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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

Heavy snow showers and fronts by 23rd evening into the NW - by Xmas Eve morning the whole U.K. will be cold enough for wintery showers - remember in this set up you don’t need real cold uppers. 
0100 Xmas Eve the 528 is already covering most the U.K.!! 
 

its 1 run though  - still hoping for improvements overnight 🤞

IMG_1822.png

IMG_1823.png

Edited by Ali1977
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)

Not so good for longer term.. far more mess to our north… one theme I think there might be is when the pattern is quicker on the plunge longevity potential is reduced…

image.thumb.png.e4dc2117f2f456e2bc2c4745afbc7caf.png

Edited by TSNWK
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Control at T120 looks great I think, anyway it’s too late to wait for the ens- upgrades please 🤞🤞🤞

IMG_1826.png

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Downburst Seasoned

Downburst

Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Last one from me tonight but I think ec46 has pushed back the Atlantic 

 

yesterdsy versus today

image.thumb.png.5d0799f6971a7a94f0ae1234a16de7eb.pngimage.thumb.png.7cf2ec87c3a01e3d883f7dd37460c7e6.png

Yes, that’s interesting for sure. Not the normal setup that’s for sure, most winters let’s not forget it’s all blue. To your earlier point on the 46 day and into January. There’s a very high chance as winter progresses for very cold outbreaks from north and north east and there is ever increasing building block evidence for that. 

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted (edited)

Quite a significantly longer wavelength low pressure on the GFS 18Z ENS due to better phasing. This will allow for a slower evolution of the initial northerly resulting in a more prolonged period of winds from the north. Compare 12Z to 18Z mean.

gens-31-1-168.png

gens-31-1-162.png

Edited by Kasim Awan
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

What’s striking if we look beyond our location is the theme throighout winter so far for the vortex to not set up shop in its usual location of Greenland…

surley if that continues we can hit the jackpot!

image.thumb.png.c9baa46e3674166448628683bb43105d.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Control and mean,...in Symphony at 180👌

gensnh-0-1-180.thumb.png.d5de2f371459e6433c5321f1bf98d5c1.pnggensnh-31-1-180.thumb.png.29a3e019c5e3bdf9ff734024cef4e788.png

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Pixel Community Regular

Pixel

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Surprises
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
Posted
5 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

In the last few runs, Christmas Day has had northerlies, south-westerlies, north-westerlies, westerlies, and now northerlies again. I’m not trusting any run - nothing is any clearer despite the day getting closer!

What we need here on this forum is a dedicated Thread to what was predicted two weeks ago as opposed to what is happening now.

I've been here long enough to know this would make sense and could make for very interesting reading 😅

Tho I doubt it could ever exist... 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Mean 18z Xmas eve 

image.thumb.png.fe9e3770ef3fb32deb7b478fd028dee0.png

mean 12z

image.thumb.png.acfe4cd1879f725aee42de78be5d466d.png

big upgrade 

Yes there is a tight cluster of ens dragging the mean down towards -5 Christmas eve...

ens_image.thumb.png.b340686b20b92d7f285c58591feda5e6.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, Windysun1 said:

What are 850s showing? (sorry not in position to check)

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR
meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Mean achieved...

Untitled.thumb.png.3c99f0dd353546ec0cbce0e1dd330de0.png

ens_image(1).thumb.png.071c1c634b4a5e1a2dedd561ac464b72.png

Edited by Allseasons-Si
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Oh I don't trust it 🤣

Still, I'd rather upgrades than downgrades ..

I would rather it be the opposite lol. True upgrades happen on the 00z runs. If it happens on those then we have reason to be excited. 

Edited by blizzard81
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)

Interesting development in GFS ens quite a tight colder clustering from Christmas Eve mean dropping to -4C at 850hPa in London and -5C by Christmas Day. 

IMG_0749.thumb.jpeg.0e11c2cc432144c702f87aaefb6163d7.jpeg

Edited by Daniel*
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