Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Well that is something that i didn't know TBF so you learn something new in here,...so point me in the right direct Feb

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe dehttps://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=27&mois=12&annee=2023&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=0&type=1&para=0 ECMWF CEP

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe dehttps://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=27&mois=12&annee=2023&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=0&type=1&para=0 ECMWF CEP

 

Is there one for the gefs?,i can't see one?

 

[andy989]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

While we are waiting for our cold sypnotics to count down I would just like to give you a little date for your diary if the mods don't mind.

Brand new on channel 5 on New Year's day at 9pm. The Big Snow of 47. Looks  

Since you’ve advertised a programme, I’d thought I’d advertise my own programme.  I’m a filmmaker/cameraman and on 8th January a new series starts on BBC that I’ve spent a year filming. Following mountain rescue on the highest mountains in Wales (the highest peaks outside of Scotland). Some snow rescues on there too.  Huge respect to the rescue teams who keep a close eye on the models and have to go up no matter the weather. It’s a different world up on the tops. 
BBC 2, BBC 1 Wales and Iplayer. 
 

 

 

 

BBC One - SOS: Extreme Rescues - Clips

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Clips from SOS: Extreme Rescues

 

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by andy989

[Scandinavian High.]

Are we heading for  Scandinavian high here .

[Met4Cast]

For what it's worth, the GFS is currently verifying bottom of the back at day 10.

Seems to be really struggling to find a way forward at the moment.

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Are we heading for  Scandinavian high here .

Nope. 

Pretty poor days offering given we're expecting decent cold, tomorrow is another day.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

For what it's worth, the GFS is currently verifying bottom of the back at day 10.

Seems to be really struggling to find a way forward at the moment.

It is second on that plot, but why you’ve chosen 250 hPa heights at day 10 is a mystery!

[Mucka]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Todays 12z mean anomoly is just a firmed up version of yesterdays ? 
Yesterday 7/14                                          Today 6/13

.  

It’s not over the pole at any point ?  generally svaalbard/barents and then stretches across to central Greenland before returning back to svaalbard/barents. Not great considering what we were looking at a few days ago but could be worse and the mean at day 15 just begins to pick up a sniff of the warming over Asia that has begun to show on ncep 

 

It is getting rally tiresome having you contradict my posts.

Yesterday V today ECM mean.

That is a big difference, hardly a firming up and if you look at the 850 ensembles you will see another obvious difference.

 

 

On top of that I was pointing out a massive correction W of ECM which apparently you didn't notice, but hey.

I also correctly stated how the op was out of kilter with the other models and Yesterday's output was best ignored, you didn't.

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Cambrian
Removed overly personal comments

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

For what it's worth, the GFS is currently verifying bottom of the back at day 10.

Seems to be really struggling to find a way forward at the moment.

Cfs is last am i reading this right?

[feb1991blizzard]

23 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Is there one for the gefs?,i can't see one?

 

oh no - sorry - thought there was one for both - cant see one, there definitely used to be.

scrap that - it was the op.

Edited December 28, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

oh no - sorry - thought there was one for both - cant see one, there definitely used to be.

I am sure there was one too before that meteocial breakdown,...what caused that again?

thanks for the EPS mean one's though

[January Snowstorm]

So where are we tonight imo:

- Still no agreement on a route forward. Noteworthy that not one run in the last 2 days has delivered an Easterly or Northerly even in far FI. That's a worry!

- The strat warming pro's have gone quiet? Why because things have backed away from what they were showing 3 days ago. Still a minor type warming but will that do the business. Who knows, but the models are not excited.

- Cold continues out East and in fairness is ready to pounce if the charts improve. We can only hope they do.

- I don't buy the comments it's just a delay to cold etc. Be patient etc. We wouldn't be on here unless we had buckets of patience lol. I've heard it all over the years where cold gets shoved out and out until hey presto its April!

Folks the reality is by the 8th January most will likely not have seen snow. Indeed most will have seen little frost. More or less half of Winter burnt up. Let's remain positive that the Strat developments will get stronger again. What choice do we have...

[ICE COLD]

Well the only good thing from the gfs 18z run is a second warning finishing of the pv for good . This is all looking very poor now from where we were 4/5 days ago . Don’t like to be negative but it’s just feels like one big kick in the nuts . Fingers crossed we pull at least 1 decent spell of weather out of this .

[Mike Poole]

The 18z run is terrible!  Amplification never gets a proper foothold and fizzles out.

The one plus, is it looks like a second attempt to bring the strat down is gaining momentum at the end of the last few GFS runs:

I see @ICE COLD beat me to it!

Edited December 28, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Daniel*]

I’d say you can bet a small fortune we will see a spell of -NAO, there seems to be no avoiding it.

 

[Mucka]

Oh, and by the way, here is the specifics of the short range differences on ECM ensembles I was outlining

Yesterday V today for Jan 1st

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Cambrian
Removal of personal comments

[Battleground Snow]

Control looks better

Lots of twists and turns to come yet for sure

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Control looks better

Lots of twists and turns to come yet for sure

Yes that is so much better than the op . Coming along nicely

[January Snowstorm]

17 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Oh, and by the way, here is the specifics of the short range differences on ECM ensembles I was outlining

Yesterday V today for Jan 1st

 

For what it's worth I think you both add a huge amount to the forum and yes your opinion is valid and makes sense. I think we are all a bit downbeat at the moment but we are still very close to something special developing!

[Allseasons-Si]

No more off topic post's in here ,if you like to moan about what the models show,...head over here.

and please don't respond to off topic post's otherwise these post's will get removed too,thank you.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

You know what amazes me here?

Unless every run shows pure cold from a det run some keeps stating how the cold is not coming...it never comes...it always backs away....we've been here before! Even with the met being bullish about our cold chances....we will still end up with they must be wrong or they will correct the text write up the next day. You can't expect every model run especially an op run to be showing a pot of gold when it runs numerous times a day. 

Does it really help anyone to keep losing one's heads or getting over dramatic when a run does not show what you want it too!

These are weather models that are trying to predict a chaotic Atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere...they are not fool proof they are prone to flaws like all technology is,and guess what the human race is even more prone to faults than any amount of computing power...it makes mistakes....we make mistakes...we are in a much better place than many are giving it credit for.

I can see from many ens the attempts to get those Heights further North. The position looks solid the strat looks weaker than normal...and it looks likely that further weakening will continue as we move further into the season.

Patience is a virtue...lack of it is a head banger.

Edited December 28, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Purga]

Never mind, there's always the Control run

Finishes with a flourish of Norherly promise as well

[Dancerwithwings]

Hopefully we’ll be seeing more and more charts like these over the foreseeable coming days 

The price is right….Come on down

Edited December 29, 2023 by Dancerwithwings

[Allseasons-Si]

Swings on roundabouts really when it comes to the models,the 18z control run has an amplified run similar to the 12z op then the 18z op similar to the 12z control

this tells me that the models don't have a scooby on what is going on past day 6>,it all boils down to how the phasing of the lows out of the NE states behave at that said time

the 18z control does not phase with the downstream trough and it stays seperate and heads E/SE whereas the 18z op phases the low with the downstream trough and sends it NE

so lots to keep tabs on over the coming days

I know which one i would back but the gefs isn't that bad really

day ten...

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Hopefully we’ll be seeing more and more charts like these over the foreseeable coming days 

Yep. Could do with a few bone dry days, for sure.

That's about it, though.