Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

for umpteenth time the 12Z's appear better than the 00Z's, hopefully a better EC too

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Thanks Briciu..

With a sad heart I report to say my Dad lost his fight on Wednesday...he passed away peacefully with closest family around him. I'm gutted. So many things to now sort out and at such a terrible time of the year.

Hey..Xmas aint gonna be the same for me and I know that it won't be gr8 for many others on here also.. so I send you my best wishes.

I think my Dad would have wanted me to keep up with my passion for the weather,as he never liked to see me unhappy..so I will try to keep up with the occasional bit of input.

Don't get so downhearted over the models not really going for a cold and snowy Xmas! This is just a small part of the Winter duration....and we are here for the long haul.

I've noticed the mogrep 6z ens have a fair bit of support for colder around the big day, if it's cold enough or are there enough disturbances in the flow for snow will be the big question.

It's into the New Year where things could shake up... there are some signs of the strat taking a hit and just one look at that met update,with the hints of a more prolonged cold snap shows there models are perhaps sensing it out.

In the meantime folks try and enjoy your Xmas festivities and remember that a milder Xmas period means nothing for how the rest of the Winter could shape up.

God bless you all.

My Sincerest condolences  to you MATTWOLVES 3.  

[Kasim Awan]

GFS Ensembles are cut 5050 between mild south westerlies & cold northerlies on Boxing day.

[WYorksWeather]

Whilst we wait for the 12z ensembles to update, worth taking a look at the potential storm candidate for next Thursday.

UKV worst on Thursday morning (not updated to UKV 15z yet):

Arpege has arrival slightly later:

GFS similar to Arpege:

ICON really nasty for western Scotland:

Worth noting that ECM and GEM seem to pretty much miss to the north on their 12z runs, so no guarantee this will happen.

ECM has impacts restricted to the very far north of Scotland and islands, as does GEM. Should be noted that these are mean wind speed, so not entirely comparable to the other charts, but clear that most of the UK should avoid any significant impacts.

 

Well worth watching these over the coming days.

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by WYorksWeather

[Murray991]

Just for fun. Would be a Christmas to remember. 

[Vikos]

@MATTWOLVES 3 my deepest condolences… lost my dad 11y ago, today is my sons 12th birthday and just tonight I dreamed of him, he giving me a huge hug and telling me how proud he is. Pain goes away, remembering stays forever! 
 

As a lot is going on downstairs, on the roof things are quite interesting, this displacement of the sPV is giving me hopes for a cold start into January 

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Thanks Briciu..

With a sad heart I report to say my Dad lost his fight on Wednesday...he passed away peacefully with closest family around him. I'm gutted. So many things to now sort out and at such a terrible time of the year.

Hey..Xmas aint gonna be the same for me and I know that it won't be gr8 for many others on here also.. so I send you my best wishes.

I think my Dad would have wanted me to keep up with my passion for the weather,as he never liked to see me unhappy..so I will try to keep up with the occasional bit of input.

Don't get so downhearted over the models not really going for a cold and snowy Xmas! This is just a small part of the Winter duration....and we are here for the long haul.

I've noticed the mogrep 6z ens have a fair bit of support for colder around the big day, if it's cold enough or are there enough disturbances in the flow for snow will be the big question.

It's into the New Year where things could shake up... there are some signs of the strat taking a hit and just one look at that met update,with the hints of a more prolonged cold snap shows there models are perhaps sensing it out.

In the meantime folks try and enjoy your Xmas festivities and remember that a milder Xmas period means nothing for how the rest of the Winter could shape up.

God bless you all.

@MATTWOLVES 3 Thoughts are with you at this tough time. I lost my dad days before Xmas and it does add a sour note to the festive proceedings. It's tough, BUT, you have to work through it. Your hobby and your friends on NW, are all here for you, your positivity, and overall "It will" attitude will see you through (In time). Meanwhile take time to grieve, and come back when you feel you are ready.

 

[Jake March-Jones]

@MATTWOLVES 3 I have literally never interacted with you but have of course seen your sad news on here tonight. So sorry for your loss. We lost my father in law this time of year 6 years ago. It really makes the feelings at this time difficult to process but just know whatever you go through over the coming months is totally normal. Please reach out if you need help. I’m sure the entire community is with you x

[mountain shadow]

It's like groundhog day.

The Oz are poor then the 12z deliver apart from the ECM 12z ops.

Surely tonight the ECM op comes on board as it would be a surprise to see a big difference between the ECM and UKMO at t+144.

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

Have you even looked at the statistics? Out of 30 mild Septembers resulted 0 colder than average winters, 20 cold Septembers 12 resulted in cold Winters? It is a statistical link not physical yes, but still highly significant and not to be played down by bias.

Why would a specific 30 days period in the Earth's orbit (September) have an affect on the weather of a specific 90 day period (winter) in the Earth's orbit of which there are 61 days between the two periods?

[Dorsetbred]

6 minutes ago, Murray991 said:

Just for fun. Would be a Christmas to remember. 

Love it another of those "IF" events that are unlikely for the models to get correct, a bit like a lot of others right now.

[geordiekev]

40 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah, who would have thought. NH view makes even better viewing - yes it may get watered down and be less cold by 26/27th - but defo a festive feeling Xmas IF it happened - a nudge of heights into Greenland then snow certainly on for places even in the south by Xmas day . Cmon ECM !! 

What is it with weekend flip flops? I note someone mentioned 24th to 26th but defo less reliability run to run over weekends, hence I am waiting till tomorrow afternoon's for a better picture

[blizzard81]

Things were already looking much more positive earlier on with those much improved mogreps runs. So I'm not surprised to see a decent ukmo and improved gfs. Need to see a decent ecm this evening. That should help to settle a few nerves. 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's like groundhog day.

The Oz are poor then the 12z deliver apart from the ECM 12z ops.

Surely tonight the ECM op comes on board as it would be a surprise to see a big difference between the ECM and UKMO at t+144.

We want something along ukmo lines.

Ukmo has hardly been consistent though so who knows..

[nick sussex]

Looks like a Flash Gordon evening so far . Just when you thought it was over he stages a miraculous escape .

An improvement in the models but we do have the recent grinch model to come .

The last few weeks the models seem to have really struggled with these upstream shortwaves .

 

[Harsh Climate]

I think our future northerly/cold snap depends on whether or not this little feature blows up or not. Only 3/4 days away from it spawning so should soon find out. 

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[January Snowstorm]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looks like a Flash Gordon evening so far . Just when you thought it was over he stages a miraculous escape .

An improvement in the models but we do have the recent grinch model to come .

The last few weeks the models seem to have really struggled with these upstream shortwaves .

 

Your showing your age now Nick. Not many will know who Flash Gordon was lol  

Extraordinary developments, with the Icon usually close to ECM I'm confident of a good run! The ukmo really is the best sofar

[feb1991blizzard]

Interesting that the ensemble mean 850mb temps actually hit the lowest point on the 27th now, post the expected brief cold shot.

[northwestsnow]

Not  watching EC roll out  I think I might be a jinx.

@MATTWOLVES 3 really sorry to hear about your terrible news., my  Hope is  your dad is smiling down on you right now ..

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by northwestsnow

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Icon, JMA, and Gem have zero use for our shores, absolute fodder

Sorry but that's inaccurate. The Jma and GEM have been far more consistent the last few days than the so called big 3. They all have their use imo

[stewfox]

13 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

What is it with weekend flip flops? I note someone mentioned 24th to 26th but defo less reliability run to run over weekends, hence I am waiting till tomorrow afternoon's for a better picture

Flight data?. Not heard that this Christmas must be due now ?

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Your showing your age now Nick. Not many will know who Flash Gordon was lol  

Extraordinary developments, with the Icon usually close to ECM I'm confident of a good run! The ukmo really is the best sofar

Very funny . In my defence when I was a kid I used to enjoy watching the repeats over Christmas. So not as old to watch the originals ! 

It’s certainly been an eventful day so far . It’s a race between the troughing edging se and the upstream low edging east .

 

[fromey]

1 minute ago, stewfox said:

Flight data?. Not heard that this Christmas must be due now ?

It will be along soon along with “west based, uppers, Bartlett, etc etc!

[northwestsnow]

I dont want to get my hopes up before EC det comes out

[Polar Maritime]

OK, let's keep on topic and any problems report or discuss with the MOD team.

Thanks all

Condolences Matt  

Edited December 17, 2023 by Polar Maritime