Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Where sheikhy +?? 

Whole of the midlands wales east anglia and south west england!!!!it mahooosive!!!more changes to come though!!

[That ECM]

Big sausage that.

[nick sussex]

The problem is keeping the cold as these lows blow up and you have a shortwave love-in is going to be difficult .

The wrong phasing point can turn sledges into canoes .

One gets the feeling the models have managed to take a load of good ingredients and delivered a bit of a meh meal .

The good news is the series of phase calamities is still a way out and there’s time for changes .

I should say please avoid the ECM snow charts at this range if you don’t want to become an emotional mess !

[ANYWEATHER]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

no deep cold and deep snow,

A bit early to say that given the synoptics and time of year

[TSNWK]

So I guess today the models have ditched the cold draw and clean easterly and brought in the high risk and reward option….

if they do stick with Atlantic influences and energy to our west then let’s hope they don’t trend any further north… 

don’t think it’s been a good day frankly if you’re looking for longevity and more than transitioning snow to rain events for the vast bulk of us.

past 2 gfs ops with more ensemble’s on the 12z then 06z and this ecm are steps backwards today…

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Whole of the midlands wales east anglia and south west england!!!!it mahooosive!!!more changes to come though!!

850s and north sea dont really look conjusive for snow tbh. Slack flow etc 

Edited November 23, 2023 by swfc

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, swfc said:

850s and north sea dont really lool conjusive for snow tbh

dosen't matter off frontal?

[swfc]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

dosen't matter off frontal?

Ok then

[northwestsnow]

Well EC produces a snow event but I'd actually prefer ukmo at 168..!!

[Met4Cast]

Historically these systems trend south.. It's going to be a few days of chopping and changing before this is anywhere close to resolved, given the last shortwave took until T72 we're looking until at least Monday or Tuesday before we can be confident models have this nailed. 

Until then.. take little notice of extended range output.

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well EC produces a snow event but I'd actually prefer ukmo at 168..!!

You think with them 850s mate

[swfc]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

You think with them 850s mate

Big ask of north sea and slack winds

[joggs]

45 minutes ago, Premiere Neige said:

Not necessarily. It's an average over 3 months. Doesn't mean the high will be sat exactly as seen on the chart for 3 months. 

Sorry. Should've explained better. Yes I know that, but the deeper more intense reds are in between greeny and Canada as an average.

Edited November 23, 2023 by joggs

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This is what at times vexxes me on this thread,some are looking for disappointment and setting the bar far too high!

23rd of November with a very enthralling period ahead which as come about through no background forcing at all. Yet we are currently seeing Heights towards the NW and also further NE which also acts to weaken the strat further.

Surely at such an early starting point there could be far worser places to be in.

Edited November 23, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Historically these systems trend south.. It's going to be a few days of chopping and changing before this is anywhere close to resolved, given the last shortwave took until T72 we're looking until at least Monday or Tuesday before we can be confident models have this nailed. 

Until then.. take little notice of extended range output.

If the low pressures were more traditional riding the jet from the west / Canada I would  agree on trending south… what is currently progged are low pressures spawned in our neck of the woods from cold air spilling westwards from Europe.. with no firm jet to drive them.. I do think the energy will be created as progged but where the pieces sit when the music stops is impossible presently in absence of a traditional jet.

[northwestsnow]

Its just dawned on me..

We are going to be counting down this shortwave drama from now until T 144!!

I'll say Mr Christmas to the missus now then..

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

If the low pressures were more traditional riding the jet from the west / Canada I would  agree on trending south… what is currently progged are low pressures spawned in our neck of the woods from cold air spilling westwards from Europe.. with no firm jet to drive them.. I do think the energy will be created as progged but where the pieces sit when the music stops is impossible presently in absence of a traditional jet.

Models tend to underestimate the forcing from the block in undercut scenarios like this, the vast majority of the time the low coming in from the west ends up further south, even at short lead times. W

[swfc]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

This is what at times vexxes me on this thread,some are looking for disappointment and setting the bar far too high!

23rd of November with a very enthralling period ahead which as come about through no background forcing at all. Yet we are currently seeing Heightts towards the NW and also further NE which also acts to weaken the strat further.

Surely at such an early starting point there could be far worser places to be in.

Yes your correct. It's great heading into december but snowfall etc

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Models tend to underestimate the forcing from the block in undercut scenarios like this, the vast majority of the time the low coming in from the west ends up further south, even at short lead times. W

Also, the lows tend to be less rounded and more sharp as they meet the block.

[nick sussex]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Models tend to underestimate the forcing from the block in undercut scenarios like this, the vast majority of the time the low coming in from the west ends up further south, even at short lead times. W

Yes but here it’s not the sw low that’s the issue . That alone would of course normally be corrected south . It’s the phasing with that which blows it up and the track into the UK is too much ne and not enough east .

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM keen tonight to bring Atlantic back into the equation with the lows tracking over the UK before heading north to settle over Scotland and fill that event is gratefully a good deal to far out for the charts to be sure of the tracking and positioning either from ECM or GFS.Meanwhile cold is the theme with frost and snow in places not bad for the end of November.

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Historically these systems trend south.. It's going to be a few days of chopping and changing before this is anywhere close to resolved, given the last shortwave took until T72 we're looking until at least Monday or Tuesday before we can be confident models have this nailed. 

Until then.. take little notice of extended range output.

They do - so the AI models should do better on this upcoming scenario 

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

They do - so the AI models should do better on this upcoming scenario 

Is there excess to the AI model yet?

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes but here it’s not the sw low that’s the issue . That alone would of course normally be corrected south . It’s the phasing with that which blows it up and the track into the UK is too much ne and not enough east .

Which wouldn't be the case if the SW low was further south.. 

ECM is very close to being south enough

[Bricriu]

With the low ending up in Scotland and then filling that surely means most places will end up milder for a time at least. Why can't it fill a 100 miles off the South Coast of Ireland. As someone said if there is a way to kill an Easterly  the models  will find it