Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Allseasons-Si said:

Here we go,..heights pushing into Greenland,...is this the start of a new chase?

Mid December 2010 redux.

Yes please.

[bluearmy]

This 18z not too far from the same evolution as the 12z eps control 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Mid December 2010 redux.

Yes please.

Had me thinking the same

Edited December 4, 2023 by Allseasons-Si

[minus10]

Yes....getting there...

[on the coast]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

This 18z not too far from the same evolution as the 12z eps control 

A cold pattern to set in now from the 16th. Can Imagine some Nirvana charts to start appearing from now on.

[Derecho]

I wonder what the peak SLP is there over Greenland? Probably a little toppler northerly this one or heading further east as the highest thicknesses remain to the west of the UK rather then moving to Greenland... but nice to see some amplification. Doesn't tie in with the phase 7 composite expected around that time though!

Edit: I stand corrected, typical GFS pub run.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Derecho

[MATTWOLVES 3]

24 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Don't be stupid ... It's entrenched they said ... Won't fall for that one again will we either!!?

Beka the talk was of deep cold air entrenched over scandy being hard to shift as it had been in place for several weeks. We had mainly surface cold air that had been in place for several days which would be a lot easier to push back.

Keep in mind we had no real forcing of the pattern to back this up...the cold spell probably coming about due to a wave break. If we were to get cold locked into place with a big Scandinavia High pressure backing it up or strong Heights towards the North and North West after snow has fallen followed by numerous sub zero nights...then trust me it would be a hell of alot harder to shift! If we were to be on the right side of a split with a complete wind reversal..ie ...East to West...it would be again difficult to shift that cold air due to the backwards momentum of a Wstly flow...obviously that's not to rule out a developing storm like 2018 which scuppered our freeze early on.. largely due too the split being so clean and extreme it sent the cold uppers flooding ridiculously far West,and hey presto...frigid uppers over warm ocean..and there's ya storm.

Edited December 4, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[feb1991blizzard]

here's the Dec 2010 redux - this is a proper blast - unlike the garbage we've just had.

[Allseasons-Si]

Drop the whole tpv into Scandi,...nice

[ICE COLD]

Here we go . Big northerly inbound

[Wold Topper]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

here's the Dec 2010 redux - this is a proper blast - unlike the garbage we've just had.

Steady as she goes, ducks in 'order' first spings to mind....

[Big Gally]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Drop the whole tpv into Scandi,...nice

[feb1991blizzard]

no marginality there - 0 or well below all day.

[ICE COLD]

What a chart . 5 days before Xmas .

[minus10]

Well we can dream..

[Allseasons-Si]

That should do

what a run but this is well in fl,lets get some consistancy over the next few days to a week first.

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, CameronWS said:

Do you mean when those dates appear on model runs or until when we actually get to those dates?

Totally prepared to be patient with the potential for a cold spell near the end of the month!

Into phase 7 on or around the 10th. This begins to apply conditions favourable for Atlantic wave breaking. Lag? Let’s say a week. So I’d expect to begin to see a shift in the pattern around 17 Dec though the lag may push that back a few days. And then the pattern needs to evolve. That takes more days. I’m thinking the Xmas period might be the sweet spot.

Models will begin to pick this up in a few more days. I reckon there are signs already in the GFS outer reaches….blocking signature showing it’s hand weekend 16/17 as a theme in op runs. Big U.K. block on the 18z tonight for that weekend. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The place has been oh so quite the last day or 2....GFS serves up a cracker with a core of the pv dropping literally over us...been on the pop again or picking up on some early drivers! It's seriously close to a boom chart tbh.

Most definitely a Kenneth ohhhhh moment though.

I'm waiting for the doomsters to say...thats far too West based.

Edited December 4, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Derecho]

There we are folks, the first 1095mb Greenland High I've seen in the model output since I've been watching back in 2005.

I think the GFS may be getting rather carried away but hopefully its picking up on something.... it didn't do too badly with that close northerly 10 days ago.

[Catacol]

24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not clear where this idea that there was ever a discussion that cold air over the U.K. would be too hard to shift 

it was the cold to our east that was under discussion (and it’s still there on the eps mean at day 10) 

the thought that we could see building heights over Scandinavia atop the frigid temps that might back west and hold the mild air back 

clearly that won’t happen but the cold air over scandi does survive for much longer than gfs (and other ops) often indicated late last week 

Eps control has brought week 2 mid lat high last two runs and gfs matches that 

Agreed. The cold block discussed was over Scandy. Historically this is typical. Hard to get a deeply cold and dense block over the warm waters surrounding the U.K.

[minus10]

Jet is all over the place.wave breaks ..no zonal train on this one...looking at what is happening across the pond with lack of cold predicted not adding fuel to the jet ..

[andy989]

I distinctly remember Kasim being jumped on for saying the cold air will be swept away easily. 

[Rocheydub]

6 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Jet is all over the place.wave breaks ..no zonal train on this one...looking at what is happening across the pond with lack of cold predicted not adding fuel to the jet ..

It's quite remarkable really, very unusual. Not that it's a precursor for any HLB, but at least it's not a hinder. Very interesting model watching this evening. Shannon E is warming her voice on honey.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Rocheydub
typo

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, andy989 said:

I distinctly remember Kasim being jumped on for saying the cold air will be swept away easily. 

K wasn't really jumped on for that..it was more there won't be any snow from it and hey presto a foot in the Lake District.. not to discredit Kas as he is very sincere and ultra knowledgeable.And he makes mistakes just like the rest of us.

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, Derecho said:

There we are folks, the first 1095mb Greenland High I've seen in the model output since I've been watching back in 2005.

I think the GFS may be getting rather carried away but hopefully its picking up on something.... it didn't do too badly with that close northerly 10 days ago.

That moved East a bit right, if this one does that, it would be perfect.