Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[raz.org.rain]

51 minutes ago, Don said:

That would be the third year running that Europe swelters in early January.  However, liking the cold lurking to the north east.  Could that come our way later in the month?!

More like April.

[Don]

8 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

No .

 

 

I wouldn't bet on it either!   I might just have to pay Scandi a visit early next year Becca!!

5 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

More like April.

Or June! 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Don

[sarahng]

We are forecast another horribly wet and windy day for Christmas Day - again!  I so wish it would be cold, sunny and frosty, but we just seem to fall into the rain/wind/dull/warm scenario every single year.  Fed up with it!

[Gowon]

 

On 02/12/2023 at 09:30, Andy Bown said:

Is there an official term for crystallised fog/diamond dust? I hadn’t seen it happen for about 15 years until this morning!

Sorry to drag this up again but I found this which could explain what we both experienced. 

This happened in Surrey in January:

MSN

WWW.MSN.COM

A rare phenomenon known as “industrial snowfall” appears to have occurred near Heathrow airport earlier this year, according to a study.

And this is what I experienced in Streatham South London:

Anthropogenic or industrial snowfall can occur when moisture in the air condenses around tiny particles of pollution, for example, forming snowflakes. Conditions must be just right, with sufficiently low temperatures and an abundance of moisture in the atmosphere. Only a handful of cases have been reported in the UK.

[Rob 79812010]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Last winter produced a notable cold 10 day spell 8-18 Dec. Had it occured a month or so later, it would have been quite severe.

Likewise the last week Feb and first 3 days March 18 very cold, a month earlier and possibly more so.

In an average winter, a 3-5 day cold spell with mean temps close to freezing seems the best we can hope for, in some years we don't even manage that, 13/14, 15/16, 19/20 and 21/22 for example. 

Yes, last winter you're dead right. The bit of snow in Manc stayed on ground for a week. 

[alexisj9]

46 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Think it may be similar to 'the torpedoe has been launched'

I don't get it, what's " Michael Phelps" got to do with weather.

Edited December 20, 2023 by alexisj9

[raz.org.rain]

Someone posted a chart for late May with what has to be the worst set up for late spring possible. Really is typical. Fortunately it's far enough out to be unreliable.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

I don't get it, what's " Michael Phelps" got to do with weather.

Lol I thought this was a weather forum, guess no one knows who I'm talking about, he's not an olympic swimmer, but an American storm chaser.

[Don]

3 hours ago, MP-R said:

If Jan and Feb don’t produce any goods, it’s unlikely March will either tbf without a miracle!

Lets hope it doesn't come to that this year!  

Edited December 20, 2023 by Don

[johncam]

3 hours ago, Don said:

I wouldn't bet on it either!   I might just have to pay Scandi a visit early next year Becca!!

Or June! 

On that note Don , been having  a look at a long weekend break in either Stockholm or Helsinki in Feb. Anyone been to either??

[Don]

Just now, johncam said:

On that note Don , been having  a look at a long weekend break in either Stockholm or Helsinki in Feb. Anyone been to either??

I haven't but is definitely on my list!

[johncam]

Just now, Don said:

I haven't but is definitely on my list!

Think Helsinki for a proper winter fix 

[cheeky_monkey]

Just now, Don said:

I haven't but is definitely on my list!

i would like to go to Scandinavia but only in summer or early Autumn..same with Iceland but only in mid June 

[East Lancs Rain]

6 hours ago, Airedalejoe said:

Absolutely spot on. Some would do well to read up on actual climate of the UK. Some folks understanding of the UK winter has us on a par with Oslo or Moscow!

We had a cold spell here end November into December with 3 ice days, a few inches of snow and a low of -7. I've lived through numerous winters where that was never seen no matter how rose tinted the glasses.

We've had the winters of 2009/2010, the March you mention above but our last memorable spell was February/March 2018 with intense snow and cold. Extreme for the time of year to say the least. If we got that every winter we'd have a different climate!

Photo is from March 4th 2018, 60m asl.

Exactly right. The default in winter is mild, cloudy, wet and windy, with the occasional cold snap and the occasional colder winter like 2012/13 or 2017/18. Just like the default in summer is cool, wet and cloudy, with the occasional hot spell and the occasional warm/hot summer like 2018 or 2013. So if we get a mild and wet winter and a cool and wet summer then that is normal! That is what we should be getting. A few weeks of warm/hot and sunny weather a year and a few days, maybe a week of cold/snow in winter. Anything more is a bonus. A cold and snowy winter and a hot and dry summer is the exception, not the rule. Too many people on here expect winters like in Norway or Iceland and summers like Spain or Portugal every year, and get angry when it doesn’t happen.
 

At least inland and eastern Britain can get some extremes of heat and cold. Imagine if these people lived in Lerwick or Stornaway where there’s no real cold, very little sun, loads of rain and no heat whatsoever, just 6-15C, cloudy, wet and windy all year round.

 

Looking at the climate page for Lerwick on Wikipedia really shows just how extremely moderated the climate is there. “Only when temperatures in continental areas are record cold does Lerwick experience some cold as was the case in December 2010 during the severe cold wave affecting the British Isles and Europe that covered much of mainland UK in snow. Even so, average highs remained above 3 °C (37 °F) and frosts were light. Mild summers are also rare with the warmest recorded month being July 2006 at an average high of 16 °C (61 °F).”

Lerwick - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

So in December 2010, in one of our coldest months on record, when most of the country was under deep snow and had temps below freezing by day and in minus double digits by night, it was still above freezing in Lerwick with a few light frosts. And in July 2006, the hottest summer month ever recorded in the UK, when most of the country was sweltering in relentless heat, Lerwick was experiencing nothing better than a bog standard October (or maybe a warm and sunny April) in the south.

So imagine how depressing it would be living in Lerwick! No warmth let alone heat, barely any snow or real cold and just gloomy, wet and windy all year round. A 17C calm and sunny day would be about as good as it would ever get.

Must be one of the most maritime climates in the world. We should at least be grateful we do occasionally get some proper winter and summer winter.

While I know many on here would love a continental climate with cold snowy winters and hot sunny summers, I do actually quite like our Atlantic climate. I like the cool summers and the mild winters. I like a benign British summers day of 17-21°C and partly cloudy or mostly cloudy skies. And I like the windstorms in winter. Other countries have to endure either 30+C heat and sun or extreme cold for weeks in winter/summer. Or experience natural disasters like earthquakes, hurricanes and volcanos, something we don’t get (well not to the extent that we do). So I appreciate the more comfortable temperatures in this country. Do I wish it was sunnier and drier? Absolutely. But you can’t have everything. There’s very few places in the world that have a dry, sunny and a temperate climate. The western coast of California (San Francisco, San Diego) and I imagine the west coast of Portugal is one of them however. 

It wasn’t quite cold enough here to get ice days in early December here, it still reached 1 or 2C during the day. Had a bit of snow but probably not 3 inches, and it might have got to around -6 or 7C here one night.

6 hours ago, cheese said:

Christmas Eve is looking very mild, especially to the east of high ground. 16C possibly?

To be honest, I don't mind days like today - mild, breezy, dry.

Dry?? It’s been a wet and windy day here. Surprised it’s been dry in Leeds. But you are to the east of the Pennines so you are less exposed to the Atlantic than I am. Currently 9.7°C, with gusty winds from the west. The next few days are forecast to be very wet, very windy, very mild and no sun whatsoever here. The Atlantic is in full swing with no signs of slowing down. ️

5 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Christmas day is once again looking to be mild and overcast. Can't remember the last crisp and sunny Christmas day. 

Xmas Day 2018 was dry, sunny and frosty here. I remember that.

[SunSean]

Keep seeing the dreaded "SSW" being mentioned again lately...

If it's gonna happen, it better do it pronto otherwise we can kiss goodbye to any chance of a decent Spring for the 2nd year running if it happens later on again. This year's SSW in late Feb absolutely ruined Spring IMBY!

[raz.org.rain]

26 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Exactly right. The default in winter is mild, cloudy, wet and windy, with the occasional cold snap and the occasional colder winter like 2012/13 or 2017/18. Just like the default in summer is cool, wet and cloudy, with the occasional hot spell and the occasional warm/hot summer like 2018 or 2013. So if we get a mild and wet winter and a cool and wet summer then that is normal! That is what we should be getting. A few weeks of warm/hot and sunny weather a year and a few days, maybe a week of cold/snow in winter. Anything more is a bonus. A cold and snowy winter and a hot and dry summer is the exception, not the rule. Too many people on here expect winters like in Norway or Iceland and summers like Spain or Portugal every year, and get angry when it doesn’t happen.
 

At least inland and eastern Britain can get some extremes of heat and cold. Imagine if these people lived in Lerwick or Stornaway where there’s no real cold, very little sun, loads of rain and no heat whatsoever, just 6-15C, cloudy, wet and windy all year round.

 

Looking at the climate page for Lerwick on Wikipedia really shows just how extremely moderated the climate is there. “Only when temperatures in continental areas are record cold does Lerwick experience some cold as was the case in December 2010 during the severe cold wave affecting the British Isles and Europe that covered much of mainland UK in snow. Even so, average highs remained above 3 °C (37 °F) and frosts were light. Mild summers are also rare with the warmest recorded month being July 2006 at an average high of 16 °C (61 °F).”

Lerwick - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

So in December 2010, in one of our coldest months on record, when most of the country was under deep snow and had temps below freezing by day and in minus double digits by night, it was still above freezing in Lerwick with a few light frosts. And in July 2006, the hottest summer month ever recorded in the UK, when most of the country was sweltering in relentless heat, Lerwick was experiencing nothing better than a bog standard October (or maybe a warm and sunny April) in the south.

So imagine how depressing it would be living in Lerwick! No warmth let alone heat, barely any snow or real cold and just gloomy, wet and windy all year round. A 17C calm and sunny day would be about as good as it would ever get.

Must be one of the most maritime climates in the world. We should at least be grateful we do occasionally get some proper winter and summer winter.

While I know many on here would love a continental climate with cold snowy winters and hot sunny summers, I do actually quite like our Atlantic climate. I like the cool summers and the mild winters. I like a benign British summers day of 17-21°C and partly cloudy or mostly cloudy skies. And I like the windstorms in winter. Other countries have to endure either 30+C heat and sun or extreme cold for weeks in winter/summer. Or experience natural disasters like earthquakes, hurricanes and volcanos, something we don’t get (well not to the extent that we do). So I appreciate the more comfortable temperatures in this country. Do I wish it was sunnier and drier? Absolutely. But you can’t have everything. There’s very few places in the world that have a dry, sunny and a temperate climate. The western coast of California (San Francisco, San Diego) and I imagine the west coast of Portugal is one of them however. 

It wasn’t quite cold enough here to get ice days in early December here, it still reached 1 or 2C during the day. Had a bit of snow but probably not 3 inches, and it might have got to around -6 or 7C here one night.

Dry?? It’s been a wet and windy day here. Surprised it’s been dry in Leeds. But you are to the east of the Pennines so you are less exposed to the Atlantic than I am. Currently 9.7°C, with gusty winds from the west. The next few days are forecast to be very wet, very windy, very mild and no sun whatsoever here. The Atlantic is in full swing with no signs of slowing down. ️

Xmas Day 2018 was dry, sunny and frosty here. I remember that.

With the effects of climate change becoming more evident, I'm not sure we could describe our summers as cool and wet anymore. I would say the default is mild and wet with hotter and drier breaks. Certainly the past decade has given us plenty of drier and warmer breaks, I'd expect this to become even more common over the next few years.

[al78]

19 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Too many people on here expect winters like in Norway or Iceland and summers like Spain or Portugal every year, and get angry when it doesn’t happen.

It has to be said though the weather in the UK this year has been a combination of quirky and dismal even by UK climatology standards. I went to Jotunheimen Norway for a week in July and on the first day of walking it felt like a SE England heatwave, in a mountain plateau environment at an altitude equivalent to the Cairngorms, which was not what I was expecting. Meanwhile back home the UK was in the process of having one of the wettest July's on record. Much of my holiday in Norway was characterised by good weather with the occasional overcast and showery period but nothing like the absolute grot the UK has experienced during its unsettled periods this year. The UK has just had the 12th wettest autumn on record going by HadUKP data where records go back to 1766 and December has been a very cloudy and wet month so far with no settled weather in sight.

[SunnyG]

2 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

Someone posted a chart for late May with what has to be the worst set up for late spring possible. Really is typical. Fortunately it's far enough out to be unreliable.

They can't get it right a week in advance, imagine 6 months from now... I am very positive about 2024. I bet it's going to be a wonderful year, weather-wise at least.

[SunnyG]

7 hours ago, cheese said:

Christmas Eve is looking very mild, especially to the east of high ground. 16C possibly?

To be honest, I don't mind days like today - mild, breezy, dry.

16C? Bring it on!!!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

52 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Keep seeing the dreaded "SSW" being mentioned again lately...

If it's gonna happen, it better do it pronto otherwise we can kiss goodbye to any chance of a decent Spring for the 2nd year running if it happens later on again. This year's SSW in late Feb absolutely ruined Spring IMBY!

Me too and very much agree!!

[East Lancs Rain]

54 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Keep seeing the dreaded "SSW" being mentioned again lately...

If it's gonna happen, it better do it pronto otherwise we can kiss goodbye to any chance of a decent Spring for the 2nd year running if it happens later on again. This year's SSW in late Feb absolutely ruined Spring IMBY!

Last Spring wasn’t too bad here. March was cold with some snow but I remember a lot of mild/warm and sunny weather in April and May.

39 minutes ago, al78 said:

It has to be said though the weather in the UK this year has been a combination of quirky and dismal even by UK climatology standards. I went to Jotunheimen Norway for a week in July and on the first day of walking it felt like a SE England heatwave, in a mountain plateau environment at an altitude equivalent to the Cairngorms, which was not what I was expecting. Meanwhile back home the UK was in the process of having one of the wettest July's on record. Much of my holiday in Norway was characterised by good weather with the occasional overcast and showery period but nothing like the absolute grot the UK has experienced during its unsettled periods this year. The UK has just had the 12th wettest autumn on record going by HadUKP data where records go back to 1766 and December has been a very cloudy and wet month so far with no settled weather in sight.

Imagine the moaning on here if we had a year where we got a winter like 2019/20, a spring like 2013, a summer like 2007/2012 and an autumn like 2000!

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, East Lancs Rain said:

 Just like the default in summer is cool, wet and cloudy, with the occasional hot spell and the occasional warm/hot summer like 2018 or 2013. So if we get a mild and wet winter and a cool and wet summer then that is normal! That is what we should be getting.

 

I agree with your point, but when you look at charts for the average winters in times gone by, there would at least be one semi-decent spell you could rely on. It was only the really grotty ones that didn't. Those winters always have and always will exist - and the jet stream should keep us relatively mild in the winter - but we are getting so far removed from "normality", if you can call it that, that in my opinion we are past normality. I know there is decadal variability and of course variability all through time (before naysayers get to me!) but for the current state of things I think days of normality are over.

The same applies to the summer. The average temperature in London in July and August nowadays is 24C and I imagine that'll creep up to 25C sooner rather than later. I was completely shocked that when checking the average July maxima for LA it isn't far off London, just they have warmer nights and they get a second summer in September/October. The all time max there is 43C so not far off our 40C.

[raz.org.rain]

1 hour ago, SunSean said:

Keep seeing the dreaded "SSW" being mentioned again lately...

If it's gonna happen, it better do it pronto otherwise we can kiss goodbye to any chance of a decent Spring for the 2nd year running if it happens later on again. This year's SSW in late Feb absolutely ruined Spring IMBY!

What I don't understand is how they can be so confident we'll be on the cold side, or how such extreme cold can be a good thing.

[LetItSnow!]

1 minute ago, raz.org.rain said:

What I don't understand is how they can be so confident we'll be on the cold side, or how such extreme cold can be a good thing.

If we do get one I'd be a little more confident I suppose considering when they strike with already favourable conditions they can nuke an entire winters worth of potential (Winter 2001/2002).

[Rob 79812010]

31 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

I agree with your point, but when you look at charts for the average winters in times gone by, there would at least be one semi-decent spell you could rely on. It was only the really grotty ones that didn't. Those winters always have and always will exist - and the jet stream should keep us relatively mild in the winter - but we are getting so far removed from "normality", if you can call it that, that in my opinion we are past normality. I know there is decadal variability and of course variability all through time (before naysayers get to me!) but for the current state of things I think days of normality are over.

The same applies to the summer. The average temperature in London in July and August nowadays is 24C and I imagine that'll creep up to 25C sooner rather than later. I was completely shocked that when checking the average July maxima for LA it isn't far off London, just they have warmer nights and they get a second summer in September/October. The all time max there is 43C so not far off our 40C.

Average temp in London 'nowadays' is 24! Where have you got that from? Sounds like it's based based on a couple of years