Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[Hairy Celt]

I heard Ben Rich mention 'Omega block' last night - what does this usually mean for UK weather in winter? I have a niggly memory of a very unpleasant cold, dry and gloomy spell many years ago where the only feature of interest was the increasing brown-ness of the sky with increasing air pollution.... 

[andy989]

9 minutes ago, Gowon said:

It's an inclusive thread with different opinions - what's not to like?

That’s fine, it’s the bickering! 

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, andy989 said:

That’s fine, it’s the bickering! 

Yeah' it's the stubbornness- It's fine cos we're all humans.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

The impacts from the past 2/3 weeks of nearly constant rain (accompanied by several storms with high winds) are affecting many people. This also comes off the back of the very, very wet November.

I haven't seen the mainstream news/media talking about it at all. But no doubt as soon as we get any prolonged dry, warm and sunny weather in summer, they'll be all over it like a rash lol.

Going to be a difficult time for farmers if we have a wet February or March. We desperately need a spell of dry weather that lasts longer than, well, half a day. Not just for people's wellbeing but for industry workers in agriculture who depend on their land not becoming completely flooded or turning into a bog.

More rain today, and tomorrow afternoon, but from then onwards things are looking more settled...very much hoping this is the case.

 

Edited January 3 by In Absence of True Seasons

[Catbrainz]

As it seems the model thread is the hot topic I shall give my thoughts on it all. I find it interesting how it all works but if one takes cherrypicked charts at two weeks out as gospel it only leads to disappointment. Two weeks out is often basically Alice in Wonderland levels of surrealism (I recall a GFS FI chart in March showing double digit minus temps for daytime highs) 
 

I’ll admit that I don’t quite yet understand fully all the jargon and concepts used there. I’ve learnt a lot from model threads though. 

[Rob 79812010]

I think what happens is that people interpret the charts which as you say are often wrong. What I realised is that the comments aren't really giving forecasts, they're just saying what they see. Coldies like me then pick the models which go for cold 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

8 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

As it seems the model thread is the hot topic I shall give my thoughts on it all. I find it interesting how it all works but if one takes cherrypicked charts at two weeks out as gospel it only leads to disappointment. Two weeks out is often basically Alice in Wonderland levels of surrealism (I recall a GFS FI chart in March showing double digit minus temps for daytime highs) 
 

I’ll admit that I don’t quite yet understand fully all the jargon and concepts used there. I’ve learnt a lot from model threads though. 

Pretty much my sentiments exactly! Forecasting in this country is notoriously difficult given our climate and geographical positioning. Nothing is concrete until 2/3 days out at most imo, and even then, the forecasts can - and do - change on the night before, or even the day of. Seen it many times.

I tend not to post in there as A) I'm not meteorologically knowledgeable enough in terms of the specifics and terminology etc, and B) it's genuinely difficult to keep up with the thread at this time of year! You'll go for lunch and come back to 6 new pages of posts

[CryoraptorA303]

The Sun is out intermittently and the cloud is far too patchy for any rain today. The wettest is probably over. Feels more like the beginning of March though with birds singing and still at 12.3°C.

[East Lancs Rain]

On 02/01/2024 at 11:30, tricol said:

Yip, the amount of rain is crazy. I went for a road bike ride yesterday, I've never seen so many fields and roads flooded. I can't see any dry period coming to be honest. It's rain after rain, and now another storm. How many named storms do we usually get in a year? Feels like we've had more than the average so far.

Dry weather is coming! A big pattern change is on the way. 

 

On 02/01/2024 at 12:12, CryoraptorA303 said:

Also of note, it looks like there's a big SE/NW divide in terms of the second half of the year. Here at the east coast September was very sunny, very dry and extremely warm. I can only remember about four overcast days in the entire month for my area. The first two weeks of October were similar. We still had green trees in the third week of October before the autumn fall finally began, and it only really finished in the first week of December. A lot of the hedges have completely failed to go into winter and are holding on to their orange leaves. Honestly I think a lot of the fall in November only happened because of the extreme rain and wind blowing the leaves off, otherwise we'd still have browning trees now similar to the hedges. There's even a little bit of green on one hedge row outside Absolute failure of the colder season to take hold.

The only oceanic climates in the world drier than London and East Anglia are highly continental shifted ones that are borderline semi-arid.

Interesting to compare Londons and Romes climate. Rome much warmer year round. Rome has almost double the sunshine. Rome has slightly higher annual rainfall but it’s spread out among fewer days, which explains why Sunny G perceived Rome as being drier. What’s also interesting is that the all time highest temperature records are very similar in Rome and London, despite Romes summers being much hotter.

 

Yes the last few months have been very wet here, the only breaks we’ve had from the rain are in parts of August, early September, a few days in early October and a week or two late November and early December. Hopefully it will be an easterly spring and summer next year, brining the best conditions to the west. Wouldn’t mind a repeat of summer 2021.

On 02/01/2024 at 11:18, Weather-history said:

The second half of 2023 has been largely terrible and that includes that September. It looks as though it has been the  wettest second half of a year since 1954 for our region.

I agree but I don’t think September was too bad, yes the second half was quite unsettled but it was still quite warm and that tremendous first week.. Glorious sunshine every day and highs of around 26/27°C in the NW region, although even hotter down south, I was on holiday in the Cotswolds in the first week and some days reached 30°C, one day was 31°C!

On 02/01/2024 at 11:24, Petorious said:

Literally in shock today thinking at just how much rain we have had and its still chucking it down, I don't think I remember in life it being this wet for so long! We need a couple of months of pretty calm dry weather now but I don't hold much hope. 

Yes it’s still raining here.. Currently 7.4°C with 90% humidity, not warm enough to feel mild but nowhere near cold enough for snow. But a run of the CFS monthlies is showing a some drier months ahead and an interesting rest of the winter.. March looks quite cold and wintery before a drier April, May and June.

 

Its forecast to turn much colder but also much drier and brighter. Not of fan of the cold but I’ll take it over what we’ve had as it’s just been blanket grey and raining every day for sooooooooooo long now!

[CryoraptorA303]

17 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

The impacts from the past 2/3 weeks of nearly constant rain (accompanied by several storms with high winds) are affecting many people. This also comes off the back of the very, very wet November.

I haven't seen the mainstream news/media talking about it at all. But no doubt as soon as we get any prolonged dry, warm and sunny weather in summer, they'll be all over it like a rash lol.

Going to be a difficult time for farmers if we have a wet February or March. We desperately need a spell of dry weather that lasts longer than, well, half a day. Not just for people's wellbeing but for industry workers in agriculture who depend on their land not becoming completely flooded or turning into a bog.

More rain today, and tomorrow afternoon, but from then onwards things are looking more settled...very much hoping this is the case.

 

It's not often that I agree we need prolonged dry but this time we really do need a bit of Sun to start getting rid of the excess water.

[Catbrainz]

1 minute ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Pretty much my sentiments exactly! Forecasting in this country is notoriously difficult given our climate and geographical positioning. Nothing is concrete until 2/3 days out at most imo, and even then, the forecasts can - and do - change on the night before, or even the day of. Seen it many times.

I tend not to post in there as A) I'm not meteorologically knowledgeable enough in terms of the specifics and terminology etc, and B) it's genuinely difficult to keep up with the thread at this time of year! You'll go for lunch and come back to 6 new pages of posts

lol yes it’s very active in the winter. It’s moderately active in summer but basically dead in the shoulder seasons. 

[CryoraptorA303]

2 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Interesting to compare Londons and Romes climate. Rome much warmer year round. Rome has almost double the sunshine. Rome has slightly higher annual rainfall but it’s spread out among fewer days, which explains why Sunny G perceived Rome as being drier. What’s also interesting is that the all time highest temperature records are very similar in Rome and London, despite Romes summers being much hotter.

That'll be because we're much closer to the firing range of hot Sahara air, so despite the hotter climate, we get similar extremes in terms of absolute high temperatures. It's been noted that our extremes are increasing much faster than the baseline climate.

4 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Wouldn’t mind a repeat of summer 2021.

I think you just filled every southern warmie with indescribable rage Although personally as summer 2021 wasn't intensely wet and there was enough warmth/lack of extreme mild for people to not be constantly moaning about it like this July then I wouldn't be complaining.

The main reason for me to hate the second half of 2023 so much isn't really because I had any issues with it aside from the September heatwave etc., but more so because the constant whinging, both here and in real life, over July and early August became unbearable to listen to. Not that I don't understand it, but it became intensely boring. Later on after the second half of October it did become dire and the near constant dullness and rain has really started to reflect in the attitudes of the public, and I have to deal with said attitudes as part of my job and its becoming increasingly unpleasant.

16 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Its forecast to turn much colder but also much drier and brighter. Not of fan of the cold but I’ll take it over what we’ve had as it’s just been blanket grey and raining every day for sooooooooooo long now!

We'll be lucky to get a freezing night down south with this but I'm welcoming the change nonetheless. January 2024 should be significantly less dull and wet than the last few months. Seems like its going to be one of those winters where the north gets all the cold, at least the little that does materialise

[ANYWEATHER]

Saw a Shiny UFO like thingy in the sky this morning, but now it’s raining ️ AGAIN

[cheese]

29 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

What’s also interesting is that the all time highest temperature records are very similar in Rome and London, despite Romes summers being much hotter.

The UK does have very impressive record high temperatures in summer relative to the average. The record high of 39.8C at Bramham (Leeds) is about 18 degrees higher than the average July maximum. The only other places with such a big difference between the average high and record high are other maritime climates - like Melbourne, San Francisco, Seattle etc.

Edited January 3 by cheese

[In Absence of True Seasons]

6 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I think you just filled every southern warmie with indescribable rage Although personally as summer 2021 wasn't intensely wet and there was enough warmth/lack of extreme mild for people to not be constantly moaning about it like this July then I wouldn't be complaining.

Summer 2021 was pretty awful in my area, accompanied by an absolutely dire late Spring season. Nothing properly warm, dry and sunny until the heatwave in June, and then it was just a mixed bag of conditions with nothing really summery for longer than a couple of days max. Standout memories include a washout hiking/camping trip in Dartmoor, and watching the England v France Euro final game in an outdoor venue whilst it rained the entire evening. Lol.

From other posters' sentiments on here, August was apparently woeful for anyone who enjoys sun and warmth too, but I escaped the bulk of it with a 3 week holiday in Spain, so can't really comment on that. 

I'd rather have a 2018 Summer again! Far superior for useability.

[Mullet]

1 hour ago, Hairy Celt said:

I heard Ben Rich mention 'Omega block' last night - what does this usually mean for UK weather in winter? I have a niggly memory of a very unpleasant cold, dry and gloomy spell many years ago where the only feature of interest was the increasing brown-ness of the sky with increasing air pollution.... 

I've seen many get excited over the prospect of an Omega Block in years gone by, as I think if the high sets up in the Atlantic it can mean Easterlies and uber-snow. I think it's two low-pressure systems flanking a blocking high, so I guess surface conditions depend on where it sets up? Your memory sounds like we were stuck under the high? I'm pretty rubbish with the science to be fair.

Hopefully we're not in for weeks of bone-chilling cold and snow. A quick drop of snow and a rapid thaw is my bag these days!

[SussexSnowman]

2 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

After 2/3 hours of partly sunny, dry weather this morning, lo and behold, the rain has returned once again!

We did have a break from it for about 10 hours, so can't complain eh...

This climate is a joke.

I have to say the climate like the government and current living standards is just crap. Nothing Great in Great Britain and that really adds to the what feels like a bleak time in our history. Feels like we are getting the worst of everything at the moment. I really want the weather to be our friend in need and it ain't happening. Truly crud weather last few months. 

[Metwatch]

I just hope the high pressure will center itself over England rather than just north of the UK next week. Gentle easterly breezes especially winter and early spring I find them quite annoying; don't see much snow showers here even when easterlies are stronger or colder air brought in, and instead low cloud filth from North Sea is brought in. High pressure overhead could at least bring a higher chance of clear skies or nice looking inversions and fog / mist in the morning.

 

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Summer 2021 was pretty awful in my area, accompanied by an absolutely dire late Spring season. Nothing properly warm, dry and sunny until the heatwave in June, and then it was just a mixed bag of conditions with nothing really summery for longer than a couple of days max. Standout memories include a washout hiking/camping trip in Dartmoor, and watching the England v France Euro final game in an outdoor venue whilst it rained the entire evening. Lol.

From other posters' sentiments on here, August was apparently woeful for anyone who enjoys sun and warmth too, but I escaped the bulk of it with a 3 week holiday in Spain, so can't really comment on that. 

I'd rather have a 2018 Summer again! Far superior for useability.

There was a thread set up last spring of poor spring and summer combinations and I brought up 2021, as it had not a great spring and quite a mediocre summer. Probably the poorest spring and summer combined in quite a while, perhaps even a little worse than 2023 for sunshine, warmth and dryness.

Edited January 3 by Metwatch

[cheese]

Summer 2021 was decent enough here. June had average sunshine, above average temperatures and below average rainfall. July had above average rainfall but also above average sunshine and temperatures. August was a bit poor with below average temperatures and sunshine, but rainfall was also below average. I definitely enjoyed that summer more than 2023.
 

Edited January 3 by cheese

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Just been in the mad thread. Now I need a migraine pill and some valium ...

[The Enforcer]

Fax charts show trapped fronts

another wet HP?

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Just been in the mad thread. Now I need a migraine pill and some valium ...

Lightweight!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

Lightweight!

I've been in there every day since the 5th of forever! ... It's the same idiots posting a thousand times over that drive me mad. And Mr I am king of the thread with million and one pictures and 50+ likes. ARgh!

[CryoraptorA303]

Very hot (or cold?) take here, as someone in the south who was not on the warm end of 2021, I thoroughly enjoyed that summer apart from the intense rainfall in July. The May was diabolical though, I hated that. June was quite pleasantly warm for the most part and had some very interesting skies, and there was a couple weeks of sun and warmth in July that wasn't too hot to enjoy. I remember from the 12-16th July me and a mate went to Devon for the week and it was significantly sunnier and warmer than the SE had been up to that point, which was quite a surprise. When we got back it appears to have temporarily have spread to the SE before the rains came in. August 2021 was dull but was actually quite a bit drier than average, and where I am we did quite frequently see dashes of blue; certainly nowhere near as wet as July 2023 or as diabolical as last December has been. It was also still reaching 20+°C most days. Overall a very gentle and pleasant August that is one of the best in my memory, up there with August 2009.

What I do find funny though is a bit like this year, immediately into September it warmed up quite considerably and reached several degrees higher than August had (I think up to 31°C somewhere), and overall September 2021 was one of the warmest on record in the SE and could've easily been the August before it and August the September.

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I've been in there every day since the 5th of forever! ... It's the same idiots posting a thousand times over that drive me mad. And Mr I am king of the thread with million and one pictures and 50+ likes. ARgh!

Chill, girl.. Why don't you just read the ones you like, then?