Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[Atleastitwillbemild]

2 hours ago, Singing in the Snow said:

Some people watch tragic grand opera or horror films... For us there is nothing quite like the sado masochistic activity of longing for Narnia in a rapidly warming world in a country that's never really been known for cold winters anyway.

This is the most insightful thing that's been said all year. Cold chasing in the UK has always been a cruel hobby, but as the climate warms it has become nothing short of self torture. It's like an addiction to something toxic and harmful but we just can't seem to quit. For me personally, it has shifted slightly to chasing the sun now which has become equally as futile. It seems the warming climate is making things wetter and gloomier too. Every sun symbol that appears on my weather app gets downgraded to a partly sunny symbol then a dark one then rain as it gets nearer. 

There are so many hobbies and obssessions I can think of that give something back in terms of reward for people, even bird watching leads to seeing some actual birds. We have picked the most stressful and repeatedly disappointing passtime I can think of outside of gambling and considering the projections from scientists of what is going to happen to our winters (already is clearly) Its probably time we all just let go.

[lassie23]

5 hours ago, slater said:

Some X model users are trying to keep the cold coming, this week a boring mild normal run up to Christmas crap, A possible cold Christmas Day apart from that, mild or even very mild into the end of year, possible 14c on some charts today, Definitely gone much quieter on the model thread all gone back into hibernation…until the next chase 

Why do they even bother

[trickydicky]

There are some amusing posts on here at times. Posts that use very strident language but end up completely contradicting themselves. Everyone on here, more or less, is an amateur meteorologist. Even that is probably an exaggeration for most people, like me. They are just folk that are interested in the weather and want to know if it’s going to snow next week. To expect them to understand the ‘broad brush’, the ‘macro scale’ and a whole wagon full of 3 letter acronyms is potentially asking a little much. On top of that you also need to remember that, even if you do understand them, there’s no point in using them to forecast the weather where you live, because where you live is small. And, even if you understand that part, you have to remember that there is always another macroscale, broadbrush 3 letter acronym (probably in Asia) that overrides them anyway. And all that should have been anticipated. 

Edited December 17, 2023 by trickydicky

[Rob 79812010]

12 minutes ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

This is the most insightful thing that's been said all year. Cold chasing in the UK has always been a cruel hobby, but as the climate warms it has become nothing short of self torture. It's like an addiction to something toxic and harmful but we just can't seem to quit. For me personally, it has shifted slightly to chasing the sun now which has become equally as futile. It seems the warming climate is making things wetter and gloomier too. Every sun symbol that appears on my weather app gets downgraded to a partly sunny symbol then a dark one then rain as it gets nearer. 

There are so many hobbies and obssessions I can think of that give something back in terms of reward for people, even bird watching leads to seeing some actual birds. We have picked the most stressful and repeatedly disappointing passtime I can think of outside of gambling and considering the projections from scientists of what is going to happen to our winters (already is clearly) Its probably time we all just let go.

I've got a different take on the take on the same theme. In Mancheater snow has always been in short supply given the geography. But, because its so infrequent, the more I love it when it happens. I always believe the models when they predict narnia, but its a fantasy I know most of the time. That for me is the beauty of it. Ridiculous really isn't it 

[Evening thunder]

This weather is good for one thing at least:

Source: https://grid.iamkate.com/

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by Evening thunder

[Guest]

If indeed climate change is promoting heights to our south and southwest then the coming winters are going to be torture for the cold/snow troops and the hunt is going to get even more desperate. 

[MP-R]

5 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

If indeed climate change is promoting heights to our south and southwest then the coming winters are going to be torture for the cold/snow troops and the hunt is going to get even more desperate. 

I wouldn’t object to it so much if the inflated highs actually included the UK so we could get some damned sun.

Would also be great if they didn’t miraculously vanish southwards in summer too! 
 

All too often we seem to get typical winter synoptics in summer and vice versa.

[Catbrainz]

To show its not only the UK with cruddy winter weather and climates I shall show a yukcy forecast I have found. It somehow has similar sunshine levels to somewhere in the southern half I would guess rain days are similar but its heavier for Tofino. 

Tofino BC 

[SunSean]

4 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

To show its not only the UK with cruddy winter weather and climates I shall show a yukcy forecast I have found. It somehow has similar sunshine levels to somewhere in the southern half I would guess rain days are similar but its heavier for Tofino. 

Tofino BC 

What's this website? Looks quite interesting to look at other places data (and to hopefully find more places cloudier than Britain )

[Harsh Climate]

28 minutes ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

This is the most insightful thing that's been said all year. Cold chasing in the UK has always been a cruel hobby, but as the climate warms it has become nothing short of self torture. It's like an addiction to something toxic and harmful but we just can't seem to quit. For me personally, it has shifted slightly to chasing the sun now which has become equally as futile. It seems the warming climate is making things wetter and gloomier too. Every sun symbol that appears on my weather app gets downgraded to a partly sunny symbol then a dark one then rain as it gets nearer. 

There are so many hobbies and obssessions I can think of that give something back in terms of reward for people, even bird watching leads to seeing some actual birds. We have picked the most stressful and repeatedly disappointing passtime I can think of outside of gambling and considering the projections from scientists of what is going to happen to our winters (already is clearly) Its probably time we all just let go.

Depends on your location. Here close to leeds had next to nothing from 1997 all the way through until 2009, then in 2010 it all changed. Since then have had falls of at least 3" every other year including about six or seven 6-10" falls! At asl of only 200/300 feet two...  

So for me winters have improved drastically over last 13 years!

[Metwatch]

20 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

To show its not only the UK with cruddy winter weather and climates I shall show a yukcy forecast I have found. It somehow has similar sunshine levels to somewhere in the southern half I would guess rain days are similar but its heavier for Tofino. 

Tofino BC 

Only issue is that the wet and dull oceanic climate isn't found in many parts of the world. UK is one of the very few areas that has one. The area in British Columbia under it is also smaller than all of the UK, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands and most of France and Germany.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Metwatch

[East Lancs Rain]

After a fairly sunny day yesterday it is back to being dull and grey. Mild at 10.7°C, but not really feeling it in the breeze.

[JoeShmoe]

47 minutes ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

This is the most insightful thing that's been said all year. Cold chasing in the UK has always been a cruel hobby, but as the climate warms it has become nothing short of self torture. It's like an addiction to something toxic and harmful but we just can't seem to quit. For me personally, it has shifted slightly to chasing the sun now which has become equally as futile. It seems the warming climate is making things wetter and gloomier too. Every sun symbol that appears on my weather app gets downgraded to a partly sunny symbol then a dark one then rain as it gets nearer. 

There are so many hobbies and obssessions I can think of that give something back in terms of reward for people, even bird watching leads to seeing some actual birds. We have picked the most stressful and repeatedly disappointing passtime I can think of outside of gambling and considering the projections from scientists of what is going to happen to our winters (already is clearly) Its probably time we all just let go.

Couldn’t agree more with this. I stopped actively following all the chases to the nth degree a few years back because (as you allude to) it really is a mugs game. Instead now I just follow occasionally and only ever get interested when anything is well within 3 or 4 days out. I’ve found that way when we do see snow here ( and the east coast of Scotland where I am is more fortunate than a lot of other places) it actually feels a nice surprise . I also find following storms and warm spells equally as enjoyable  

[East Lancs Rain]

39 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

To show its not only the UK with cruddy winter weather and climates I shall show a yukcy forecast I have found. It somehow has similar sunshine levels to somewhere in the southern half I would guess rain days are similar but its heavier for Tofino. 

Tofino BC 

Wow that’s a lot of rainfall!  Makes Lancashire look dry! The summers aren’t too wet though, and the sunshine and winter/summer temperatures are similar to what you would expect on the west coast of England.

[Snowyowl9]

Heatwave today..Summer temps of 24c..

In reality its 9.4c an inversion..

[Met4Cast]

1 hour ago, trickydicky said:

To expect them to understand the ‘broad brush’, the ‘macro scale’ and a whole wagon full of 3 letter acronyms is potentially asking a little much. On top of that you also need to remember that, even if you do understand them, there’s no point in using them to forecast the weather where you live, because where you live is small. And, even if you understand that part, you have to remember that there is always another macroscale, broadbrush 3 letter acronym (probably in Asia) that overrides them anyway. And all that should have been anticipated. 

If you don't understand what "macroscale" and "broad brush" mean then I'm really not sure what to tell you.. Surely you understand the difference between macro & micro? Surely you understand that "broad" means overall, larger picture etc.. 

Your attempt to ridicule those that know more than you is quite frankly odd and not in keeping with the general theme of this forum and does nothing but highlight your own evident insecurities. 

Personally, I'm thankful for those that know far more than I do, I see it as a great opportunity to expand my own learning on a topic I'm deeply interested in. I understand that some of the technical speak likely goes over a lot of peoples heads, there are a lot on acronyms in weather, MJO, AO, QBO etc and if you're brand new to weather and know very little it can be rather daunting, but instead of being snarky & making a pointless post like the one above, why don't you attempt to learn & expand your own knowledge? 

12z runs are rolling, not expecting anything to be resolved given continued ensemble spread across all suites but hopefully we do start to at least hone in on a preferred pattern going through the Christmas period.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Met4Cast

[offerman]

41 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

 

With reference to the Iberian / Azores high pressure becoming more persistent due to Hadley cell expansion from climate change etc etc, to me that sounds more concerning for Spain itself where drought conditions could even worsen for them? I suppose if you're a British expat who has lived in the UK for many years and has moved to Spain it would be nice to have a break from the dreary UK climate but for residents in Spain I think it's concerning.

I have noticed that as well on my trip to Spain over the years, far less thunderstorms and rainfall in general. 

And even when there have been low pressure systems over the country, there was actually no evaporation to suck up clouds to deliver rainfall and storms that was actually stated in the news. It was so dry, even with low pressure there was no moisture around..

[Sweatyman]

4 hours ago, Bricriu said:

A disaster. It really feels like we could be here in mid January still looking for signs of a colder weather in the extended. I really hope met4forecast is incorrect about us having to wait till the next mjo cycle in February for cold . He has gone quiet since his last post.

like i said before. maybe a cold day or 2 in March will be it !

[TwisterGirl81]

1 hour ago, Catbrainz said:

To show its not only the UK with cruddy winter weather and climates I shall show a yukcy forecast I have found. It somehow has similar sunshine levels to somewhere in the southern half I would guess rain days are similar but its heavier for Tofino. 

Tofino BC 

I think many southern areas fair a little better than the climate above, certainly looks at least 4c-6c higher temps here than there in summer  to me this looks more similar to northern areas of the uk, it also rains there much more than many southern England areas

Edited December 17, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[Rob 79812010]

5 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Very short lived though. I get your point, would be good by today's standards. I was on college day release during that Jan 95 blizzard and remember having to walk home as all the buses were off and dad couldn't get his car out. I absolutely loved it

I was working in Leeds and had to drive back up the motorway hill to Hudds Took 7 hours but apparently Fiestas good in snow!! Was certainly a memorable one. The 80's was a funny one for Manchester away from elevation. Certainly cold, but missed out badly on some of the snow events. That bloody shadow!!! Manchester even missed out in 47 I read. 5cm max depth in town centre. I envy West Yorkshire folk!!!

[Sun Chaser]

4 hours ago, SunSean said:

Yeah the sun table is very strange this month so far. Since the pockets of clear sky have been few and far between, as soon as a location gets a sunny day, they jump right up the table! Many places in the North West, North East & Yorkshire are sitting in the top quarter so far! 

Apologies if you've already posted it recently but what are the stats looking like for Dec 2023 potentially becoming the dullest ever? It's been grim, probably worse than 2021. 

[SunSean]

2 minutes ago, Sun Chaser said:

Apologies if you've already posted it recently but what are the stats looking like for Dec 2023 potentially becoming the dullest ever? It's been grim, probably worse than 2021. 

Yeah very dull so far. the table for 1st-20th will be posted on Thursday- Keep a look out! In the mean time, 1st-10th can be found on the Sunshine watch thread.

[StingJet]

Epic!

 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

I wouldn’t object to it so much if the inflated highs actually included the UK so we could get some damned sun.

Would also be great if they didn’t miraculously vanish southwards in summer too! 
 

All too often we seem to get typical winter synoptics in summer and vice versa.

This year being perfect example. We had bouts of low pressure and cool fronts moving in every weekend throughout high summer. I think the guy who does the Met Office videos even commented on the unusualness of it at one point, because it got to about 7 or 8 weekends of low pressure in a row. 

I recall people saying on the MAD thread that if the patterns that we'd had in July had landed in, say, December or January, it would've been properly wintry and snowy conditions. 

But this is Britain and we can't have nice things. Obviously pretty much everywhere else in Europe has had proper wintry weather this December despite our 'warming world'. Wasn't it -20c or something in parts of Sweden last week? 

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Rob 79812010 said:

I was working in Leeds and had to drive back up the motorway hill to Hudds Took 7 hours but apparently Fiestas good in snow!! Was certainly a memorable one. The 80's was a funny one for Manchester away from elevation. Certainly cold, but missed out badly on some of the snow events. That bloody shadow!!! Manchester even missed out in 47 I read. 5cm max depth in town centre. I envy West Yorkshire folk!!!

I really didn't know that about Manchester in 47. Just goes to show how difficult it can be, even back then.