Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[I remember Atlantic 252]

we have 2 'chat' /moans threads now?

[stewfox]

8 hours ago, Iceni said:

Because it's the wrong type of snow. It's supposed to be a thing of the past… "Children will never see snow again." Said one 'expert' in 2000.

To be fair that was Mike Rimington talking to a class in Singapore

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Another day of sheer, unrelenting darkness / dullness in SE England. Oh, no rain though, so at least there's that eh.

Will it end? I'm honestly not sure - I'm thinking we may have to wait until Spring to actually see the sun for longer than a couple of hours. This seems to be the stuck-in pattern for Winter 2023/24. Never seen anything like it. Today and the weekend was forecasted to be dry and sunny as of a couple of days back, but as per usual, got downgraded at the last moment to just be overcast again. 

Even next week in my area during the 'cold snap' is changed from sunny to 'sun and cloud' which no doubt by Sunday afternoon will become mostly cloudy or fully cloudy.

A little pessimistic perhaps, but I've lost count of the amount of times I've been burned in 2023 by sunny forecasts becoming dull, cloudy ones at the last minute. By this point, I believe nothing until I look out the window and see the sun with my own eyes. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

53 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

we have 2 'chat' /moans threads now?

I'm a tad confused tbh. I think the other one was set up as there were some people making comments (in jest) about the MOD thread, but it now looks to be a separate 'moans' thread about the weather and the models...which most people just do in here anyway, as it makes sense as its the general winter chat. Not sure if its meant to be one thread for 'positive' comments and the other for 'negative ones'?

[LetItSnow!]

Checked the model output today for the first time in about 24 hours and I was expecting grim charts with the response I saw but in reality it was one slightly different run which had a slower evolution at day eleven. All still looks good to me.

[stewfox]

16 hours ago, stewfox said:

Oslo max 22c tomorrow 

That's -22c

For newbies not 22c . That would make headlines as well

 

Stewart 

 

[Gowon]

1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

Oh come on, holy strawman of strawmans.

Let's do a quick set of corrections:

Hot sunny weather = Reported if record-breaking or near record-breaking (which is often)

Cold freezing weather = Reported if record-breaking or near record-breaking (which is almost never these days)

(note that I've just been on the BBC website, and there's a front page article on the flooding, and under the European news section there was a feature on the cars stuck in snow in Sweden, which I think I saw on the front page yesterday)

Carbon dioxide = Excess human-added CO2 which is out of balance, bad, the pre-existing 280ppm or thereabouts, no problem and absolutely required for photosynthesis etc.

Net zero = An amazing scheme that funnels more taxpayers money to those already wealthy but totally deserving elites/politicians, except those that are in the pay of the oil and gas industry, which is oh most of them. The oil lobby is exactly the same as the tobacco industry, promoting misinformation for decades to try to maintain their own profit margin, and the cost of who knows how many people's lives.

Cow farts = A small but significant contributor to the overall greenhouse effect

Ever building Urban Heat Island effect = Accounted for, and doesn't explain why the oceans, and rural areas, are warming as well

Gigantic pulsating ball of plasma in the sky/ AKA Sun = Varies with a very small amplitude of about 0.1%, and so whilst we need it to live, its effects on modern climate change are both accounted for and very small compared to other factors.

Was there anything else?

And also, just to make the point, it's very rare that I start a climate change discussion on this forum in a thread that's not dedicated to it. But you can't start one by throwing out what is frankly a whole load of easily debunked misinformation and strawmanning, and expect not to be called out on it.

 

Hasn't the MAR geothermal activity been increasing lately?... Where does all that energy go?

[MP-R]

It’s actually sunny here today! Unbelievable scenes.

[The Enforcer]

11 hours of rain yesterday leading to dozens of local road closures and the forecasted sunny day today is filled with cloud.

[Iceni]

2 hours ago, stewfox said:

To be fair that was Mike Rimington talking to a class in Singapore

No. It was Professor Vine, published in the Independent.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

13 minutes ago, MP-R said:

It’s actually sunny here today! Unbelievable scenes.

Lucky for some...

Beautiful view from my window. Looks the same as it has done the last 4 weeks.

[MP-R]

17 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Lucky for some...

Beautiful view from my window. Looks the same as it has done the last 4 weeks.

Looks familiar . Hopefully the clear sky filters eastwards by the weekend!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

40 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Looks familiar . Hopefully the clear sky filters eastwards by the weekend!

Not sure it's too likely! Sun+cloud being downgraded to just cloud.

The story of 2023 (and beyond, lol) for the SE. Such a dull 12 months in my area.

Edited January 5 by In Absence of True Seasons

[The Enforcer]

I wonder how much of the average monthly totals for January has fallen in the first 4 days of the month?

[Josh Rubio]

I know you shouldn’t pay too much attention to automated weather forecasts but I’m seeing a gradual change from sunny spells to full dull cloudy days. 
 

Is this going to be a ‘not quite as cold and sunny as first expected’ type of spell? 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

I know you shouldn’t pay too much attention to automated weather forecasts but I’m seeing a gradual change from sunny spells to full dull cloudy days. 
 

Is this going to be a ‘not quite as cold and sunny as first expected’ type of spell? 

I'm expecting drizzle/low cloud for my area, north sea filth type setup

[East Lancs Rain]

21 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

A real geographic split today. 

Heavy rain for basically everyone in Southern England. Pleasant conditions for everyone else. 

Very much been the trend the last few weeks. Southern England getting the worst of the dross, as it's milder (which means more rain and more cloud). If I recall, parts of Scotland had the most sunshine in December.

It definitely wasn’t pleasant here. It’s been terrible up here as well, loads of rain, gloomy every day and barely any sun. Yesterday was mostly dry here but still very overcast. Today is slightly better, actually had a bit of sunshine earlier today but now it’s fully overcast. It has stayed dry though which is something and the temperature is close to average at 6.6°C currently.

18 hours ago, stewfox said:

Oslo max 22c tomorrow 

You mean -22 lol. Before I clicked on the screenshot I actually thought Olso had recorded a high of +22C in winter lol.

4 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Actually sunny here today! Did some gardening yesterday while the weather is mild but of course, as soon as I got stuck in, the heavens opened. So bored of rain. Looks like a significant change to much colder weather from Sunday, but only limited potential for snow. -4°C maximum on Monday, will certainly feel like winter 

I’m guessing that’s in Prague and not in the UK, I don’t think anywhere is forecast to get that cold in the UK. Although many places will only see maximums in mid single digits and some frosty nights which is colder than it has been.

6 hours ago, al78 said:

Change the record. We have had plenty of media reports of extreme cold in the past, mostly when it affects the U.S because media reports are heavily biased to where the wealth is and where people like us live. It is not going to make much of a media story that a country traditionally thought of as very cold at this time of year with a very low population density is experiencing exceptionally cold weather. 

Yes, there have been reports of extreme cold in the past, especially in the US as you said. I remember watching on the news a few years ago they covered an extremely cold spell of weather in the US. A man threw a bucket of water into the air and it instantly froze. Amazing to see. But these days they much more often report on extreme heat and drought than extreme cold. There is definitely a bias.

5 hours ago, SunSean said:

Here we go again... 

We get it, the world is coming to an end, most places will be underwater and London will be part of the Med in a few years. 

Things I've definitely learned-

Hot sunny weather = Terrifying/End of days- reported always

Cold freezing weather = Safe/idealistic for mankind- rarely reported, if ever

Carbon dioxide = horrific waste that plants absolutely can live without and needs to be eradicated- Screw photosynthesis

Net zero = An amazing scheme that funnels more taxpayers money to those already wealthy but totally deserving elites/politicians

Cow farts = The grim reaper of mankind

Ever building Urban Heat Island effect = Totally irrelevant

Gigantic pulsating ball of plasma in the sky/ AKA Sun = Totally irrelevant

But most of all, the number 1 rule- it is all OUR FAULT and we must ALL be made to pay

Also, I'm not stating that the world isn't warming but rather the fact that we're told it is a catastrophe, that we must all panic constantly and that we are all to blame. I try to ignore posts on climate change but when insults are thrown at "Non believers" or "deniers" as they are called then I just can't resist!

Anyway, I'm sure this post will be removed but enjoy your day, I won't be getting into any debates because I can't be hypnotised into thinking the Earth is on it's last legs 

If anyone replies to me saying how wrong I am, how much of a denier I am or how I can not obey the words of the rich & powerful then I will ignore and move on with my day. You choose to live in fear, I shall choose to live in peace.

I couldn’t agree more. The media constantly bang on about it everytime we have a hot spell or a few weeks without rain in summer. I don’t deny the climate is warming up but I do deny that we are responsible for it. There have been scientists who have said that the increase in temperature has caused the increase in carbon dioxide, and not the other way around. They want us to give up our cars, give up eating meat, give up on going on international holidays, want us to use less central heating and install ineffective heat pumps and be cold, all in the name of saving the earth.

On 04/01/2024 at 13:18, Methuselah said:

But the ceramic heaters do work, so long as you live in an insulated new-build flat like I do. But even I will resort to my gas central-heating should the weather turn nasty.

But anyway, should you be living in an old-fashioned abode, with an empty cavity wall, no double-glazing and an uninsulated loft, you'll be paying a fortune to the Energy Cartels.

My C&G in HVAC does have some use, after all! 

Well maybe they work quite well if you live in a modern well insulated house with small rooms in the south, during mild winter weather, but the claims they are making are just extremely exaggerated and flat out false. Maybe in a few decades, with the improvement of insulation and the winters getting ever milder, central heating won’t be necesssary anymore in the south, with just a gas fire in the living room and a couple of space heaters on standby needed for the occasional cold snap. I think AC will become more necessary in the south and south east though due to our hotter summers with more extreme heat spikes.

On 04/01/2024 at 12:38, CryoraptorA303 said:

I actually agree with this. The media only wants to talk about the hot and dry extremes to drive the narrative that climate change will make the UK a drier, sunnier place so that the notoriously warm-oriented British continue to welcome the idea of climate change and don't become concerned with it as they should be. It's rarely mentioned in popular media that climate change will also destroy our winters and make our autumns significantly wetter and duller, and severe flooding will become much more commonplace as it already is. Of course the wet-related effects are readily talked about in more scientific circles.

I disagree, but to be honest I’m quite happy that we’re getting warmer summers and milder winters. Too many cool, rainy summers in this part of the world. If climate change means we get more summer 2018’s and less summer 2007/2012’s then from a personal point of view I’m quite happy about it, and if the south has to suffer then so be it…

On 04/01/2024 at 12:48, CryoraptorA303 said:

When did I say that? LOL! If anything they hype them up and promote outright misinformation like that one.

They do the same in summer as well, I heard with the “record breaking temperatures“ in Greece, they reported the ground temperatures as the air temperature and I also heard the wildfires were started deliberately…

[In Absence of True Seasons]

31 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

I’m seeing a gradual change from sunny spells to full dull cloudy d

Is this going to be a ‘not quite as cold and sunny as first expected’ type of spell? 

We live in Cloudland, so of course

[raz.org.rain]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Oh dear oh dear. Can't say I'm disappointed, severe cold is not a good thing whatsoever.

 

But at least it's stopped raining here. Still overcast and cold, but no rain.

[East Lancs Rain]

39 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

I know you shouldn’t pay too much attention to automated weather forecasts but I’m seeing a gradual change from sunny spells to full dull cloudy days. 
 

Is this going to be a ‘not quite as cold and sunny as first expected’ type of spell? 

Looks like it. Now looking less sunny and less cold. But this is the UK so..

[matt111]

Finally a day of, at least mostly, blue skies. Can't remember the last time that happened. Also nice that it finally feels a bit more seasonal. 

[Atleastitwillbemild]

Well as others have said: this cold spell is fizzling out into a bit of a pathetic non-event isn't it? Who could have possibly have forseen that? What a shocker!

Big, fat, lump of high pressure, winds from the east and STILL:
Temps well above freezing at night for most of the week here in Wiltshire. Somehow seeing rain again this evening after looking forward to today being the start of some much needed respite. Murky gloom and high cloud being forecasted for a lot of this week as others have said, a major downgrade in sunshine levels in the forecast: surprise, surprise, surprise.

Not like they've been consistently inaccurate with their forecasts for clear/sunny weather throughout the whole of 2023 or anything. I don't even bother to take any promises of sunny spells seriously anymore. I fully expect them to disappear/downgrade and they always reliably do. 
I was once chastised by somone on here for not appreciating the massive leaps and bound meteorology has taken towards knowledge and accuracy over the past 30 years but tbh; I can't see any evidence of that whatsoever. Can't even guarantee a sunny day 5 days in advance. I'm pretty sure they were actually more accurate about that 20 years ago. 

Well looks like we're nailed on for the kind of "cold spell" that would have been considered pleasantly mild 15 years ago with plenty of grey dull cloud to replenish our serotonin stores and probably the odd bit of rain just to ensure we don't lose that healthy mould growing on the inside of our lungs. 

This is what we get for wetting our knickers and licking our lips like a dog at a barbecue over all these delicous coldmageddon charts that were never going to verify. Despite all the assurances that it was "nailed on". Another lesson absolutely none of us will learn. 

Edited January 5 by Atleastitwillbemild

[Atleastitwillbemild]

3 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Lucky for some...

Beautiful view from my window. Looks the same as it has done the last 4 weeks.

Im not sure why I "liked" that, I guess it was a like of sympathy. It really is just a f*****g joke isn't it? Sorry man

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, East Lancs Rain said:

I disagree, but to be honest I’m quite happy that we’re getting warmer summers and milder winters. Too many cool, rainy summers in this part of the world. If climate change means we get more summer 2018’s and less summer 2007/2012’s then from a personal point of view I’m quite happy about it, and if the south has to suffer then so be it…

Unfortunately this selfish mindset is far too rife in this country. No one thinks about anyone else What exactly do we do when it becomes too hot and winters too wet for us down here, let alone people further south in Europe. What do the Spanish and Greeks do when they become more like northern Africa? What do north Africans do when the Sahara becomes uninhabitible to human life? What do the well over billion people on the Indian subcontinent do when that becomes a wet bulb in the hot season and totally uninhabitable?

But hey, as long as you're happy in your little corner of the world, who cares about what the rest of humanity has to contend with?

Also bolded, those summers were made wetter by climate change! You get more summer 2018s but you also get more July 2023s and December 2023s. If you want the UK to have a significant flood burden then go right ahead

1 hour ago, East Lancs Rain said:

There have been scientists who have said that the increase in temperature has caused the increase in carbon dioxide, and not the other way around.

Those scientists are few and far between and are wrong. The increase in carbon dioxide began in the 1750s with the start of the industrial revolution and the global temperature began increasing around 100 years later, and the warming has violently accelerated since the 70s. This view is total nonsense.

"A few" scientists do not hold the same weight as ~99.7%, 98.7%, 99.3% or whatever figure you want to use of scientists who agree (not believe) climate change is real and caused principally or entirely by humans. Nor do the beliefs and opinions of any scientists or anyone have any bearing on the scientific consensus.

But hey, anything to avoid the reality that you want us to cause a mass extinction just so you can have warmer summers and milder winters in your very small corner of the world instead of, I don't know, moving south from a climate you apparently so viscerally hate.

We need to stop pretending that it's okay to have this absolutely ignorant and disgusting attitude about climate change. It is not okay to suggest the homes of billions of people becoming uninhabitable and the subsequent fallout of that is a worthy sacrifice so your corner of the world that will hopefully not face complete disaster from climate change in comparison can have some warmer summers and anyone who finds themselves agreeing with that view needs to have a good hard look in the mirror. How would you feel if climate change was going to spell near-certain disaster for your home, whether that be biblical flooding, disastrous heatwaves or unimaginable droughts, or some combination of those three, and some idiot in Iceland or Lapland said the destruction of your home and everything you've ever known doesn't matter, because they will enjoy warmer summers and milder winters, or "there's benefits to climate change (for us, not you but I don't care!)"? You'd think that person is disgusting right? Well, that's a discussion for you to have with yourself.

3 hours ago, Gowon said:

Hasn't the MAR geothermal activity been increasing lately?... Where does all that energy go?

I have no idea what that even is, and no, geothermal activity cannot account for this, not even close. Where do you suggest all the carbon dioxide is coming from? Geothermal activity mostly emits methane and sulphur-based compounds, not carbon dioxide. Not to mention, no, geothermal and volcanic activity is not significantly increasing, it is almost unchanged since the 19th century, and this is via confirmed eruptions, so this doesn't even account for potentially missing data from earlier times. Furthermore, in previous volcanism-mediated warming events, it has taken volcanic activity hundreds of thousands of years to emit as much of a net carbon positive into the atmosphere as it has taken us 200 years to emit. In the P-E thermal maximum for instance, it took over 200,000 years. In the P-T extinction (otherwise known as the Great Dying), the process took several million years and multiple pulses of warming. The warming we have observed in the last century has taken thousands of times less years to occur.

These excuses I see parroted on here are absolute hogwash. People really need to wake up and accept human-caused climate change is as much of a reality as the Earth being a globe. Trying to suggest otherwise is the literal intellectual equivalent of denying the shape of the Earth. You are a flat earther if you parrot claims like this. The case is closed, there is no debate and hasn't been for five decades now. Carbon dioxide released by humans is the only notable cause of warming in the present era. All other natural factors point to an overall cooling if anything from 1750 onwards, yet that isn't happening and never has as long as we've been emitting carbon into the atmosphere.

[stewfox]

Will I get a frost in this epic cold spell.

I'd say 50 50