Predictions for 2024

[Summer8906]

 damianslaw I would completely agree. A dominance of dull and damp cyclonic SW-lies almost unseen in any other year.

Other years had mild/wet Jan/Feb but those years tended to have a warm and sunny March.

Not a nice combination. Would have preferred cold, dull and wet to be honest. The problem with mild, dull and wet is that spring flowering still takes place, and the result could now be we end up with a very short spring - perhaps just three weeks or so, up to the May day holiday - though if we do get some cold snaps in the next two weeks, that will help extend it further into May.

 

Edited April 11 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 damianslaw I agree about the switches though would probably adjust the dates, and there was quite a lengthy period when it didn't seem especially dry or wet.

The first notable dry spell was from around September 1988 to June 1992.

Then mostly wet from July 1992 to Feb 1995 as you say.
 

Then mostly dry until Oct 1997. I see the dry-to-wet transition in 1997 as taking place at the start of Nov, as May, July, September and October 1997 were rather dry and only June was notably wet.

The wet spell then continued to April 2001, with it turning drier in May 2001 as you say continuing until around August 2006.

After that, from 2007-14 only 2012 and 2014 seemed notably wet as calendar years: the 2007-09 period seemed to be marked by wet summers rather than prolonged wet weather. 2010 and much of 2011 (except the summer) was dry.

2015-18 didn't seem especially wet but again had some poor summer periods.

The next wet spell I would set the date of onset as June 2019 rather than late 2018, as early 2019 was rather dry. This continued all the way until around October 2021.

There was then a brief dry spell from Nov 21-Aug 22.

Agree that the current wet spell set in around September 2022 and is probably the most marked since the turn-of-the-millennium wet spell.

In fact the past few years seem to have been notably wet: aside from the 9 months or so from Nov 21-Aug 22 there seems to have been a very strong emphasis on wet conditions since mid-2019.

Edited April 11 by Summer8906