Predictions for 2024

[AWD]

Off the cuff prediction for Spring & Summer 2024;

I think it will generally be warmer (very warm a lot of the time) & wetter than average.  That’s not to say there won’t be dry spells, and a heatwave or two, but I think the wet spells will outweigh the dry spells.

I think for convective/thundestorm fans, it could be a decent season with frequent periods of humid & moist air producing some “humdingers”!

Now, where do I also predict the lottery results…….?

Edited February 28 by AWD

[mcfcfan2008]

 B87 hopefully late march to early april maybe 

[mcfcfan2008]

 AWD i do not want another very wet summer at all last year was bad enough as it is 

[mcfcfan2008]

 Weather Enthusiast91 around the 23rd is when it starts to rain every year normally the 21st is the last summery day with sunshine then it just turns poor 

[Frigid]

 Derecho Yes pretty accurate so far, though I doubt May, June, July, October CETs would ever occur, in our lifetimes at least. 

[TheOgre]

I reckon March and April might go in a similar way to 2020 after the wet February or perhaps more like April 2022 to be more realistic as 2020 was exceptional. It’s been so wet for so long, that pattern must break eventually so I do think it will be drier from mid March and into April.

Edited February 29 by TheOgre

[Methuselah]

I'll only make one prediction for 2024: we'll not see a heatwave that surpasses 1976's 16 consecutive days with 90F maxima.   

[MP-R]

 lassie23 Yes please. That’s my birthday!

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Frigid it all hinges on whether we flip into la niña abruptly or whether it's more gradual, best case scenario is what we got in 1995 and 2016.   The worst case scenario is 1998 or 2007 where la niña developed abruptly and basically disrupted the rest of the year.   

[Scorcher]

 mcfcfan2008 Personally I would rather have an exceptionally sunny May than an exceptionally sunny August. I think there's a good few other people on here who feel the same.

Sunny Mays are special with the high sun and vibrant flowers/vegetation.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Scorcher so a 1998 or a 2007 like I've mentioned above would be your last resort for weather pretty much.   A 1995 or a 2016 would be lovely.    

[SunnyG]

 Methuselah From your mouth to God's ears

[LetItSnow!]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Was 2016 all that great for summer lovers? May 2016 had some fine weather at times and I remember the warm spell around 8th/9th but after that it gets patchy. The final day of the month locally was extremely wet with a band of rain stuck rotating overhead all day and dumped copious amounts of rain, fitting for what was to come in June. June 2016 locally perhaps was the wettest June ever recorded and maybe even one of the wettest ever months. It was persistently dull but warm nights meant it was a warm month overall. I remember  fine, warm day around the 6th before the really thundery spell started soon after. I think from the 8th to the 25th it was almost non-stop rain and thunderstorms with very little sun, including (which I’ve spoke about as nauseam) the most extreme thunderstorm I’ve ever witnessed on the 25th (London had flash floods as well on the 22nd/23rd but I was in NW Kent at the time). July 2016 was much more quiet and a lot dryer as well. The first half I remember being cool with a mixture of some bright days but cloudy at times too. It did turn hotter in the second half. August 2016 was fair though I don’t recall much memorable weather. It seemed to be a very dry month locally with only sparse rainfall but I don’t recall glorious sunshine. I do remember a very thundery spell on the 27th/28th but that didn’t effect us locally. September 2016 I remember better for the heatwave mid month but once again I don’t seem to remember it as a month with bucket loads of sunshine either though I think it continued the dry theme. After the unprecedented wet June the rest of 2016 was very dry here and it even made local news into early 2017 with fears of drought, though this collapsed into the summer. Certainly was a dryer period here though from 2016-2018 compared to before and since. 

[B87]

 LetItSnow! 2016 had a chilly March and April here. May was fairly sunny and warm.

June was one of the worst Junes ever recorded; the dullest on record and 7th wettest at Heathrow. Only 2 days reached 25c with a max of 25.9c. 2 days failed to reach 14c!

July was fairly average overall. The first half of the month was poor, with cloudy days and temperatures struggling around 20-23c. The 2nd half was much improved with plenty of sunny weather and mid to high 20s, peaking at 33.2c.

August had above average temperatures, below average rainfall, and at the time was the sunniest August since 2005 (not saying much). Temperatures generally stable in the mid 20s, peaking at 33.1c.

[LetItSnow!]

On 20/02/2024 at 17:22, LetItSnow! said:

March 2024: A very standard post '80s March with a couple glancing blows from the north-west that deliver cold rain to 95% of the country, otherwise unsettled. Duller, wetter and milder than average but with one spell of quite nice weather that lasts a couple days and sees us reach between 17-20C, but mostly unsettled.

April 2024: Very warm, very dry and very sunny. A classic April. Our first dry month since June. Probably a spell of very warm weather at least once or twice during the month that gets us into the mid-twenties but not to record levels. 

Crystal ball? More like plastic cube. April's guess is already very unlikely!

[SunnyG]

 LetItSnow! You didn't do so badly for March. Just got the warm days wrong, but that could still come true over Easter somewhere in the country... As for April, I doubt we'll get any considerable sun and warmth any time soon. Maybe in June, if we are lucky. Which, apparently, we aren't 

[LetItSnow!]

 SunnyG To be fair we did have some very mild days around the middle of the month but my memory is saying they weren't all that bright. 

Do I dare bore members of this website with a third set of predicitons? 

[B87]

 LetItSnow! Does the new set of predictions resemble a 1998-esque horror show?

[TheOgre]

My predictions weren’t too far off

[baddie]

 TheOgre You got January wrong, as there wasnt really any snow nor was it that wet after the first few days. You are spot on for February, and you got the last third of March wrong too. But your prediction was the closest I seen

[TheOgre]

 baddie  There was some snow showers yesterday and Wednesday in the southwest though so I’m taking it as a win

[WYorksWeather]

On 11/12/2023 at 23:09, WYorksWeather said:

January - starts relatively cool with overnight frosts, but nothing exceptional for the time of year. Around the 10th though, a powerful south-westerly airflow sets up, bringing a brief false spring, with temperatures reaching 15C somewhere in the UK for three or four days in a row. The predicted SSW happens in the middle of the month though, and after some more typical fare we see a major drop in temperatures with widespread snow and sub-zero daily means. CET finishes at 4C.

February - almost the opposite pattern to February. The SSW continues to impact our weather for several weeks, with snow continuing to lay on the ground through most of the first half of the month. A brief thaw around the second week, then a renewed cold spell mid-month. Towards the end of the month though, an unseasonably warm airmass comes in, near 15C at 850hPa, with 20C recorded at some point in the last ten days, but the rest of the second half is near-normal. Comes out below average at 4C, same as January.

March - an inauspicious start sees temperatures stay mostly around average, very much feeling like the start of spring though with a distinct lack of overnight frosts in the first half of the month. The second half then turns exceptionally warm, smashing the all time March record with 27C recorded at the end of the month. CET comes out at 8C.

Not too bad a CET guess at that sort of range for January and March, but February was completely wrong.

As for my description of the actual weather though - couldn't really be much more wrong. Far too changeable compared to the actual result.

On 11/12/2023 at 23:09, WYorksWeather said:

April - the first half of April continues to be warm and sunny, though not as abnormally hot as the end of March. A brief colder spell mid-month sees a few late ground frosts, but then it's back to warm and sunny, with temperatures usually reaching the mid or sometimes high-teens by day, but dropping well into single figures by night under clear skies. A very springlike month, but not overly mild on daily means with clear skies allowing nights to be quite cool even if not frosty. CET is 9C, but absolute max is only 24C, lower than March.

My April first half looks terrible. Second half could be closer if we do see a mid-month transition.

[damianslaw]

Might just be my state of mind, but is anyone feeling 2024 so far, the weather has been exceptionally uninspiring other than the 6-18 Jan, the only drier and sunnier spell than average. 

Edited April 10 by damianslaw

[raz.org.rain]

I still reckon we're in for a very abrupt and extreme flip at some point before summer arrives. We're likely to sleepwalk into some absurd heat and possible prolonged dry spells. Come august we'll looking back in awe at how ridiculous the abrupt flip from one extreme to the other was.

[damianslaw]

 raz.org.rain We have seen sudden changes in fortune from very dry to very wet and vice versa.. we shall see, ENSO state could be a key player, a change to a longer more neutral enso could be in our favour this summer, if you want dry weather, but a change to a stronger la nina may just prolong the wet theme. I've commented before how wet spells can last a few months or a few years...  pivotal transitions as follows:

June- July 92 from very dry to very wet lasting to Feb 95

Feb - Mar 95 very wet to very dry, lasting to April 97

Apr - May 97 very dry to very wet lasting to Dec 00

Dec 00- Jan 01 very wet to dry.. the next 6 years brought quire a few lengthy dry periods notably much of 2001, 2003 until later on, culminating in the very dry Nov 05 - July 06 period

Jul - Aug 06 very dry to very wet lasting to Nov 09.

Nov 09- Dec 09 very wet to dry, lasting to April 11

Apr 11- May 11 very dry to wet, lasting to Mar 12

Mar 12- Apr 12 very dry to very wet, the wet theme lasting a long time with brief blips all the way to April 18!

Apr 18 - Aug 18 a shortlived dry spell

Aug 18- Sept 18 dry to wet lasting to Mar 20

Mar 20- Apr 20 very wet to very dry, lasting to Sep 22, yes summer 21 was quite wet for some and winter 21-22 but not especially so.

Sep 22- Oct 22 dry to very wet, lasting to ? 

 

Edited April 10 by damianslaw