Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Kentspur]

GEM better for more areas of the country just look at that!!

Edited November 23, 2023 by Kentspur

[Kentspur]

30 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Nice little snow event for central areas in just over a week’s time on the GFS 0z.

Ooh looks lovely when I'm on break number 2 at Elveden forest having been under a Baltic beast for several days All this overtime I'm working will be worth it barely had a day off work this month lol

Edited November 23, 2023 by Kentspur

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

GEM better for more areas of the country just look at that!!

Seems unlikely with +4 860 temps for much of the S though

GFS snow chart not bad either away from far S Not that these mean anything right now.

[MattStoke]

That’ll be an interesting feature to watch but a ball ache to model should it even develop at all.

[Kentspur]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Seems unlikely with +4 860 temps for much of the S though

GFS snow chart not bad either away from far S Not that these mean anything right now.

A little patch of blue brushing NW Kent there. GEM is notoriously poor at forecasting upper air temps at range remember when it always used to forecast 40c days before we'd ever seen that. 

 

Early days atm and I'll be in the pine forests of East Anglia first few days of December so that will do on either model just nice to see these wintry scenarios being churned out!

Edited November 23, 2023 by Kentspur

[Ali1977]

UKMO at 168 looking mighty fine , poss big snow event then cold reload 

Just now, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 168 looking mighty fine , poss big snow event then cold reload 

Maybe some less cold air in the mix though, complicated looking!! 

[Kentspur]

24 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Seems unlikely with +4 860 temps for much of the S though

GFS snow chart not bad either away from far S Not that these mean anything right now.

Seems like GFS op was at the milder end of its ensembles down south in early December

[Kentspur]

Wheres my new fave Norse member Dennis? These look lovely and seasonal for my visit, ensembles seem to be increasing run by run those snow spikes! As it goes my Ancestry DNA test gave my mum and me quite high scandinavian hence my profile pic

Edited November 23, 2023 by Kentspur

[TillyS]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 168 looking mighty fine , poss big snow event then cold reload 

 

 

 

The UKMO doesn’t show a cold reload?

Amazing difference between GFS and UKMO next week.

GFS 0z has a cold reload (the 18z didn’t really go for this) whilst the UKMO has a huge Atlantic storm. Some initial boundary edge snow for the northern hills, quickly turning to rain.

 

This is all-but non-existent on the GFS. 

You bet against the UK Met Office at your peril, particularly at this kind of day 5/6 range.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, TillyS said:

 

The UKMO doesn’t show a cold reload?

It really does, as that low clears it’ll be back edge snow and a reload of strong easterlies  . Tan between 144 and 168 and you can clearly see where it’s heading. Hoping for a stunning ECM 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Ali1977

[Howie]

I don't like this shortwave mess ughhhh

[TillyS]

Got to say that I’m a lot less confident of any sustained cold after the overnight runs. The GFS ensembles are very scattered and I don’t like it that the UKMO isn’t on board. There’s nothing particularly unusual about this set up apart from stormyness, and there is no cold reload on it. Good news for the Scottish ski industry though, once the winds die back:

Let’s see what the ECMWF shows. 

Edited November 23, 2023 by TillyS

[Ali1977]

Just now, TillyS said:

Got to say that I’m a lot less confident of any sustained cold after the overnight runs. The GFS ensembles are very scattered and I don’t like it that the UKMO isn’t on board. There’s nothing particularly unusual about this set up apart from stormyness. Good news for the Scottish ski industry though, once the winds die back:

Let’s see what the ECMWF shows. 

That is very unusual for late November, and the GFS mean at day 9 is epic. Not sure what you’re looking for 

[Nick2373]

 

18z Shows a cold spell from the 30th to 05th of December then a suggestion of something warmer with ppn spikes picking up to.

[TillyS]

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

. Tan between 144 and 168 and you can clearly see where it’s heading.

 

This is cherry picking. The UKMO storm brings in milder air and you can’t second guess what it might then show on charts that it doesn’t produce out at Day 9, 15, or 25 … aka “it would be great after this”. Erm.  

A lot of milder air in the mix:

It’s a messy set up and the UKMO really is not on board with sustained cold next week. Heavy rain and strong winds for most. That’s a great disappointment.

The fact that the 18z GFS didn’t go for sustained cold either, and that there’s a lot of ensemble scatter means a lot of caution is needed here. I don’t like the fact that the UKMO isn’t on board.

A potent winter storm from the UKMO run is the real take home from this.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that the Met Office look to have been right about the return of milder air Sunday onwards, which raised eyebrows from some on here. After this weekend’s cold snap, conditions don’t support sustained cold for the early part of next week. Chillier than of late, yes. Very cold? No.

Edited November 23, 2023 by TillyS

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, TillyS said:

 

Cherry picking?? It’s the UKMO not a ens member and it would be great beyond this!! 
And the GEFS mean towards day 10 is epic, beyond that will always get messy as a mean 
Over to the ECM!!

 

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Ali1977

[daveinSB]

Just now, Nick2373 said:

 

18z Shows a cold spell from the 30th to 05th of December then a suggestion of something warmer with ppn spikes picking up to.

Things generally seem to be firming up on a 4-5 day cold spell now, with the odd chance of some snow, not too bad at all considering it's late November.

People would get a lot less upset (just pre-empting this AMs reactions...) if they weren't constantly chasing 16 day long narnia spells - the likelihood of that happening on an island in our particular global locale in late autumn/early winter is very low indeed.

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cherry picking?? It’s the UKMO not a ens member and it would be great beyond this!! 
And the GEFS mean towards day 10 is epic, beyond that will always get messy as a mean 
Over to the ECM!!

 

 

While im at it I’ll add the GEM day 10, it’s a belter of a run

Edited November 23, 2023 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

The gfs mean is really great..it just looks very cold out till 240h

35 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 168 looking mighty fine , poss big snow event then cold reload 

Maybe some less cold air in the mix though, complicated looking!! 

That would surely be all rain..a few days later it would get colder and snow chance increases

[Dennis]

goodmorning

very soon are these temps to the past in west Europe, 

[Lukesluckybunch]

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cherry picking?? It’s the UKMO not a ens member and it would be great beyond this!! 
And the GEFS mean towards day 10 is epic, beyond that will always get messy as a mean 
Over to the ECM!!

 

 

I'm hoping that ukmo 168 chart,is ok..it looks like it could be a bit west based..and the main lobe over Scandinavia seems to be moving northwest putting pressure on the heights trying to build in the atlantic..one that needs watching

Edited November 23, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Dennis]

Fokus on monday for the snow

 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I'm hoping that ukmo 168 chart,is ok..it looks like it could be a bit west based

Lows dropping south, it would open up a great long fetched easterly , no where near being west based !! 

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Fokus on monday for the snow

 

Lots of cold rain there, heights too high with a stiff wind off the north sea & lacking of any surface cold.

[DIS1970]

If THIS were to happen NE Wales would be snowed under but 8/9 days is too far to predict.