Months that deserved records but didn't achieve them

[Cheshire Freeze]

No one mentioned Dec 2010?

Wasn’t it just 0.1C away from being the coldest December ever recorded? 

[cheese]

11 hours ago, TheOgre said:

September 2023 deserved to break the record after that heatwave.

August 2022 deserved a record as it was a stunning month.

The July 2019 heatwave would have been more deserved at the end of the July 2018 heatwave.

January 2013 deserves to be colder than January 2021 as the snowy spell was more prolonged and severe.

August 2022 was the warmest on record for some areas to be fair.

Edited November 24, 2023 by cheese

[cheeky_monkey]

13 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

No one mentioned Dec 2010?

Wasn’t it just 0.1C away from being the coldest December ever recorded? 

did it deserve to be the coldest December on record though?

[baddie]

February 2021 did not deserve to break the coldest temperature record, with it being -23c in Braemar on th 11th. This is because the cold spike only lasted one day, and I only got as low as -6c on the 11th, as well as most areas in England

February 2012 deserved to, because the cold spell lasted the entire first half, as well as the last few days of January. The cold spell was also based in England, where it got close to -16c in Linoclnshire, and below -10c widely, and I recorded -8c on the 11th and on many other nights, as well as some places not exceeding -4c on the 11th. If the cold spell was based in Scotland, we could have got close to -30c. Scotland was extraordinarily mild in Februaey and March 2012, where England was colder than average in February 2012, and warmer than average (But not quite an anomaly compared to Scotland) in March 2012. Hence why February and March 2012 should have broke their records

Edited November 24, 2023 by baddie

[Methuselah]

This has sort of lost me: how can an arbitrary segment of the year deserve a record? 

[CryoraptorA303]

20 hours ago, baddie said:

I am hoping for March/April next year to be like a spring version July/August 2022. March would see a brief, exceptional heat spike, e.g 26.7c on the 25th (To resemble the 40c day), as well as othe rwarm days from the equinox onwards, as well as a pleasant first 10 days or so, followed by wall-to-wall sunshine and summer-like temepratures in the first third of April (In resemblence to the second week of August 2022), with the rest of the month being mixed, but the last 5 days are pleasant

If you combine the period 20th March - 10 April, you would be looking at a summer months worth of sunshine in 3 weeks during spring (Pretty exceptional, but doable)

For May, I think it will be a month of two-halves, with the first half being like a May 2021 redux, but improving from the 15th, and the Bank Holiday will see some incredible temperatures, e.g 33.5c on the 26th and 34.1c on the 27th, and this will be followed by thunderstorms. Temepratures and Sunshine totals will be similar to May 2023, but rainfall somewhat above average

I think Summer 2024 will be something like Summer 1996

I don't think any of this is particularly likely. As said I think we'll see quite a rapid warmup from cold temps in March and the rest of spring will be very dry and warm. Spring will likely be the spectacle next year.

Having said that there's also the potential for quite a lot of Nino backending 2016 style. Following that there's also a chance the September record will be up for grabs again next year. Considering there's an electoral record from 1906 that may be beaten next year, it'd be quite poetic if the other long-standing record from 1906 is also beaten. Following on from a very dry and warm spring and a dry July-August period (lets assume there's a wet break in June), a heat dome bubbles from Iberia late in August and brings a late hot heatwave, then on the first couple days of September the heatwave peaks and we see a record break. I wrote a hypothetical scenario of this for this September (guess I was onto something with a big heat dome, fortunately the year before it had mostly been wet) and I had the record be 37.6C at East Malling (yes yes I know I engage in a bit of favouritism but Kent is often the hottest in August/September). Obviously that'd be monstrous however I'd still want to see September achieve a top 10 hottest day, so being more realistic, perhaps have the new record be 36.8C or 36.9C as to just beat the 1911 all-time record. I should think that'd be possible in earliest September with an overall very dry year before it and a heatwave that'd get you 39-41C in July or early August.

Just out of interest I thought I'd elaborate on the heatwave a bit starting from when it gets exceptionally hot:

August 29th 33.6C Swanscombe Kent (no idea if this station still exists)

August 30th 35.8C Wiggonholt West Sussex (would also be an all-time record for Wiggonholt)

August 31st 36.9C Northolt London (seventh-hottest day on record at time of recording, would now be ninth-hottest after the full heatwave)

September 1st 37.6C East Malling Kent (new September record by 2C, unambiguous only by 3C, also sixth-hottest day on record)

September 2nd 37.2C Faversham Kent (was originally Gravesend before I knew that station was shut down in 2018, RIP) (also seventh-hottest day on record) (September 2nd also records 22.1C daily low at Eastbourne East Sussex, setting new highest daily low for September)

September 3rd 34.3C Coningsby Lincolnshire

This would obviously be absolutely satanic, so perhaps take about a degree off everything to make it a bit more realistic, except still have September 1st beat 36.7C for 1911's all-time record, just to make the statement.

I'm also assuming September 1st would be the hottest day of the year unless there was already an equally massive heatwave earlier in the year.

20 hours ago, baddie said:

To stay on the topic of the forum, a month that didnt deserve the temperature record was April 2018, because the week before the heatwave happened, we were all trapped under low cloud or fog, and temepratures could not go above 6c. The second week of April recorded no sunshine at all. The heatwave also came off the back of an extended winter, which didnt warm up until April 13th (Funnily, the extended winter of 2012/13 didnt warm up unitl April 13th either). There were no gradual increases in temperature, as it went straight from cold to warm in just a few days, so none of that 16c and sunny that I would have loced to have seen in March. The week afte the April heatwave was also dull and wet, then unseasonably cold in the last 4 days of April. Not a good month at all in my opinion

Totally agree, it's such a random April to have a heat spike in. Would've been more apt for 2011 or 2020. Funnily enough given the setup and how wet 2018 had been up until then (oh how that changed), the same heat spike in either of those years would've likely produced >30C.

Funnily enough, April 13th 2018 was Friday the 13th, and 2013 was a near miss with Saturday 13th. Spooky

20 hours ago, baddie said:

October 2023 is one that actually deserved the first 30c October, as it came after a warm September, and it happened during a period of dry weather (Rather than a heat spike in a cold and unsettled period), as well as flowers starting to re-bloom, and leaves coming back on to a couple bare trees (An unseasonal spring). Sadly, the rest of October wasnt great, and became very wet later on. However, October 2023 didnt deserve to be the wettest on record, because the first half was at least dry, and even after Storm Babet, there were quite a few dry days, albeit dull

It's definitely a close contender. I'd say 2011 still deserved it a little more due to the ridiculously extreme heatwave for the time of year and the fact that 29.9C is an incredibly cruel record, but 2023 probably deserved to catch at least one all-time record. Same with 2018 really, with such an exceptionally dry and hot summer it deserved an all-time record of some sort. October 2018 still holds the hottest October day since the 2011 heatwave (at the time I got very excited about East Malling getting 26.1C this October as I thought this was the hottest since 2011, and it felt fitting that it was also in Kent just like the 2011 heatwave, until I learned that 2018 got 26.5C at Donna Nook all the way in Lincolnshire), so it would seem it had the best shot of beating it so far.

18 hours ago, TheOgre said:

September 2023 deserved to break the record after that heatwave.

August 2022 deserved a record as it was a stunning month.

The July 2019 heatwave would have been more deserved at the end of the July 2018 heatwave.

January 2013 deserves to be colder than January 2021 as the snowy spell was more prolonged and severe.

Totally agree with all of this. If I'm not mistaken there was a run in July 2018 that suggested Coningsby four years early and widespread 40/41C in Kent, London and East Anglia. This obviously didn't materialise and instead we got 35.3C at Faversham (although it should be noted it had two consecutive >35C days with 35.2C the next day), which while historically a high temp isn't really that exceptional anymore and is even below 1976's max. We really should've had at least 37C in 2018 (I would say 38 but considering the record was still 38.5C I'll tame it a bit). The actual synoptics of July 2019 don't even look like they should've delivered 38.7C in dry times, let alone wet, but there we are I suppose. As said before I would've been really tempted to ignore 38.7C and go with Faversham's 38.4C as the hottest temp to preseve the 2003 record from this idiotic heat spike, but sadly I'm not a Met Office senior. Actually, I'd probably be sacked on the first day with how annoyed I'd get about several things

It honestly surprises me January 2021 was colder than 2013, I don't remember Jan 2021 being that cold at all. I'm guessing it was mostly the low daily minima that did it. The February cold snap is far more memorable for me due to the snow, although of course after that we had an outrageously early Spring. That's La Nina for you I suppose. From memory January 2013 had the colder daytime temps during the cold snap but didn't get all that cold at night due to cloud cover. Unfortunately Jan 2013 was also bound at both sides by mild Atlantic garbage, which would've significantly raised the average. Jan 2021 does feel quite undeserved. Jan 2023 getting Heathrow's lowest temp since December 2010 also feels massively undeserved with how not-cold it was in the daytime. December 2010 was very cold and a highly memorable cold spell; January 2023 doesn't even deserve to utter its name.

Edited November 24, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[CryoraptorA303]

17 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

No one mentioned Dec 2010?

Wasn’t it just 0.1C away from being the coldest December ever recorded? 

I think so. I'm pretty sure its an outright stolen record as Scotland was colder in Dec 1890 than 2010, while the rest of the UK was colder. I think NI and Wales both set all time minimum records for December in 2010.

5 hours ago, cheese said:

August 2022 was the warmest on record for some areas to be fair.

Mostly along the east coast, although I don't think anyone really cares about regional records outside of the constituent countries of the UK, i.e. September 2023 is the hottest for E&W, but not for Scotland and that broke 2023 from being the hottest nationally. If you ask me the E&W record is still significant as that's a huge area, but along the east coast? That's probably not relevant to most people.

3 hours ago, baddie said:

February 2021 did not deserve to break the coldest temperature record, with it being -23c in Braemar on th 11th. This is because the cold spike only lasted one day, and I only got as low as -6c on the 11th, as well as most areas in England

February 2012 deserved to, because the cold spell lasted the entire first half, as well as the last few days of January. The cold spell was also based in England, where it got close to -16c in Linoclnshire, and below -10c widely, and I recorded -8c on the 11th and on many other nights, as well as some places not exceeding -4c on the 11th. If the cold spell was based in Scotland, we could have got close to -30c. Scotland was extraordinarily mild in Februaey and March 2012, where England was colder than average in February 2012, and warmer than average (But not quite an anomaly compared to Scotland) in March 2012. Hence why February and March 2012 should have broke their records

It didn't get the coldest February temp on record to be fair, just the coldest since 1956, although it's quite ludicrous that it beat giants like 1963 and 1986 considering it wasn't a particularly exceptional cold snap otherwise and the second half of February was absolutely laughable. Even BFTE in 2018 got significantly colder here in Kent (-14.2C at Faversham vs around -7C somewhere). We're talking about Februaries that were cold for the entire month here, while 2021 was cold for about a week before it became one of the earliest springs on (unofficial I'm sure) record.

February 2012 was also arguably the most exceptional cold snap in southern England since January 1987 and if any deserved to walk with the giants of old it was that one. That was definitely the most snow (around four inches) I've seen accumulate in my lifetime and it had staying power too. Unfortunately it was a victim of circumstance and the Scandi high was a little too far south for it to fully land in Scotland. Otherwise considering the feats it achieved on the continent I'm sure it would've managed to outright rival the giants.

3 hours ago, Methuselah said:

This has sort of lost me: how can an arbitrary segment of the year deserve a record? 

I don't know, it's just a bit of anthropomorphism and fun

[Weather-history]

4 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

did it deserve to be the coldest December on record though?

December 2010 has a clutch of minimum date records.

27-November 27-December 2010 had a CET of -1.5, this shows how remarkable that period was. It is the coldest 31 running day CET period since 1962-1963 and the coldest 31 day CET period so early in the winter season since at least 1772.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Weather-history

[baddie]

March 2023 - Another one that didnt deserve the cold record, as it got down to -16c in Scotland on the 9th, making it the coldest March day since 2010, and I recorded -6c on the 11th, and again, my coldest March day since 2006 (It was -6.7c during the BFTE, but on February 28th, and it was-5c in the March 2013 snow), and even that managed to reach 7c by day because hazy sunshine. It lead straight to a dull and unsetlte period, and came off the back of a spring-like February

[MP-R]

17 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I don't think any of this is particularly likely. As said I think we'll see quite a rapid warmup from cold temps in March and the rest of spring will be very dry and warm. Spring will likely be the spectacle next year.

Having said that there's also the potential for quite a lot of Nino backending 2016 style. Following that there's also a chance the September record will be up for grabs again next year. Considering there's an electoral record from 1906 that may be beaten next year, it'd be quite poetic if the other long-standing record from 1906 is also beaten. Following on from a very dry and warm spring and a dry July-August period (lets assume there's a wet break in June), a heat dome bubbles from Iberia late in August and brings a late hot heatwave, then on the first couple days of September the heatwave peaks and we see a record break. I wrote a hypothetical scenario of this for this September (guess I was onto something with a big heat dome, fortunately the year before it had mostly been wet) and I had the record be 37.6C at East Malling (yes yes I know I engage in a bit of favouritism but Kent is often the hottest in August/September). Obviously that'd be monstrous however I'd still want to see September achieve a top 10 hottest day, so being more realistic, perhaps have the new record be 36.8C or 36.9C as to just beat the 1911 all-time record. I should think that'd be possible in earliest September with an overall very dry year before it and a heatwave that'd get you 39-41C in July or early August.

Just out of interest I thought I'd elaborate on the heatwave a bit starting from when it gets exceptionally hot:

August 29th 33.6C Swanscombe Kent (no idea if this station still exists)

August 30th 35.8C Wiggonholt West Sussex (would also be an all-time record for Wiggonholt)

August 31st 36.9C Northolt London (seventh-hottest day on record at time of recording, would now be ninth-hottest after the full heatwave)

September 1st 37.6C East Malling Kent (new September record by 2C, unambiguous only by 3C, also sixth-hottest day on record)

September 2nd 37.2C Faversham Kent (was originally Gravesend before I knew that station was shut down in 2018, RIP) (also seventh-hottest day on record) (September 2nd also records 22.1C daily low at Eastbourne East Sussex, setting new highest daily low for September)

September 3rd 34.3C Coningsby Lincolnshire

This would obviously be absolutely satanic, so perhaps take about a degree off everything to make it a bit more realistic, except still have September 1st beat 36.7C for 1911's all-time record, just to make the statement.

I'm also assuming September 1st would be the hottest day of the year unless there was already an equally massive heatwave earlier in the year.

Totally agree, it's such a random April to have a heat spike in. Would've been more apt for 2011 or 2020. Funnily enough given the setup and how wet 2018 had been up until then (oh how that changed), the same heat spike in either of those years would've likely produced >30C.

Funnily enough, April 13th 2018 was Friday the 13th, and 2013 was a near miss with Saturday 13th. Spooky

It's definitely a close contender. I'd say 2011 still deserved it a little more due to the ridiculously extreme heatwave for the time of year and the fact that 29.9C is an incredibly cruel record, but 2023 probably deserved to catch at least one all-time record. Same with 2018 really, with such an exceptionally dry and hot summer it deserved an all-time record of some sort. October 2018 still holds the hottest October day since the 2011 heatwave (at the time I got very excited about East Malling getting 26.1C this October as I thought this was the hottest since 2011, and it felt fitting that it was also in Kent just like the 2011 heatwave, until I learned that 2018 got 26.5C at Donna Nook all the way in Lincolnshire), so it would seem it had the best shot of beating it so far.

Totally agree with all of this. If I'm not mistaken there was a run in July 2018 that suggested Coningsby four years early and widespread 40/41C in Kent, London and East Anglia. This obviously didn't materialise and instead we got 35.3C at Faversham (although it should be noted it had two consecutive >35C days with 35.2C the next day), which while historically a high temp isn't really that exceptional anymore and is even below 1976's max. We really should've had at least 37C in 2018 (I would say 38 but considering the record was still 38.5C I'll tame it a bit). The actual synoptics of July 2019 don't even look like they should've delivered 38.7C in dry times, let alone wet, but there we are I suppose. As said before I would've been really tempted to ignore 38.7C and go with Faversham's 38.4C as the hottest temp to preseve the 2003 record from this idiotic heat spike, but sadly I'm not a Met Office senior. Actually, I'd probably be sacked on the first day with how annoyed I'd get about several things

It honestly surprises me January 2021 was colder than 2013, I don't remember Jan 2021 being that cold at all. I'm guessing it was mostly the low daily minima that did it. The February cold snap is far more memorable for me due to the snow, although of course after that we had an outrageously early Spring. That's La Nina for you I suppose. From memory January 2013 had the colder daytime temps during the cold snap but didn't get all that cold at night due to cloud cover. Unfortunately Jan 2013 was also bound at both sides by mild Atlantic garbage, which would've significantly raised the average. Jan 2021 does feel quite undeserved. Jan 2023 getting Heathrow's lowest temp since December 2010 also feels massively undeserved with how not-cold it was in the daytime. December 2010 was very cold and a highly memorable cold spell; January 2023 doesn't even deserve to utter its name.

Even though 2018 would’ve been more deserving of the record given how dry and hot it was throughout, 2019 was also a pretty dry July. Only the Friday before the heatwave was wet, but it had been dry since the taps finally turned off in mid June. I think France was also hotter in 2019 than 2018. 
 

I’d have been more peeved if 2019 hadn’t happened and 2020 took the record though as that would’ve been wholly undeserved!

[CryoraptorA303]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

I’d have been more peeved if 2019 hadn’t happened and 2020 took the record though as that would’ve been wholly undeserved!

Totally disagree, spring 2020 was exceptionally dry and warm, June wasn't wet in the SE and July was also dry along the south coast, and August 2020 had what was in some ways the most exceptional heatwave ever recorded. August 2020 deserved 38.7C significantly more than July 2019. Had it happened in June instead just after the extremely dry May it would've probably gotten there.

2019 had been far more unsettled and wet up until July and July itself wasn't particularly hot until the heat spike, just humid. 2018 had been bone dry and hot since May, although it had a lot of catching up to do from the wet March. We would've seen a second 1976 if 2018 May onwards occured after, idk, winter 09/10 inc. March and April 2010. 2018 also kept getting briefly interrupted by the occasional thunderstorm - May ended up actually slightly wetter than average in Kent even though May as a whole had been really dry and warm, and we experienced a single intense thunderstorm towards the end of the month. Overall 2018 was a really poor attempt at a 1976 repeat, but it still managed the joint-hottest July on record. 2022 didn't manage the same kind of intensely dry month overall (June 2018 is one of the driest months ever recorded), but over the whole year it was much consistently drier than 2018. Even February 2022 wasn't all that wet along the south coast.

19 hours ago, baddie said:

March 2023 - Another one that didnt deserve the cold record, as it got down to -16c in Scotland on the 9th, making it the coldest March day since 2010, and I recorded -6c on the 11th, and again, my coldest March day since 2006 (It was -6.7c during the BFTE, but on February 28th, and it was-5c in the March 2013 snow), and even that managed to reach 7c by day because hazy sunshine. It lead straight to a dull and unsetlte period, and came off the back of a spring-like February

The cold spell at the beginning of March was barely noticed in the SE and the overwhelming memory here is the unusually autumnal spell in the second half. It was more like November than March for most of it. April very similar until the end when it started getting a bit drier.

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Totally disagree, spring 2020 was exceptionally dry and warm, June wasn't wet in the SE and July was also dry along the south coast, and August 2020 had what was in some ways the most exceptional heatwave ever recorded. August 2020 deserved 38.7C significantly more than July 2019. Had it happened in June instead just after the extremely dry May it would've probably gotten there.

2019 had been far more unsettled and wet up until July and July itself wasn't particularly hot until the heat spike, just humid. 2018 had been bone dry and hot since May, although it had a lot of catching up to do from the wet March. We would've seen a second 1976 if 2018 May onwards occured after, idk, winter 09/10 inc. March and April 2010. 2018 also kept getting briefly interrupted by the occasional thunderstorm - May ended up actually slightly wetter than average in Kent even though May as a whole had been really dry and warm, and we experienced a single intense thunderstorm towards the end of the month. Overall 2018 was a really poor attempt at a 1976 repeat, but it still managed the joint-hottest July on record. 2022 didn't manage the same kind of intensely dry month overall (June 2018 is one of the driest months ever recorded), but over the whole year it was much consistently drier than 2018. Even February 2022 wasn't all that wet along the south coast.

The cold spell at the beginning of March was barely noticed in the SE and the overwhelming memory here is the unusually autumnal spell in the second half. It was more like November than March for most of it. April very similar until the end when it started getting a bit drier.

There’s no comparison between 2019 and 2020 Julys really. Even just looking at photos the grass went brown in July 2019 but turned green again from the rain in 2020. In any case, July 2020’s heat was confined to the last day (like 2015 but in reverse); 2019 at least featured mostly fine conditions throughout with a few hiccups along the way. 

Given how meh July 2020 was, it would’ve been more fitting for the heatwave on the 31st to have been Friday 01st August instead, as that first half of August was pretty exceptional.

[CryoraptorA303]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

There’s no comparison between 2019 and 2020 Julys really. Even just looking at photos the grass went brown in July 2019 but turned green again from the rain in 2020. In any case, July 2020’s heat was confined to the last day (like 2015 but in reverse); 2019 at least featured mostly fine conditions throughout with a few hiccups along the way. 

Given how meh July 2020 was, it would’ve been more fitting for the heatwave on the 31st to have been Friday 01st August instead, as that first half of August was pretty exceptional.

Ok that's fair enough, I was talking more the two summers overall.

[baddie]

36 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Totally disagree, spring 2020 was exceptionally dry and warm, June wasn't wet in the SE and July was also dry along the south coast, and August 2020 had what was in some ways the most exceptional heatwave ever recorded. August 2020 deserved 38.7C significantly more than July 2019. Had it happened in June instead just after the extremely dry May it would've probably gotten there.

2019 had been far more unsettled and wet up until July and July itself wasn't particularly hot until the heat spike, just humid. 2018 had been bone dry and hot since May, although it had a lot of catching up to do from the wet March. We would've seen a second 1976 if 2018 May onwards occured after, idk, winter 09/10 inc. March and April 2010. 2018 also kept getting briefly interrupted by the occasional thunderstorm - May ended up actually slightly wetter than average in Kent even though May as a whole had been really dry and warm, and we experienced a single intense thunderstorm towards the end of the month. Overall 2018 was a really poor attempt at a 1976 repeat, but it still managed the joint-hottest July on record. 2022 didn't manage the same kind of intensely dry month overall (June 2018 is one of the driest months ever recorded), but over the whole year it was much consistently drier than 2018. Even February 2022 wasn't all that wet along the south coast.

The cold spell at the beginning of March was barely noticed in the SE and the overwhelming memory here is the unusually autumnal spell in the second half. It was more like November than March for most of it. April very similar until the end when it started getting a bit drier.

April 2023 seems to be confused with March as being another crappy month. It was certainly not a bogeyman month, it was just slightly disappointing, as it was after 4 consecutive good Aprils (Similar to September 2022s situatuon), and also the fact that we didnt get the warm spell that the Met Office promised, as it got downgraded to average temepratures


My summary (This month had been forgotten too early):

Nonetheless, Spring arrived in the first week of April, with several days of wall-to-wall sunshine in the first third, and felt pleasantly warm, evcen though temperatures were average. It was weird that we got the odd dull and drizzly day on the 5th. On Easter Monday (10th), I record thunderstorms, and sunny spells. The 11th-14th was unsettled, but there was still sunny spells, but an interestingly windy day on the 12th (Storm Noa), and the 14th was the only really boring, dire day. The 15th-20th was a dry, spring-like period, even though disappoinitng compared to Met Office forecast a few days prior. Some days of wall-to-wall susnhine later on. The 21st-23rd was weird, because the mornings were often wet, but the days were dry and with sunny spells. It turned dry again in the last week, except for the 27th, with variable cloudy and sunny days. The 28th was disappointing because I only got 12c and cloud, but Londoners got 18c and sunny spells. The last two days were warm and came out of nowhere, and also not too wet (Forecasted 15c and rain, but got 18c and sunny spells). Sunshine and Rain Days were around average, but some rainfall totals occured on both sides of midnight. Temperatures were slightly below average, but nothing like April 2012 or 2021

For clarity, I thought April 2023 was an okay month (Better than Aprils of 2004, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2018), though could and should have been better. It was probably worse in the South

Using the surprise warmth at the end of April 2023, if we had a sunny and dry April, and we had that type of setup, then we could end up with our first 30c April during some heatwave

 

Edited November 25, 2023 by baddie

[Thundery wintry showers]

December 2010 was only 0.1C off setting the CET record, but in the Met Office UK series, which now goes back well before 1890, December 2010 was the coldest on record by almost 1C. Northern and western Britain were much colder in December 2010 than in December 1890.

December 1890 was colder towards south-eastern Britain, as it was dominated by easterlies and south-easterlies off a cold continent rather than northerlies and north-easterlies, and partly because December 2010 was a dull month in the SE (in contrast to the north and west, where it was exceptionally sunny), resulting in the south-east not having as many exceptionally low minima.

This is why it was marginally colder overall in the CET series which is entirely England based. The distribution of temperature records in December 2010 felt right to me given the character of the month.

[CryoraptorA303]

On 25/11/2023 at 18:13, baddie said:

April 2023 seems to be confused with March as being another crappy month. It was certainly not a bogeyman month, it was just slightly disappointing, as it was after 4 consecutive good Aprils (Similar to September 2022s situatuon), and also the fact that we didnt get the warm spell that the Met Office promised, as it got downgraded to average temepratures


My summary (This month had been forgotten too early):

Nonetheless, Spring arrived in the first week of April, with several days of wall-to-wall sunshine in the first third, and felt pleasantly warm, evcen though temperatures were average. It was weird that we got the odd dull and drizzly day on the 5th. On Easter Monday (10th), I record thunderstorms, and sunny spells. The 11th-14th was unsettled, but there was still sunny spells, but an interestingly windy day on the 12th (Storm Noa), and the 14th was the only really boring, dire day. The 15th-20th was a dry, spring-like period, even though disappoinitng compared to Met Office forecast a few days prior. Some days of wall-to-wall susnhine later on. The 21st-23rd was weird, because the mornings were often wet, but the days were dry and with sunny spells. It turned dry again in the last week, except for the 27th, with variable cloudy and sunny days. The 28th was disappointing because I only got 12c and cloud, but Londoners got 18c and sunny spells. The last two days were warm and came out of nowhere, and also not too wet (Forecasted 15c and rain, but got 18c and sunny spells). Sunshine and Rain Days were around average, but some rainfall totals occured on both sides of midnight. Temperatures were slightly below average, but nothing like April 2012 or 2021

For clarity, I thought April 2023 was an okay month (Better than Aprils of 2004, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2018), though could and should have been better. It was probably worse in the South

Using the surprise warmth at the end of April 2023, if we had a sunny and dry April, and we had that type of setup, then we could end up with our first 30c April during some heatwave

 

April was worse in the SE and Kent in particular had a significant wet anomaly. I knew there was a reason I thought April had overall been stormier than March and the latter month simply being more consistently dull and rainy.

I am a massive coldie but I do like spring to be on the drier/sunnier side and even I started to find the extended autumn-like weather into April unpleasant. Along the east coast the period March-May is the driest of the year so a really wet, dull autumnal period sticks out. Funnily enough July is actually the driest month at East Malling for 1991-2020 which I suppose is hinting at the south coast/subtropical ridge influence. 1961-1990 is considerably more atlantic-dominated with February, the ocean's naturally coldest month having the least precip. Both March and April were wetter in 61-90. August is actually wetter in 91-20, while September is perhaps the most significantly drier month at 50.3mm vs 60.4mm for 61-90. It looks like autumn generally started earlier and the autumn rain was more evenly distributed through the months with October and November having comparable rainfall to September, however for 91-20 they are both 10mm wetter than in 61-90 and 20mm wetter than September. February also went from the driest at 40.5mm all the way to 51.2mm which is comparable to August. Overall the average annual precip increased from 639.3mm to 670.2mm, which puts EM in the range of dry east coast climates but with significant south coast wet autumn influences. EM (along with the east coast in general) is overall quite dry for an oceanic climate.

Edited November 26, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[baddie]

28th December 2019 didnt deserve the record in Scotland. The second half of the month was mostly wet and dull, and I only got 10c on the 28th and 29th, which is nothing special at all

Edited December 9, 2023 by baddie

[CryoraptorA303]

18 hours ago, baddie said:

28th December 2019 didnt deserve the record in Scotland. The second half of the month was mostly wet and dull, and I only got 10c on the 28th and 29th, which is nothing special at all

I wouldn't say it's especially undeserved but there are better Decembers for it. It would appear that in 2019 the mildest air was shoved north through Scotland leading to Fohn winds in the highlands, while England was more windstill and didn't see anything of interest.

December 2015 (obviously) and perhaps December 31st 2021 would be good candidates to have set a new record in E&W, imo.

[LetItSnow!]

It would have been notable if July 1983 had recorded an intense hot spell, considering it still ranks as one of the hottest months ever recorded. We almost did on the 31st as a surge of extremely hot air wafted up from Africa but it just missed us. A shift east probably would have gotten us into the mid-thirties.

.

[CryoraptorA303]

Another one that I'm surprised doesn't get mentioned is June/July 1976. That deserved to pull a new all-time record, perhaps the first 37C on record, but peaked at 35.9C. That was still highly impressive for its day, being the third hottest day on record and all, but it surely at least should've beaten August 1932, which was more like July 2019.

12 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

It would have been notable if July 1983 had recorded an intense hot spell, considering it still ranks as one of the hottest months ever recorded. We almost did on the 31st as a surge of extremely hot air wafted up from Africa but it just missed us. A shift east probably would have gotten us into the mid-thirties.

.

Surely you mean a shift west? A shift east would've seen less warm air over the UK, while a shift west would've seen some exceptionally hot air over the UK, with SWlies as well, to boot. July 89 could've quite plausibly beaten the then-all-time record with that. It almost looks like it could've been the final August 2003 heat spike 14 years early.

[LetItSnow!]

10 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Another one that I'm surprised doesn't get mentioned is June/July 1976. That deserved to pull a new all-time record, perhaps the first 37C on record, but peaked at 35.9C. That was still highly impressive for its day, being the third hottest day on record and all, but it surely at least should've beaten August 1932, which was more like July 2019.

Surely you mean a shift west? A shift east would've seen less warm air over the UK, while a shift west would've seen some exceptionally hot air over the UK, with SWlies as well, to boot. July 89 could've quite plausibly beaten the then-all-time record with that. It almost looks like it could've been the final August 2003 heat spike 14 years early.

If it seems like an obvious mistake then  yes, of course it is. Yes, west. 

[Greyhound81]

On 20/11/2023 at 13:46, Summer8906 said:

For example I thought that the all-time record, as was, of July 2019 was thoroughly undeserved; if you're going to get an all-time record then it should occur during a protracted hot spell rather than a brief heat spike in a generally changeable period.

What would have been even more undeserved would have been if the record was broken on 31st July 2020, the 3rd hottest day on record at the time.  That just came totally out of nowhere, unlike the records of 2019 and 2022 which were predicted a long time in advance.

[CryoraptorA303]

11 hours ago, Greyhound81 said:

What would have been even more undeserved would have been if the record was broken on 31st July 2020, the 3rd hottest day on record at the time.  That just came totally out of nowhere, unlike the records of 2019 and 2022 which were predicted a long time in advance.

I would've actually preferred it in the 2020 heatwave. How I would've had it is the buildup to the August heatwave at the end of July, the 38.7C on perhaps August 3rd, maybe 39.5C on August 7th and then 40.5C on August 11th. And then instead 37.8C was on July 25th 2019 so it was the 2nd hottest day and didn't defeat August 2003. That would've cemented August 2020 as by far the most exceptional heatwave ever recorded and it would've also shown up July 2022 I wonder what 2024 has in store for us.

[Summer8906]

On 11/12/2023 at 00:07, LetItSnow! said:

It would have been notable if July 1983 had recorded an intense hot spell, considering it still ranks as one of the hottest months ever recorded. We almost did on the 31st as a surge of extremely hot air wafted up from Africa but it just missed us. A shift east probably would have gotten us into the mid-thirties.

.

 

I remember 31/7/83 was warm but thundery with much Ac Cast here, though the 30th had been fine and sunny (and not that hot).

[AlexG595]

April 1893. Somehow not the hottest on record thanks to a cold start in that year and the exceptionally high minima and more general persistance of warm weather seen in April 2011

Late April saw 8 consecutive days over 25°C

Peaking at 29°C on the 18th. I made a chart showing the highest maxima seen during the April heatwave, though some of these may not be accurate as sources were hard to find.