Months that deserved records but didn't achieve them

[CryoraptorA303]

Months that you think were exceptional and/or notable enough to deserve a record, but ultimately didn't achieve one. I'm going to mostly focus on hot records, but you can list cold records if you want.

Here's my list as an example:

March - 2012: Had a consecutive week of >20C somewhere in the country, definitely deserved to be the warmest on record or surpass Mepal's 25.6C from 1965.

April - 2011: Was the hottest on record, above 24-25C for several days, 100% deserved to have the first 30C April day on record or at least break 28 which was the probable record then from 1949 (29.4C at Camden was not backed up by other London stations which largely peaked at high 27). April 2018 with 29.1C really didn't deserve to have the hottest (reliable) April day on record, it was an otherwise cool April and March before it had been very wet, whereas March and April 2011 had both been very dry. 2020 as a runner up with how warm and dry it was.

May - 2008, 2012 - Both years had an extended hot spell which to my knowledge had not been seen before in the month of May aside from the very end of May 1947. The May 2012 heatwave was very unusual in being focused in Scotland. Had the epicentre been in England we would've almost certainly seen >32.8C. 2008 was also highly impressive and I could've sworn it got to 32C on the hottest day (I remember going on a school trip to Cambridge and it felt much hotter than the 26C it was). 2005 and 2010 as runners up for the 31.4C at Herne Bay and the similarly impressive heatwave respectively, however 2005 didn't quite deserve to go above 32.8 imo and 2010 simply didn't have the global temps to justify it.

June & July - 2018 definitely deserved to blow 1976's 35.5C (the 35.6C figure from the following day is completely unreliable) to pieces. The summer of 2018 in general was shafted out of several records. June 2018 was just shafted out of being the driest on record and while July 2018 got the joint-hottest month ever recorded with July 06, the desperately dry first three weeks were totally shafted out of entering the record books and were ruined in the last week. Had everything been delayed by a week then July 2018 would've been the driest month ever recorded in the UK, or at least the driest summer month. 2018 also deserved to get a top 10 hottest day, certainly higher than Faversham's 35.3C. Using 76 as an analogue then it should've achieved around 36.6C, or the fourth hottest day on record at the time.

Late July & August - 2020 was shafted out of a lot as well. The August 2020 heatwave is one of, if not the most exceptional heatwave to ever be recorded in the UK. Following on from a very dry spring this heatwave deserved to break the record. 2019 really didn't deserve to break 2003's record at all. I would swap July 2019 and July 2020, so 25th July 2019 is 37.8C and 31st July 2020 is 38.7C. I would go as far to suggest that August 2020 deserved to be our first 40C on record.

September - Obviously I'm going to nominate 2023 as deserving of finally beating the contentious 35.6C record from 1906. It at least deserved to go above 34.6C, the highest unambiguous September record from 1911. That heatwave was something else. Had it happened in 2022 after the very dry first 8 months, I'm sure it would've been almost a given to reach >34.6C. 2016 as runner up for achieving the second-hottest unambiguous September day at 34.4C in Gravesend (RIP).

October - 2011 just barely avoided having the first 30C October day on record. 29.9C is such a cruel record.

December - 2015 with how ridiculously mild it was surely deserved an all-time record. Maybe even the (at the time) first winter 20C in recorded history.

Those are all mine. Comment yours.

[Summer8906]

Often it's easier to think of the opposite, records that were made but undeserved.

For example I thought that the all-time record, as was, of July 2019 was thoroughly undeserved; if you're going to get an all-time record then it should occur during a protracted hot spell rather than a brief heat spike in a generally changeable period.

I'm glad to be honest December 2015 didn't break any winter records. A warm and sunny spell in February is arguably more deserving of breaking the record than a very dull and damp spell such as that of December 2015. (FWIW I don't think we'll beat 20C anytime soon in December - too little insolation and mild airmasses are invariably very damp, which knocks the temps on the head a bit. I don't think we've even had a 20C in the second half of November? However I think we will exceed 20C in Feb again before too long).

I'm also glad September 2023 didn't break any records to be honest: again I'd prefer the Sep record to be broken in a September which is notably warm and sunny all the way through.

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by Summer8906

[cheeky_monkey]

50 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I'm glad to be honest December 2015 didn't break any winter records

did it not? thought it was the warmest Dec on record and the warmest winter month on record?

[LetItSnow!]

56 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I'm glad to be honest December 2015 didn't break any winter records.

 

Warmest December ever, warmest winter month ever, recorded the highest daily mean in the December record, recorded highest amount of rainfall in a 24hr period - it was the defintion of breaking records!

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Warmest December ever, warmest winter month ever, recorded the highest daily mean in the December record, recorded highest amount of rainfall in a 24hr period - it was the defintion of breaking records!

Sorry, records as in highest ever max temp in a winter month. A sunny spell in Feb is far more worthy of that, arguably.

[CryoraptorA303]

4 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

did it not? thought it was the warmest Dec on record and the warmest winter month on record?

Not only that, it was also warmer than all Marches and most Novembers. It would quite literally be the equivalent of having an August that was colder than all Mays and most Septembers. Perhaps most notably it had a higher mean minimum than June 2015(!), making it, in terms of mean minima, the third warmest month of 2015.

It most definitely deserved to achieve all the records it did.

5 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

I'm also glad September 2023 didn't break any records to be honest: again I'd prefer the Sep record to be broken in a September which is notably warm and sunny all the way through.

It was here in Kent. We had a total of something like four or five overcast days in the entire month, and precip also stayed low all month. The Kent coast finished at about 25% average precip. That's up there with July 2022. Although I'd agree it has no place being in 2023; if anything it should've been in 2022, and would be a great (read: horrendous) follow-up to the torrid summer before it.

5 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

For example I thought that the all-time record, as was, of July 2019 was thoroughly undeserved; if you're going to get an all-time record then it should occur during a protracted hot spell rather than a brief heat spike in a generally changeable period.

I can't express how much I hate the 2019 all-time record. Had I been a senior official at the Met Office, considering it was the only station to break it, I would've been tempted to ignore Cambridge Botanical's 38.7C and go with Faversham's 38.4C as the hottest temp of the day, as to preserve the 2003 record. The Met Office still accepts obviously bull records from however many years ago that any reasonable meteorological authority would've disregarded, ignoring the temp reading of one station (and making up some excuse about it failing verification, e.g. Cambridge NIAB got 38.1C, even though this would be an acceptable margin) to preserve the record of an extreme summer would be the least of their crimes.

4 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Sorry, records as in highest ever max temp in a winter month. A sunny spell in Feb is far more worthy of that, arguably.

Oh 100%. February 2019 totally deserves its record, unlike the record five months later. The question is how long its record will remain intact...

[Thundery wintry showers]

For me the 2003 and 2019 records are now pretty much moot because 2022 slaughtered them. 

I can't think of any record breaking months that I get this feeling with, but I can remember a couple of near approaches. I remember in late August 1997 hoping for a few cool days near the end because I didn't think it deserved to beat August 1995 for the title of "hottest August on record". I also remember hoping for May 2008 to not beat May 1992. In both cases I got the outcome that I wanted, but only just.

I didn't find December 2015 remotely enjoyable but it certainly felt worthy of the title of "warmest December on record" to me. It was a similar story with the record warm November of 1994.

I remember there being an element of this around February 1998, because it was easily the warmest February on record in the regions that were frequently grey and drizzly, while in the regions that had a lot of warm and sunny weather by day and highs of 18-19C around the 13th, it generally wasn't as warm as February 1990 because the clear skies resulted in relatively low overnight minima. And yes, February 2019 certainly felt worthy of its 21C record to me - that was a remarkable spell of weather.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Thundery wintry showers

[cheeky_monkey]

56 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

 

It was a similar story with the record warm November of 1994.

 

 

 

Feel cheated that Nov 1994 has been downgraded from the only above Nov 10c at 10.1 to now at 9.9c ...why ???????????

[CryoraptorA303]

58 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

For me the 2003 and 2019 records are now pretty much moot because 2022 slaughtered them.

IMO they are still important milestones; they still hold the third and second hottest days ever recorded after all, for now anyway (I'm sure a few summers between now and the 2030s will have something to say about them). August 2003 will still be remembered for some time for the massive heatwave. 2019 I feel will fall into relative obscurity (like the August 1932 heatwave) rather quickly due to the lack of an accompanying prolonged heatwave. 2022's record is huge although I doubt it will remain for all that long. I see next year going above 40 again if Nino sticks to the dry spring script and then we get a hot summer after that. If not that then another heatwave will come up at some point and we'll pass it by the mid-2030s. Aside from that we will have more than a couple summers reaching into the high 30s between now and then and we'll almost certainly see more 38s and 39s in the meantime.

1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I can't think of any record breaking months that I get this feeling with, but I can remember a couple of near approaches. I remember in late August 1997 hoping for a few cool days near the end because I didn't think it deserved to beat August 1995 for the title of "hottest August on record". I also remember hoping for May 2008 to not beat May 1992. In both cases I got the outcome that I wanted, but only just.

I'd never actually paid much attention to August 1997 before - Looks very much like the August version of June 2023. Several tropical nights or near misses at Heathrow anyhow. Overall 1997 has the far more extreme daily minima, but 1995 has the more extreme daily maxima and of course the dry period was much more intense too. I think 1995 also had a farther reach as it's still the hottest summer on record across the Welsh and NWrn coast, which shows you how gigantic an area it accounted for, and so it will stick out more in the minds of those who live in western areas that normally dodge the heatwaves than more recent hot summers that didn't go as far on the west coast.

I wasn't alive for May 1992, but I will agree that it looks more extreme than 2008, by a considerable margin. The season was trundling along, quite backended as Nino seasons tend to be, and then suddenly eight consecutive days of >25.9C at Heathrow. Daily minima really high by the end as well. If there's any month that deserved to rubbish May 1944 then that's as good as any.

The truth is, in my lifetime, aside from 2012 in Scotland and 27th May 2005, we haven't really had any extraordinary Mays at all (aside from May 2021 but that's in the other direction). This makes me think we're well overdue for one and the result will be horrifying when it finally does materialise.

1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I didn't find December 2015 remotely enjoyable but it certainly felt worthy of the title of "warmest December on record" to me. It was a similar story with the record warm November of 1994.

I remember things from December 2015 as being from October because of how warm it was Very high daily maxima and extremely high daily minima. It was also extraordinarily wet on the west coast and is several locations' wettest month on record, even beating January 2014. However on the east coast where I am it wasn't wet at all and actually veered on the drier side, so December 2015 was narrowly stopped from having that record too.

1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I remember there being an element of this around February 1998, because it was easily the warmest February on record in the regions that were frequently grey and drizzly, while in the regions that had a lot of warm and sunny weather by day and highs of 18-19C around the 13th, it generally wasn't as warm as February 1990 because the clear skies resulted in relatively low overnight minima. And yes, February 2019 certainly felt worthy of its 21C record to me - that was a remarkable spell of weather.

Of course the February 1998 record was on Friday 13th

21 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Feel cheated that Nov 1994 has been downgraded from the only above Nov 10c at 10.1 to now at 9.9c ...why ???????????

Probably corrections of slightly inaccurate measurements.

[SummerShower]

On 20/11/2023 at 13:46, Summer8906 said:

I'm also glad September 2023 didn't break any records to be honest: again I'd prefer the Sep record to be broken in a September which is notably warm and sunny all the way through.

 

That September heatwave was glorious and will live long in the memory.  It would have been a notable heatwave even if it had occurred in July.  

I think it was so intense (for the time of year) it would have taken an exceptional cold spell to stop the record.  It was like August 1995 - that had beaten the record by the end of the 3rd week, whatever happened.

I'm actually glad it beat September 2006, which didnt actually have any extremes of temperature, but was just consistently warm but unsettled.

I am of course talking about the overall CET and not maximum temperatures.  Hope that makes sense

Edited November 21, 2023 by SummerShower

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, SummerShower said:

It would have been a notable heatwave even if it had occurred in July.

It's so exceptional that it's now the second-longest stretch of 30C recorded in London, behind only 76. It surpassed both August 2020 and August 2022's six days. And this is in September. Even madder that it could've managed nine or ten if it happened a year earlier after the bone dry summer of 2022. The setup would've rivalled if not outright surpassed August 2003 and 2020 in terms of temp extreme had it occured in July or August. If it occured in July 2023 straight after the dry and hot June, we would've seen 10-12 days above 30C, maybe even more if the heat dome was longer-lived and even hotter due to summer insolation, approaching August 47's national record, except most days above 35C, probably three or four above 37C and almost certainly a top three hottest day, likely 39C or outright 40C again, maybe even 41-42C if winds are more SWly this time. Just goes to show what the possibilites are now. We're probably only a decade or two away from our first entire month above 30C and a decade at most from beating 76's record.

[Weather-history]

October 1995.   

For me that was a better October all round than October 2001 which holds the CET record.

 

May 1996

How close was that being the coldest May CET on record until the last few days.

 

[trickydicky]

December 2015 was hideous in every way. I hope there isn’t one like it again my lifetime. I lived in Cockermouth and worked in Penrith at the time. I became a world leader in handling a front wheel drive saloon car through surface water. Things that stand out in my mind, and include the November as well to be fair, aside from the endless, relentless rain and flooding are the constant darkness and low cloud, the A66 where it climbs from Threlkeld to Scales being essentially a river, the weirdness of it being 15/16c at night in December, that day time mins and maxes were generally around a degree apart and didn’t necessarily correspond to daylight and cycling outside in shorts and being too hot. It holds various records relating to warmth and wetness and definitely deserves the record of being the strangest month of all time. 

[SqueakheartLW]

21 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

IMO they are still important milestones; they still hold the third and second hottest days ever recorded after all, for now anyway (I'm sure a few summers between now and the 2030s will have something to say about them). August 2003 will still be remembered for some time for the massive heatwave. 2019 I feel will fall into relative obscurity (like the August 1932 heatwave) rather quickly due to the lack of an accompanying prolonged heatwave. 2022's record is huge although I doubt it will remain for all that long. I see next year going above 40 again if Nino sticks to the dry spring script and then we get a hot summer after that. If not that then another heatwave will come up at some point and we'll pass it by the mid-2030s. Aside from that we will have more than a couple summers reaching into the high 30s between now and then and we'll almost certainly see more 38s and 39s in the meantime.

The extreme high maxima in summer have typically come under ENSO Neutral or Weak/Moderate La Nina state during the summer itself. Aug 2003, July 2019 and July 2022 were all under Neutral or Weak/Moderate La Nina during the summer itself.

The more generally warm summer months which set a monthly high mean seem more likely under El Nino or a developing El Nino. July 2006, Aug 1997 and July 2018 were all under developing El Ninos.

Ongoing El Ninos don't often produce a record warm or daily extreme max and El Nino to La Nina summers typically turn out quite poor. 1998 and 2007 are perfect examples of this.

Edited November 22, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[CryoraptorA303]

16 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

The extreme high maxima in summer have typically come under ENSO Neutral or Weak/Moderate La Nina state during the summer itself. Aug 2003, July 2019 and July 2022 were all under Neutral or Weak/Moderate La Nina during the summer itself.

The more generally warm summer months which set a monthly high mean seem more likely under El Nino or a developing El Nino. July 2006, Aug 1997 and July 2018 were all under developing El Ninos.

Ongoing El Ninos don't often produce da record warm or daily extreme max and El Nino to La Nina summers typically turn out quite poor. 1998 and 2007 are perfect examples of this.

August 2003 was in the summer after an El Nino, which also came after a triple Nina, which is why I say we may be running on a similar course to that. July 2019 in a similar boat. Both of those years' Ninos terminated in the spring or early summer, which assuming no unprecidented strange stuff like double El Nino, this Nino will probably terminate at around the same time, and the summer itself will be in ENSO-neutral.

2022 was itself the final year of a triple Nina, and triple Ninas seem to send global weather on a mad one. 1974-1976 comes to mind, which to my knowledge is the overall most extreme La Nina event observed since the beginning of records. Overall normal La Nina summers don't seem to be that hot, or cold either, they are apparently very benign and zonal, which makes sense in the context of strong Walker circulation. The exception is 1995 which was very dry and seasonally extreme.

I will give you the second one though, June 2023 can be added to the list of those. June 1957 also made an attempt in its own bizarre way.

Of course climate change is now also a fulminant factor in deciding weather and global temps are quickly accelerating away from historical precedents. Next years combined strong Nino-climate change-Hunga Tonga if it's having a noticeable temperature impact global temps may completely remove the relevance of ENSO in the first place and the weather is just automatically hotter. Bonus points if in the typical Nino fashion the upcoming Spring 2024 is dry as well.

Edited November 22, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[Summer8906]

21 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

It's so exceptional that it's now the second-longest stretch of 30C recorded in London, behind only 76. It surpassed both August 2020 and August 2022's six days. And this is in September. Even madder that it could've managed nine or ten if it happened a year earlier after the bone dry summer of 2022. The setup would've rivalled if not outright surpassed August 2003 and 2020 in terms of temp extreme had it occured in July or August. If it occured in July 2023 straight after the dry and hot June, we would've seen 10-12 days above 30C, maybe even more if the heat dome was longer-lived and even hotter due to summer insolation, approaching August 47's national record, except most days above 35C, probably three or four above 37C and almost certainly a top three hottest day, likely 39C or outright 40C again, maybe even 41-42C if winds are more SWly this time. Just goes to show what the possibilites are now. We're probably only a decade or two away from our first entire month above 30C and a decade at most from beating 76's record.

I'm not so sure about that. Even places in Northern Greece struggle to achieve that, there's always been at least two or three 28s or 29s IMX. In July 2022 there was even a 19 (by shop temperature displays) where I was on Sat 9th.

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

I'm not so sure about that. Even places in Northern Greece struggle to achieve that, there's always been at least two or three 28s or 29s IMX. In July 2022 there was even a 19 (by shop temperature displays) where I was on Sat 9th.

July may have had the 40C heat spike but was overall not the month to talk about. In terms of consistently high temperatures August was even worse and also achieved a wider area too. The coolest day of the entire month was the 5th with 24.6C at Wiggonholt, and that was one of only two sub-25C days all month. The majority of the month was above 26C even in the South West. I'm surprised August 2022 isn't the hottest on record to be honest, surely other giants like 1997, 1995 and 1947 would've gone lower than 24.6 for at least a few days despite their feats?

This is also why I say if the July 2022 heatwave (not the first one, we all know which one I mean) happened in early August instead, it would've been even hotter despite the slightly lower insolation. You have 2-3 more weeks of the ground getting even drier and absorbing more heat, the oceans getting warmer, the easterly breeze getting weaker so the deep SE can get hotter, etc. etc.. Overall the net effect must surely be a higher temperature than in mid-July. In August 1932 there was a late intense heatwave and they somehow got to 36.1C at Halstead (the London measurements are ) on August 19th, which would be late to reach such a temperature even today. Considering the wind direction, hotspots like Gravesend and Faversham that didn't have stations back then might've and probably did go even higher. Considering that 36.1C would translate to a high 37-low 38 today, this tells you how much is actually possible this late in the summer provided with hot enough air and the right winds. The sun is still strong in August and the potential is only really being lost after the 20th. I have no idea if 1932 up to that point had been particularly dry or hot, but I'm going to assume it probably was to reach such temps.

Perhaps I was a bit pessimistic, but surely we will see a month with a minimum >27-28C in the not so distant future at this rate.

[baddie]

March 2012 certainly deserved that record, becausethe warmth at the end based in Scotland, where it almost reached 24c. If the heatwave was based in the South, we would have hit 26c for the first time in March. The first half of month was also warm and settled, as I recorded 19c on the 11th. However, March 2021 doesnt deserve the record, because the heat only lasted for 3 days, where March 2012 lasted for 10 days

[Optimus Prime]

Yeah March 2012 was astonishing (even more so for North America). That months deserves the record.

August 2022 seems like a reasonable candidate.

 

[CryoraptorA303]

2 hours ago, baddie said:

March 2012 certainly deserved that record, becausethe warmth at the end based in Scotland, where it almost reached 24c. If the heatwave was based in the South, we would have hit 26c for the first time in March. The first half of month was also warm and settled, as I recorded 19c on the 11th. However, March 2021 doesnt deserve the record, because the heat only lasted for 3 days, where March 2012 lasted for 10 days

I think it would've gone even higher than 26 given the same circumstances. Spring 2012 was very strange in Scotland being hotter for much of it. You do always get these occasional Scotland-centric hot spells in the spring months and sometimes June but not this consistently. I wonder if the soil moisture was significantly lower in Scotland than in E&W during spring 2012, potentially due to unusually southern storm tracks over the winter and/or high latitude blocking like summer 2021, so they ended up getting hotter than much of England during those heatwaves. Even the likes of Heathrow and Wisley were struggling to keep up.

Even with that in mind, March and May 2012 were still hot in the SE and I remember a lot of March as being part of April instead. Easter was on April 8th that year and I remember the last day of term being really unusually warm for the time of year so we must've broken up for Easter holiday just before the hot spell gave up. I also clearly remember May 2012 and it was quite funny to hear about it snowing in parts of Scotland a couple weeks later in June.

We are really overdue a significant hot spell in March or May in the SE (but not April funnily enough, we have plenty of those) and we're going to seriously break records when it finally does happen. June has also had quite a few lucky escapes, both 2017 and 2019 could've been far worse than they were. I could see March getting 27-28, and May getting 35 or maybe even 36. June has the potential to get as hot as it wants if it gets hot enough air in.

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, Optimus Prime said:

August 2022 seems like a reasonable candidate.

As said, it's really surprising to me that it's not the hottest on record. It's definitely the hottest on record on the east coast, in fact the summer of 2022 as a whole is the hottest from Kent to the northern lowlands. It was certainly extremely hot here, definitely the hottest overall summer I've experienced. Only August 2020 and July 25th 2019 are overall individually worse events for me than August 2022.

[baddie]

2 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I think it would've gone even higher than 26 given the same circumstances. Spring 2012 was very strange in Scotland being hotter for much of it. You do always get these occasional Scotland-centric hot spells in the spring months and sometimes June but not this consistently. I wonder if the soil moisture was significantly lower in Scotland than in E&W during spring 2012, potentially due to unusually southern storm tracks over the winter and/or high latitude blocking like summer 2021, so they ended up getting hotter than much of England during those heatwaves. Even the likes of Heathrow and Wisley were struggling to keep up.

Even with that in mind, March and May 2012 were still hot in the SE and I remember a lot of March as being part of April instead. Easter was on April 8th that year and I remember the last day of term being really unusually warm for the time of year so we must've broken up for Easter holiday just before the hot spell gave up. I also clearly remember May 2012 and it was quite funny to hear about it snowing in parts of Scotland a couple weeks later in June.

We are really overdue a significant hot spell in March or May in the SE (but not April funnily enough, we have plenty of those) and we're going to seriously break records when it finally does happen. June has also had quite a few lucky escapes, both 2017 and 2019 could've been far worse than they were. I could see March getting 27-28, and May getting 35 or maybe even 36. June has the potential to get as hot as it wants if it gets hot enough air in.

We absolutely need a warm spell in April, especially in the first 10 days, as we had no luck in the past decade (2017 and 2020 were the only ones to have proper warmth to begin April).
Perhaps an extended warm spell from 20th March until 10th April, along with a spring-like first 12 days of March, (Mid-month being cold and unsettled)

[CryoraptorA303]

2 hours ago, baddie said:

We absolutely need a warm spell in April, especially in the first 10 days, as we had no luck in the past decade (2017 and 2020 were the only ones to have proper warmth to begin April).
Perhaps an extended warm spell from 20th March until 10th April, along with a spring-like first 12 days of March, (Mid-month being cold and unsettled)

The beginning of April 2011 was also quite warm with 23C on the 6th, and the second half of March 2011 had been quite warm as well. Funny how the extreme spring heatwaves keep materialising in April. The only hot April that was really overshadowed by the May after it was 2020 to be honest. May would've been the most exceptional and "summerest" month of 2020 had the August heatwave not happened. May 2017 was overall warmer than April but I wouldn't say it was as exceptional.

Considering the warm to hot springs of the 21st century, and that the last one happened in 2020 (spring 2022 was kinda consistently warm but it wasn't all that exceptional, the dryness was more notable than anything else), next spring will also fall on the apparent recurrence rate of exceptionally warm springs. Personally I think over this winter we'll see some low temps and things gradually getting drier, the cold will persist into March and then we'll see quite a rapid shift to some really warm temps. I'm so far very confident in May 2024 being exceptionally hot. At the very least we'll see the first May 30C since 2012. Something like September 2023 wouldn't be that shocking to me, except with possibly even higher temps due to the higher insolation. As I said on another thread, something like 35.9C on the hottest day near the east coast wouldn't be mindblowing to me. Global temps are going to be shockingly high by May next year, oceans will be significantly warmer than usual and the jet stream will be absolutely knackered. Not to mention we will have likely been in a prolonged dry period by then.

 

[baddie]

2 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

The beginning of April 2011 was also quite warm with 23C on the 6th, and the second half of March 2011 had been quite warm as well. Funny how the extreme spring heatwaves keep materialising in April. The only hot April that was really overshadowed by the May after it was 2020 to be honest. May would've been the most exceptional and "summerest" month of 2020 had the August heatwave not happened. May 2017 was overall warmer than April but I wouldn't say it was as exceptional.

Considering the warm to hot springs of the 21st century, and that the last one happened in 2020 (spring 2022 was kinda consistently warm but it wasn't all that exceptional, the dryness was more notable than anything else), next spring will also fall on the apparent recurrence rate of exceptionally warm springs. Personally I think over this winter we'll see some low temps and things gradually getting drier, the cold will persist into March and then we'll see quite a rapid shift to some really warm temps. I'm so far very confident in May 2024 being exceptionally hot. At the very least we'll see the first May 30C since 2012. Something like September 2023 wouldn't be that shocking to me, except with possibly even higher temps due to the higher insolation. As I said on another thread, something like 35.9C on the hottest day near the east coast wouldn't be mindblowing to me. Global temps are going to be shockingly high by May next year, oceans will be significantly warmer than usual and the jet stream will be absolutely knackered. Not to mention we will have likely been in a prolonged dry period by then.

 

I am hoping for March/April next year to be like a spring version July/August 2022. March would see a brief, exceptional heat spike, e.g 26.7c on the 25th (To resemble the 40c day), as well as othe rwarm days from the equinox onwards, as well as a pleasant first 10 days or so, followed by wall-to-wall sunshine and summer-like temepratures in the first third of April (In resemblence to the second week of August 2022), with the rest of the month being mixed, but the last 5 days are pleasant

If you combine the period 20th March - 10 April, you would be looking at a summer months worth of sunshine in 3 weeks during spring (Pretty exceptional, but doable)

For May, I think it will be a month of two-halves, with the first half being like a May 2021 redux, but improving from the 15th, and the Bank Holiday will see some incredible temperatures, e.g 33.5c on the 26th and 34.1c on the 27th, and this will be followed by thunderstorms. Temepratures and Sunshine totals will be similar to May 2023, but rainfall somewhat above average

I think Summer 2024 will be something like Summer 1996


To stay on the topic of the forum, a month that didnt deserve the temperature record was April 2018, because the week before the heatwave happened, we were all trapped under low cloud or fog, and temepratures could not go above 6c. The second week of April recorded no sunshine at all. The heatwave also came off the back of an extended winter, which didnt warm up until April 13th (Funnily, the extended winter of 2012/13 didnt warm up unitl April 13th either). There were no gradual increases in temperature, as it went straight from cold to warm in just a few days, so none of that 16c and sunny that I would have loced to have seen in March. The week afte the April heatwave was also dull and wet, then unseasonably cold in the last 4 days of April. Not a good month at all in my opinion

October 2023 is one that actually deserved the first 30c October, as it came after a warm September, and it happened during a period of dry weather (Rather than a heat spike in a cold and unsettled period), as well as flowers starting to re-bloom, and leaves coming back on to a couple bare trees (An unseasonal spring). Sadly, the rest of October wasnt great, and became very wet later on. However, October 2023 didnt deserve to be the wettest on record, because the first half was at least dry, and even after Storm Babet, there were quite a few dry days, albeit dull

Edited November 24, 2023 by baddie

[TheOgre]

September 2023 deserved to break the record after that heatwave.

August 2022 deserved a record as it was a stunning month.

The July 2019 heatwave would have been more deserved at the end of the July 2018 heatwave.

January 2013 deserves to be colder than January 2021 as the snowy spell was more prolonged and severe.

Edited November 24, 2023 by TheOgre