greenland in its medium term charts. It looks like a short wave will move into the embedded cold by that time across The British Isles. Whether the cold remains in force or is diluted by Atlantic air remains very much in doubt at this stage. Looking at all 3 big models ,  a colder spell is likely to prevails  for the most part in various forms  out for the next 7 to 10 days from early Friday onwards , not just for the British Isles but generally across much of Europe.  Firstly, lets get that waving cold front through and cold in place across The British Isles by the end of the working week. There will be enough push looking at the charts below to get into the Alps over the weekend to produce some nice snowfall and much lower temps for the resort opening . Sure will be a interesting weeks model viewing. Hope it dries out for you guys . The waterlogged fields may soon turn into an icy landscape across Blighty by Sunday morning !

Evening , just a follow up from my post on Monday ( above ). Certainly been interesting model viewing so far this week. Wonder where it will all evolve in to. Colder scenario now looking  fairly certain, but the fine details not nailed as we can clearly see by this evenings runs. The first results of our outer parameter snow charts do show some snow possibly for Northern Ireland and Northwest England /North Wales early next week. Read what you want to in that ! Howerver, model percentage expectancy is low that far out .

 C

Edited November 22, 2023 by carinthian

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Do you think the run was good before this?

Not bad, but I'm hoping it was the starter before the main course..... and right on cue!

[Snowman.]

No point over analysing OP runs in regards to uppers etc. when there is a whole load of water to flow under the bridge. Just be happy things are going in the correct direction. 

[Tim Bland]

Plenty of opportunities for snow on that ECM run!

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Come on...who expected to be seeing this from the ECM after the output it was showing the Weekend? Who expected to even be seeing this after reading recent Exeter updates? At the moment this is a dream but I'm sure many of you don't wanna be waking up just yet.

We all brought a lottery ticket earlier this month and it now seems that our odds have gone from millions to 1 to better than evens. 

Let the Dream become a reality my beauties.

Well, Matt, it's hardly been the first time since 2013, that we've been 'promised' a bucketload of snow, has it? It may well happen. . . But until I see snow falling past my window, I will remain a tad sceptical. 

[Mucka]

As far as I can figure, the only way the shortwave low around Iceland 144/168 would be a spoiler is if it blew up to the W or N of the UK. That would be rotten luck but the UKMO does sniff at that option. Otherwise it would just be a temporary cut off a cold feed.

Other than being a spoiler though it might actually help sharpen up the Atlantic ridge behind and blocking into Greenland and if it travelled E of the UK it could bring widespread snow and sharpen an Easterly feed.

It would be safer for it to be phased out early as with GFS 144

But I can definitely see how it could be as much a help as a hindrance if it does develop more in line with ECM.

Definitely something to watch for in the overall pattern as it develops post 144, (foolishly assuming we now have out 120 nailed )

[minus10]

Waaaa...what a ride...and jff look at the rather displaced and dissected vortex at the end of the gfs/ ecm runs...

[IanT]

2 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Well, Matt, it's hardly been the first time since 2013, that we've been 'promised' a bucketload of snow, has it? It may well happen. . . But until I see snow falling past my window, I will remain a tad sceptical. 

No-one has been promised anything.

[Tim Bland]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A month down the line it could have been cold enough for snow on the northern flank of the low. A bit too early now although I wouldn’t rule some snow on higher ground inland .

We do need the low to remain shallow and not deepen too much . It’s easier to clear it away from the se if that’s the case .

Definitely chances for high ground on Monday but with evap cooling and an upgrade in uppers there could be some surprises!

[January Snowstorm]

I think the main issue this evening is the uppers have modified slightly higher. Enough to mean rain/sleet rather than snow. Perhaps the high sea temperatures are a factor! Plenty time for upgrades, we need a cleaner feed and less messy shortwaves

[northwestsnow]

The day 10 on wz is incredible

[Howie]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

I think the main issue this evening is the uppers have modified slightly higher. Enough to mean rain/sleet rather than snow. Perhaps the high sea temperatures are a factor! Plenty time for upgrades, we need a cleaner feed and less messy shortwaves

There always seems to be some stupid shortwave messing things up for us ugh

[swfc]

Do you guys work or have family looks ok  for a cold snap without being anything sustained after 8 days

[terrier]

£10 quid says this all shifts south and goes down into Greece as per usual. Only joking what a cracking set of output tonight. Surely they is some head scratching going on now at the met office. Bet Fridays update reads differently if this output continues.

[daveinSB]

1 minute ago, Howie said:

There always seems to be some stupid shortwave messing things up for us ugh

The shortwave that has 'spolied' Monday is the exact reason the models look so good from Tuesday onwards.

Monday has never looked cold.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

The day 10 on wz is incredible

Why mate 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Things are starting too look quite special at 120-144 on the runs now,and it's setting the tone for after,it's nice to see rather then chasing day 10 charts all the time! UKMO ECM and ICON especially all look great!