Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[John88B]

48 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Increasingly convinced we will see some deep cold arriving on our shores before Christmas. The models keep hinting and then dropping the block holding out, but only a matter of time before their default disappears and they start to show some excitingly cold charts which more closely support the back ground signals !    

I agree, this combined with the met offices extended forecast for late December talking of a possible longer cold spell makes me believe we could be in for something rather special for those of a cold persuasion. The last time I heard the met office talk of cold a month ahead was 2010!

Not saying it will happen or be as severe as 2010 but fascinating model watching in store for the month ahead  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ec 46 looks pretty interesting. Those ec ens i must admit Hemisphericaly speaking have me almost  as excited as!!!!!!! Not gonna say the year So many blocking options and again so many show the pv to be in trouble.. Could this be the year it never rages and never gets time to settle down...I think it could be.

Onwards and upwards  

Edited December 1, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Frigid]

ECM, GFS and ICON all have a scandi high setup sometime in the 2nd week of December. Yes it's 10 days away but still quite interesting they're all showing this, especially w/ support from EC46. Remember, GFS and ECM have been playing around with this pattern quite often. Maybe, just maybe this breakdown will be as brief as some cold snaps have been over the past few years. One can hope.

    

Look at those charts, so much potential! 

[northwestsnow]

I'm not sure how much confidence I have in EC46 but the signal for that block seems to be growing ...

[blizzard81]

36 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

It has to be said, a few juicy outliers aside, the De Bilt plume is a firm downgrade for wintry cold compared to this morning and yesterday, from mid-term to the end. Slowly moving to average December temperatures.
But with -3C on the thermometer and ice forming on the garden pond, I can live with that for now.

Screams...... 'Uncertainty' like the Exeter update today. Like Matt Wolves alluded to just now. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm not sure how much confidence I have in EC46 but the signal for that block seems to be growing ...

Hey mate like many on here..your confidence drops when it's going blocked...but increases when it goes zonal

Seriously NW I'm liking the jibe to this Winter...the models are already hinting at what we could be rewarded with! Well rewards if your a cold chaser.. but a bloody nightmare if your a mild lover and likes to save one's pennies

Edited December 1, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm is very two faced......

[northwestsnow]

ICON 108

[damianslaw]

Both ECM and GFS are suggesting low pressure filling over the UK as we enter mid month period 10th onwards with heights building to the NE. All very plausible, potentially very snowy on northern high ground after a brief milder south westerly airflow 7-9th. A cold trough signal mid month ties in with monthly anomaly forecasts, with the trough in time shunted south and south east...

 

Edited December 1, 2023 by damianslaw

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON 108

That's at 96 NWS

here at 108,...the trough is elongating and running out of juice,...def more trough disruption.

18z 108 v's 12z 114.

 

Edited December 1, 2023 by Allseasons-Si
added text

[Allseasons-Si]

Come on ICON,...you have another 12hrs shift to put in yet

stuck at 108.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

That is one huge monster high at 1051 on the EPS at 216

Edited December 1, 2023 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

That is one huge monter high at 1051 on the EPS at 216

That will put huge pressure on the strat, incidentally, big reduction in zonal winds, and big increase in members going for SSW early Jan today:

[Ali1977]

Another shift north on the Monday morning snow 

 

As the cold air cuts back in the snow chances could move back south - I still think Monday could be really really good for some!! 

Edited December 1, 2023 by Ali1977

[CoventryWeather]

Clusters at 120-168 seem decent on 3 clusters. Definitely an interest in trying to slide the lows into Europe on a few of them.

Also the gfs is an outlier early on - has the low much further north whilst the icon has trended a tad south. A big snow event is still possible on Sunday and Monday. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by CoventryWeather

[Day_9]

4 hours ago, LRD said:

They're a minority but some members of the GFS ensemble suite see the 850s plunging towards mid-December. Not the full set...

They’re gathering numbers.  This is not going to be straightforward 

[Purga]

The cold block to the NE is ever stronger on the 18z

[blizzard81]

Brick wall is gaining more traction. 

[minus10]

Yes...spot the same?

[blizzard81]

Pub run lock in special coming up?

[Purga]

Getting very close to an easterly

[Mark wheeler]

12 minutes ago, Purga said:

The cold block to the NE is ever stronger on the 18z

It always seems to be . What the 12zs and 18zs give the 00zs Take away. Sincerely hope I am wrong. Just always seems the case .

[Allseasons-Si]

Pac Man on steroids this ha ha

seriously though,...are we going to get a cut off low to our SE,that would be nice.

Edit: going for it...

Edited December 1, 2023 by Allseasons-Si

[Dennis]

after 10th 

 

[Ali1977]

Well in just over a week we might be on the cusp of another cold spell, albeit the 850s aren’t quite there on this run - however anything from the east will quickly get colder!! Maybe we don’t have to wait till week 4!!

If we can get another block and an easterly mid month prior to the MJO being favourable then watch out - a severe prolonged cold spell could becoming quite likely - and it couldn’t be better timing  

 

This is only 10 days away, and could be an epic FI - obviously not to be taken too seriously at this stage!!  

Edited December 1, 2023 by Ali1977